Baseball Prospectus

MLB Statistics

Statistics for All Levels

Plate Discipline

Preseason Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2019 Projections)

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 68)

Rank	Score	Name	Year	Run Average	Trend
1	82	Brian Sweeney	2011	0.00	DNP
2	80	Joe Beimel	2014	2.40
3	80	Ben Weber	2007	0.00	DNP
4	76	Steve Howe	1995	5.33
5	76	Ted Wilks	1953	9.82
6	75	Matt Herges	2007	3.33
7	74	Mike Stanton	2004	3.86
8	74	Mike Timlin	2003	3.98
9	74	Paul Lindblad	1979	0.00	DNP
10	74	Luis Ayala	2015	0.00	DNP
11	74	John Halama	2009	0.00	DNP
12	73	Mike Maddux	1999	3.92
13	73	Greg Swindell	2002	6.27
14	73	Dave Smith	1992	2.51
15	72	Scott Schoeneweis	2011	0.00	DNP
16	72	Sparky Lyle	1982	5.18
17	72	Shawn Camp	2013	7.04
18	72	Dave Giusti	1977	4.31
19	72	Marty Pattin	1980	4.04
20	72	Ramon Hernandez	1978	0.00	DNP
21	72	Graeme Lloyd	2004	0.00	DNP
22	71	Pedro Feliciano	2014	0.00	DNP
23	71	Craig Breslow	2018	0.00	DNP
24	71	Mike Jackson	2002	3.27
25	70	Clay Carroll	1978	2.25
26	70	Terry Leach	1991	3.74
27	70	Dick Drago	1982	0.00	DNP
28	70	Pete Walker	2006	7.20
29	70	Steve Reed	2002	2.01
30	69	Rich Rodriguez	2000	9.73
31	69	Dennis Lamp	1990	5.20
32	69	Mike Marshall	1980	6.40
33	68	Anthony Telford	2003	0.00	DNP
34	68	Joe Hoerner	1974	3.82
35	68	Tim Worrell	2005	5.55
36	68	Mike Magnante	2002	6.91
37	67	Hi Bell	1935	0.00	DNP
38	67	Ace Adams	1947	0.00	DNP
39	67	Jim Konstanty	1954	4.02
40	67	Rick White	2006	6.12
41	67	Pete Appleton	1941	9.15
42	67	Roger Mason	1995	0.00	DNP
43	67	Jose Mesa	2003	6.83
44	67	Bob Howry	2011	0.00	DNP
45	67	Tom Ferrick	1952	3.51
46	67	Ken Johnson	1970	9.00
47	67	Al Worthington	1966	2.56
48	67	Bud Byerly	1958	5.33
49	66	Clint Brown	1941	3.63
50	66	Art Fowler	1960	0.00	DNP
51	66	Waite Hoyt	1937	4.47
52	66	Joe Beggs	1948	0.00
53	66	Moe Drabowsky	1973	0.00	DNP
54	66	Rich Gossage	1989	3.41
55	66	Jeff Reardon	1993	4.96
56	66	David Weathers	2007	3.82
57	66	Jamie Walker	2009	5.84
58	66	Vic Darensbourg	2008	0.00	DNP
59	65	Brian Shouse	2006	4.23
60	65	Keiichi Yabu	2006	0.00	DNP
61	65	Paul Quantrill	2006	0.00	DNP
62	65	Bill Campbell	1986	4.20
63	65	Todd Jones	2005	2.34
64	65	Grant Jackson	1980	3.04
65	65	Fred Gladding	1973	4.60
66	65	Dan Quisenberry	1990	16.20
67	65	Mark Hendrickson	2011	5.73
68	65	Guillermo Mota	2011	3.81
69	65	Firpo Marberry	1936	5.73
70	65	Dick Tidrow	1984	10.91
71	65	Mike Cuellar	1974	3.54
72	65	Steve Farr	1994	6.99
73	64	Gene Garber	1985	3.79
74	64	Ron Kline	1969	6.10
75	64	Doug Bair	1987	5.93
76	64	Charlie Leibrandt	1994	0.00	DNP
77	64	Roberto Hernandez	2002	5.02
78	64	Ed Lopat	1955	4.58
79	64	Murry Dickson	1954	4.07
80	64	Ray Prim	1944	0.00	DNP
81	64	Roy Face	1965	2.95
82	64	Gary Lavelle	1986	0.00	DNP
83	64	Tom Martin	2007	4.91
84	64	Dick Hall	1968	5.28
85	64	J.C. Romero	2013	0.00	DNP
86	64	Brian Fuentes	2013	0.00	DNP
87	64	Bryan Corey	2011	0.00	DNP
88	64	Jerry Reuss	1986	6.93
89	64	Tom Burgmeier	1981	3.47
90	64	Jimmy Key	1998	4.42
91	64	Doyle Alexander	1988	4.79
92	64	Giovanni Carrara	2005	4.16
93	64	Yoshinori Tateyama	2013	0.00	DNP
94	63	Buddy Groom	2003	5.36
95	63	Dave Veres	2004	0.00	DNP
96	63	Ron Mahay	2008	3.76
97	63	Harry Gumbert	1947	4.18
98	63	Randy Choate	2013	2.29
99	63	Joey Eischen	2007	0.00	DNP
100	63	Jason Grimsley	2005	6.14

BP Annual Player Comments

Year		Comment
2016		Casey Janssen used to throw 93, used to miss bats, used to come in for the ninth inning. And Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee used to get to stand on the main stage at GOP debates. Sometimes big shifts can happen in four years, and for Janssen the the big shift involved a flattening curveball, slowing fastball and achy shoulder. Righties hit .284/.302/.500 against him, which is a fancy way of saying that his ceiling is a seventh-inning guy on a bad team.
2015		Janssen's 10-year career in the Blue Jays organization ended with a poor second-half performance, though that shouldn't erase the ninth-inning relief he's brought them. For Toronto, it's been relief in both senses of the word, much needed after B.J. Ryan's sour, volatile time. Janssen has led the Jays in saves over the past three years, stability the team hasn't seen since Billy Koch's reign from 2000-2002. His velocity has fallen for three straight years now—the only closers with lower velocity were Koji Uehara and Sergio Romo, both non-reliant on fastballs—but he has remained dependable and consistent with his signature command and cutter. His finesse should carry him into his mid-30s as a high-leverage reliever even if he doesn't remain in a ninth-inning role.
2014		Kenley Jansen? No, but the confusingly similar names are a salubrious reminder that closers are nearly indistinguishable at the bottom line: They pretty much all convert seven of every eight save chances. Janssen's outlandish 2012 strikeout-to-walk ratio fell to human levels in 2013 (though it was still excellent), but his home run rate dropped in compensation. Janssen's elite hit rate stayed stable, though, below seven per nine innings for the second straight year. How does he do it? His line-drive and infield-fly rates aren't especially out of step with the league. Instead, Janssen works the edges of the zone effectively and he's a heady pitcher who studies charts and video heavily. His brains should keep helping his modest stuff play up. The Jays gladly exercised their $4 million team option.
2013		After two years of serving as a solid middle reliever, Janssen received an opportunity to close after Sergio Santos was lost for the year with a right shoulder injury. Janssen converted 22 of 25 save chances while setting career bests in strikeouts, hits, and walks per nine innings. Not too shabby. Janssen is a versatile pitcher capable of working in any of the late innings, but not the overwhelming power arm of your typical major-league closer, relying more on deception and an above-average fastball/slider combination to retire hitters on either side. No one said typical was better.
2012		As improbable as Janssen’s success in 2010 seemed, his follow-up campaign was an improvement across the board. The only knock on his year was a month lost to a forearm strain. But despite his strong peripherals and 2.26 ERA, Janssen was used primarily in low-leverage situations. With the departure of both Jon Rauch and Frank Francisco, Janssen could become a more important part of the bullpen this season. He added yet another tick to his fastball and has grown to rely more on his cutter, which gives him a weapon against lefties that he once lacked.
2011		Janssen had a very good season—the kind that deserves to be rewarded. He transitioned to the bullpen in 2009 and gained comfort there in 2010. Used mostly in the seventh and eighth innings, Janssen dialed up his fastball a tick when pitching in relief. He likes to cut and sink his primary offering, which keeps hitters off-balance long enough to hit them with one of his two nifty breaking balls. With his shoulder injuries in the rearview mirror and his big frame apparently capable of handling a season’s workload, Janssen can be leaned on in big situations in 2011.
2010		After rehabbing in the minors following a 2008 season lost to labrum surgery, Janssen rejoined the Blue Jays’ crumbling rotation in late May with a couple of quality starts, but after being roughed up in two of three June outings he was shut back down with inflammation in his repaired shoulder. He returned in mid-August as a reliever with more strikeouts, but also more walks and, despite an early save, spent most of his time in low-leverage sixth-inning work. As a utility groundballer, Janssen should remain a modest asset capable of plugging emerging holes but seems unlikely to ever become a full-time solution to any of them.
2009		One of the team’s primary set-up men in 2007, Janssen underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum in his pitching shoulder last March and missed the entire season. Labrum surgery isn’t the death knell for a pitcher’s career that it once was, so expect Janssen to be in the mix again this year, possibly even as a starter. As long as the drop returns to Janssen’s low-90s sinker, he should pick up somewhere close to where he left off.
2008		In addition to four ground-balling starters, the Jays have a number of relievers who keep the ball down. Janssen's a big guy who could start for a number of teams, and pitched well in a set-up role most of last year despite a strikeout rate low enough to inspire concern. The Jays' depth in the bullpen was a big reason for their 83-79 record last season. Collectively, you have to expect some regression, particularly from Janssen, who will reprise his setup role this year.
2007		Think Brian Lawrence. Janssen is not a stuff guy, but he can be perfectly acceptable in front of a good infield defense, avoiding walks and generating enough ground balls to be a league-average starter. The Jays were a bit quick to pull the plug on him last year, demoting him to Syracuse after a series of frustrating outings in July. Guys like Janssen that pitch to contact are always going to have their ups and downs, like buoys bobbing on Lake Ontario.
2006		A 2004 4th-round pick, Janssen`s low-90s fastball is good enough that he doesn`t need to use his average breaking pitches that often. His control is also excellent -- his K-BB ratio was third in the minors among pitchers with at least 100 IP. Janssen was a level behind draft-mate Zach Jackson the entire way up the chain, but unlike Jackson, Janssen`s peripherals held up through three levels. He`ll have to fight through the rest of the talent in the system, but everything looks good so far.

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PITCHf/x Pitcher Profile

A Collaboration between BrooksBaseball.net and Baseball Prospectus - Pitch classifications provided by Pitch Info LLC

Although he has not thrown an MLB pitch in 2024, Casey Janssen threw 6,542 pitches that were tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2007 and 2015, including pitches thrown in . In 2015, he relied primarily on his Fourseam Fastball (89mph) and Cutter (88mph), also mixing in a Curve (74mph) and Slider (84mph). He also rarely threw a Change (82mph).