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Preseason Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2019 Projections)

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 73)

Rank	Score	Name	Year	DRC+	Trend
1	85	Tike Redman	2009	0	DNP
2	81	Shane Robinson	2017	82
3	80	Craig Gentry	2016	76
4	78	Alex Presley	2018	0	DNP
5	77	Chris Denorfia	2013	103
6	77	Tony Gwynn	2015	0	DNP
7	77	Eric Young	2017	89
8	77	Omar Quintanilla	2014	76
9	77	Emilio Bonifacio	2017	66
10	77	Scott Podsednik	2008	78
11	77	David Newhan	2006	79
12	77	Corey Patterson	2012	0	DNP
13	76	Jason Bourgeois	2014	90
14	76	Pablo Ozuna	2007	58
15	76	Ben Francisco	2014	0	DNP
16	76	Brendan Harris	2013	85
17	76	Jason Tyner	2009	0	DNP
18	75	Joe Inglett	2010	92
19	75	Daniel Robertson	2018	0	DNP
20	75	Adam Rosales	2015	85
21	74	Don Kelly	2012	76
22	74	Esteban German	2010	83
23	74	Ramon Santiago	2012	67
24	74	Jason Ellison	2010	0	DNP
25	74	Rajai Davis	2013	92
26	74	Timo Perez	2007	109
27	74	Dave Collins	1985	84
28	74	Chris Coghlan	2017	78
29	74	George Case	1948	0	DNP
30	74	Ramon Vazquez	2009	72
31	74	Chris Heisey	2017	67
32	74	Tuffy Gosewisch	2016	71
33	74	Andres Blanco	2016	84
34	73	Nyjer Morgan	2013	0	DNP
35	73	Alejandro De Aza	2016	80
36	73	Rob Mackowiak	2008	57
37	73	Nate McLouth	2014	69
38	73	Chad Curtis	2001	99
39	73	Dan Gladden	1990	91
40	73	Vince Coleman	1994	62
41	73	Jamey Carroll	2006	97
42	73	Bip Roberts	1996	81
43	73	Endy Chavez	2010	0	DNP
44	73	Nolan Reimold	2016	81
45	72	Alan Bannister	1984	110
46	72	Edgar Gonzalez	2010	0	DNP
47	72	Lonnie Smith	1988	84
48	72	Ryan Freel	2008	72
49	72	Tom McCraw	1973	91
50	72	Ted Uhlaender	1972	67
51	72	Jim Wohlford	1983	79
52	72	Brandon Barnes	2018	93
53	72	Chick Fullis	1933	100
54	72	Johnny Moore	1934	96
55	72	Melvin Mora	2004	147
56	72	Paulo Orlando	2018	52
57	72	Vinny Rottino	2012	81
58	72	Brett Gardner	2016	93
59	72	Bama Rowell	1948	72
60	72	Matt Treanor	2008	60
61	72	Fred Lewis	2013	0	DNP
62	72	Emil Brown	2007	76
63	71	Lloyd McClendon	1991	118
64	71	Jo-Jo Moore	1941	81
65	71	Jim Eisenreich	1991	91
66	71	Alfredo Amezaga	2010	0	DNP
67	71	Keith Ginter	2008	0	DNP
68	71	Ronny Cedeno	2015	0	DNP
69	71	Ty Cline	1971	95
70	71	Jarrod Dyson	2017	80
71	71	Jayson Nix	2015	0	DNP
72	71	Eric Bruntlett	2010	0	DNP
73	71	Manny Mota	1970	104
74	71	Jason Michaels	2008	83
75	71	Brian Bogusevic	2016	0	DNP
76	71	Willie Harris	2010	89
77	71	Billy Hatcher	1993	91
78	71	Peanuts Lowrey	1950	83
79	71	Ruben Sierra	1998	92
80	70	Robinson Chirinos	2016	97
81	70	Luis Polonia	1996	69
82	70	Cole Gillespie	2016	82
83	70	Mike McCormick	1949	66
84	70	Damian Jackson	2006	74
85	70	Gene Clines	1979	70
86	70	Grady Sizemore	2015	92
87	70	Jose Macias	2004	67
88	70	Kris Negron	2018	78
89	70	Koyie Hill	2011	59
90	70	Michael Bourn	2015	71
91	70	Ryan Roberts	2013	91
92	70	Jose Cardenal	1976	101
93	70	Rip Radcliff	1938	96
94	70	Dewayne Wise	2010	72
95	70	Max Flack	1922	92
96	70	Willie Bloomquist	2010	80
97	70	Jack Smith	1927	85
98	70	Kazuo Matsui	2008	92
99	70	Akinori Iwamura	2011	0	DNP
100	70	Brady Anderson	1996	153

BP Annual Player Comments

Year		Comment
2018		Just like a bad actor on a great television show that's in decline, Toronto’s ever-present fourth outfielder finally got his shot at an expanded role. As the Blue Jays ratings began to tank and everything seemed to go wrong, Carrera remained omnipresent, playing in a career-high 131 games and subsequently setting careers bests in nearly every offensive category. Zeke swung at fewer bad pitches, made better contact and even walked more. He still only managed to be marginally better than replacement level, but was somehow Toronto’s best-hitting outfielder in an outfield that included MLB's home run leader over the previous seven seasons.
2017		Carrera had the greatest season of his career as the left-handed fourth outfielder who could sometimes take a walk and was available when Jose Bautista was injured. Nothing extraordinary, but always around and playing a much bigger role than expected in the playoffs. That should serve him well as he continues to battle for playing time on the Blue Jays.
2016		Once signed as part of Omar Minaya's inaugural international class for the New York Mets, the Venezuelan outfielder finally managed to drag his career WARP into positive territory in 2015 by being nearly league average at the plate in a reserve role. Carrera is an extreme groundball hitter, which was much more helpful when he was fast, and he's able to play all three outfield positions, though that really depends on your definition of "play." With little power to speak of, Carrera is running out of chances to prove he should be on a major-league roster, even in a reserve role.
2015		In 2013, the city of Toledo ran a "You Will Do Better In Toledo" campaign to stimulate economic growth. It really should be the theme for Carrera, who was named an International League All-Star, leading the circuit in stolen bases and posting his first .300 batting line since 2009, in Double-A. After Austin Jackson was freighted out of town by the Tigers in July, Carrera found himself on the big-league roster platooning in center field for two months, but his subpar instincts and routes cost the team a few defensive runs, and other than occasionally bunting a single or stealing a base, he has little offensive value. He was signed to a minor-league deal by Toronto, but he would do better in Toledo.
2014		The Phillies swiped Ezequiel Carrera in an April waiver claim; the Indians swiped him back one month later. Fitting, considering his only skill is swiping bases.
2013		Carrera is a speedy Swiss Army knife, capable of manning left, center, or right, better deployed as a defensive replacement/pinch runner than in your lineup daily. Neither of his major-league samples is large enough to make sweeping judgments, but his inability to bring his minor-league strikeout-to-walk rate with him has made it tough for him to display his best asset: speed. Contact is a must for guys like him to get the most out of their skill set.
2012		Carrera has a skill set typical of many toolsy minor leaguers, most of whom wind up as bench players or Triple-A filler: plus speed, plus defense, no power, and a bat that will determine how much value he has to a major league team. Despite hip and hamstring injuries in 2010, Carrera's speed and defense were still very good this past season, during which he made his debut and filled in for various injured Indians outfielders. He could be a second-team starter in left or center if he can maintain the patience he showed in Triple-A this year and slap enough singles around.
2011		Outfielder Ezequiel Carrera has speed and some hitting ability, but doesn't walk, doesn't hit for power, and... bah, you know the type.
2010		A Venezuelan burner who led the Southern League in batting and on-base percentage, Carrera has no power and an arm than limits him to left, so he's a bench outfielder in the end. That said, speed, some range in a corner where the front office likes to see it, and a .467 OBP versus right-handed pitching in Double-A as a 22-year-old is worth keeping in mind.
2009		Part of the Putz package and now Mariners property, Ezequiel Carrera can fly in center and around the bases, and has decent upside.

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