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Preseason Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2019 Projections)

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 79)

Rank	Score	Name	Year	DRC+	Trend
1	94	Mark Loretta	2007	88
2	93	Red Schoendienst	1958	80
3	90	Frankie Frisch	1933	114
4	88	David Eckstein	2010	79
5	87	Ian Kinsler	2017	102
6	85	Johnny Temple	1963	103
7	83	Placido Polanco	2011	94
8	83	Marco Scutaro	2011	109
9	83	Fernando Vina	2004	76
10	83	Willie Randolph	1990	93
11	83	Eric Young	2002	87
12	82	Jimmy Rollins	2014	110
13	82	Brandon Phillips	2016	97
14	82	Johnny Pesky	1954	77
15	82	Orlando Hudson	2013	0	DNP
16	82	Carney Lansford	1992	102
17	82	Mark Ellis	2012	93
18	81	Rafael Furcal	2013	0	DNP
19	81	Yunel Escobar	2018	0	DNP
20	81	Eddie Collins	1922	108
21	81	Nellie Fox	1963	77
22	81	Buddy Bell	1987	112
23	80	Tony Graffanino	2007	97
24	80	Jamey Carroll	2009	90
25	80	Ozzie Smith	1990	83
26	80	Craig Counsell	2006	74
27	80	Bill Doran	1993	80
28	80	Solly Hemus	1958	107
29	80	Nick Punto	2013	81
30	79	Roberto Alomar	2003	84
31	79	Nomar Garciaparra	2009	95
32	79	Bobby Avila	1959	83
33	79	Ben Zobrist	2016	119
34	79	Frank Catalanotto	2009	88
35	79	Adam Kennedy	2011	84
36	79	Bill Madlock	1986	102
37	79	Alan Trammell	1993	130
38	79	Tim Raines	1995	115
39	79	Jimmy Johnston	1925	104
40	79	Shannon Stewart	2009	0	DNP
41	78	Jerry Lumpe	1968	0	DNP
42	78	Tony Gwynn	1995	128
43	78	Aaron Hill	2017	78
44	78	Orlando Cabrera	2010	86
45	78	Cal Ripken Jr.	1996	107
46	78	Keith Lockhart	2000	74
47	78	Don Mattingly	1996	0	DNP
48	78	Luis Castillo	2011	0	DNP
49	78	Alex Cora	2011	73
50	78	Harvey Kuenn	1966	90
51	78	Sam Rice	1925	101
52	78	Jim Gilliam	1964	89
53	77	Billy Goodman	1961	91
54	77	Tommy Helms	1976	108
55	77	Ray Durham	2007	81
56	77	Shane Victorino	2016	0	DNP
57	77	George Kell	1958	0	DNP
58	77	Jose Reyes	2018	72
59	77	Robinson Cano	2018	125
60	77	Cookie Rojas	1974	87
61	77	Pete Rose	1976	134
62	77	Lance Johnson	1999	73
63	77	Jeff Frye	2002	0	DNP
64	77	Taffy Wright	1947	119
65	77	Rip Radcliff	1941	87
66	77	Bill Spiers	2001	93
67	77	Del Pratt	1923	81
68	77	Bernie Allen	1974	0	DNP
69	77	Coco Crisp	2015	74
70	77	Bill Mueller	2006	97
71	76	Tom Herr	1991	94
72	76	Lenny Green	1968	94
73	76	Andy High	1933	82
74	76	Spike Owen	1996	0	DNP
75	76	Todd Walker	2008	0	DNP
76	76	Horace Clarke	1975	0	DNP
77	76	Scott Hatteberg	2005	89
78	76	Paul Lo Duca	2007	85
79	76	Lloyd Waner	1941	82
80	76	Dick Groat	1966	84
81	76	Brady Clark	2008	77
82	76	Pie Traynor	1934	96
83	76	Jack Tobin	1927	96
84	76	Cesar Tovar	1976	70
85	76	Matty Alou	1974	67
86	75	Dick McAuliffe	1975	67
87	75	Smoky Burgess	1962	119
88	75	Al Spangler	1969	82
89	75	Dave Roberts	2007	81
90	75	Mike Lowell	2009	102
91	75	Skip Schumaker	2015	70
92	75	Lou Finney	1946	89
93	75	Craig Biggio	2001	115
94	75	Julio Lugo	2011	65
95	75	Marty McManus	1935	0	DNP
96	75	Craig Grebeck	2000	94
97	75	Denny Walling	1989	105
98	75	Doug Mientkiewicz	2009	76
99	75	Bill Buckner	1985	101
100	75	Peanuts Lowrey	1953	88

BP Annual Player Comments

Year		Comment
2019		Due to publishing agreements, the 2019 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2019 book (available in hardcopy, and soon e-book and Kindle).
2018		Way back in 2007, Pedroia ended any hopes Alex Cora had at remaining an everyday player, emerging to become the AL Rookie of the Year. Now it might be time for Cora to end Pedroia’s everyday-player status in return. Boston’s preeminent sparkplug has averaged just 121 games over the past four years, battling injuries to his hands, wrists, hamstrings and now most seriously to his knee. We’d heard reports that Pedroia’s left knee was balky even before Manny Machado slammed into it in April. Who knows exactly how much damage that slide did, but Pedroia’s knee worsened to the point where he needed offseason surgery to repair it. The most optimistic estimates suggest he won’t return to action until May or June. Even if Pedroia were slated to start 2018 on time, Cora would be wise to make some changes because Pedroia looks every bit the part of a 34-year-old second baseman. He is now a below-average runner, his unfailing belief that he can always take the extra bag adding to Boston’s overall base-running malaise. FRAA has his glove at just around average, and while the eye test suggests he might still be a tick better, he’s no longer elite (though some metrics disagree). Couple those losses with power output that fluctuates between “surprisingly decent” and “almost nonexistent,” and Pedroia's once well-rounded skill set has quickly whittled down to his eye at the plate and his preternatural bat-to-ball ability. When healthy, Pedroia is still good enough to play often for a contender. He can still reach base at a solid clip, make some splash plays on the dirt and provide on-field leadership. But time waits for no man, and it is especially cruel to second basemen. Pedroia no longer belongs in the top third of a good lineup, and he should no longer be asked or expected to play every day. He needs time off. He needs time at DH. And he needs to admit when his injuries limit his effectiveness. Everything we know about Pedroia suggests he won’t enjoy this new reality, but perhaps he can remember the example his new manager set for him back in 2007. For the good of his own career and the good of the Red Sox’s chances through the end of his contract in 2021, he needs to.
2017		Pedroia has probably never heard of the typical aging curve for second basemen, but if you told him about it, he’d most definitely recommend sticking it up your you-know-where. In his age-32 season, the personification of all things grit posted his best offensive season since 2013, produced the second-highest batting average of his illustrious career and hit the ball harder than in any season since he won Rookie of the Year. Pedroia is no longer a force on the basepaths and his defense has declined from legendary to just good. However, by learning to hit leadoff—a role he’s admitted he hates—he’s reinvented himself to fit in perfectly with the new Killer Bs-led Red Sox. He’s got five years left on his contract, but maybe that’s not such a bad thing because Pedroia proved last season that when healthy (yes, that’s a big when) he’s still one of the game’s better middle infielders.
2016		Pedroia was on pace to have one of his better offensive seasons in recent history until a hamstring injury forced him to the DL in late June. The Muddy Chicken pushed himself to return in mid-July, but he clearly pushed too hard, re-aggravating the injury after six games and subsequently missing the next six weeks. When healthy, Pedroia showed surprising power, and he could have challenged for 20 bombs for the first time since since 2011 if he had received 600-plus PA. Unfortunately Pedroia also took a small step back in the field, proved that his base-stealing days are over and missed at least 20 games for the third time in the past five seasons. We knew all about second basemen and aging curves when he signed his eight-year extension in 2014. Pedroia still has the hit tool, glove and low AAV to make that deal look good, but we may need to start referencing his contract as “merely good” rather than “a massive steal” for the Red Sox. That's still a hell of a thing, and he is poised to remain an impact contributor even if, thanks to Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts, he's no longer Boston's best overall player.
2015		The New England Patriots have convinced Bostonians that following The Patriot Way—a kind moniker for the method by which they unceremoniously dump old, expensive players—is the only way to win. It's why people clamored for Jimmy Garoppolo after two bad games from Tom Brady, and it's why some wondered out loud if the Red Sox would be better of trading Pedroia and going with Mookie Betts at second base. That's a very silly idea. Sure, Pedroia is no longer the 20-steal, 20-homer threat he was in his mid-20s, as his power has unquestionably diminished. Yet he's still an elite defender, he still sees a ton of pitches per plate appearance and he's still potent at the plate when healthy. The “when healthy” caveat is a big one, and the day when we debate whether Pedroia should still be a top-of-the-order hitter might be closer than the Sox would prefer. But he's on an insanely team-friendly contract, can still post several 4-plus WARP seasons and is exactly the type of baseball nut you want around to help groom younger players. Boston doesn't deserve nice things.
2014		There are two items from 2013 that tell you just about everything you need to know about Pedroia. The first came on Opening Day, when he tore the ulnar collateral ligament in his thumb against the Yankees. Pedroia refused surgery once doctors told him he wouldn't cause further damage by playing, and that his level of play depended on his pain tolerance: Pedroia would finish with his third-best season by WARP while missing just two games. The second item is the extension he signed mid-season: Pedroia agreed to an eight-year, $110 million deal. When asked about the money he left on the table, Pedroia said, "I want to make sure the team I'm on wins more games than the other team's second baseman." (He probably meant "than the other second baseman's team," but dammit, Jim, he's a ballplayer, not an English professor.) The extraordinarily team-friendly annual price of his contract, combined with his continuous excellence, makes that dream a realistic possibility.
2013		Pedroia�s down year (by his standards) was due to a torn adductor muscle in his thumb suffered in early May and aggravated later in the month. He played through it before finally hitting the DL in July. After returning, the laser show resumed to the tune of .318/.372/.508 for the rest of the season. As for his gold glove defense (as opposed to Gold Glove defense), Pedroia still passes the eye test and nine out of 10 metrics agree, even if FRAA was the dissenter. He fractured his finger with three games left in the season, but even though the Red Sox were 23 games out of first place, he played the final two, going 4-for-11 with two doubles. Whether that was gutty or stupid depends on your point of view, but in the maelstrom of disappointment, ego, and blood-in-the-water media coverage that was the Red Sox' 2012, it made a point. When he's on the field, Pedroia is the centerpiece of the franchise. Now if only he can stay healthy.
2012		Pedroia returned from his injury-shortened 2010 campaign and surgery that inserted a screw into his foot to put up a season that made it seem like he never left. After slugging just .331 through May, Pedroia made every ball that came near the plate sorry for the transgression afterward, hitting .340/.405/.543 over his last 485 plate appearances, shoving himself in the middle of an MVP race that involved three different Red Sox hitters. Throw in his fine defensive work at second, and it's no wonder that the team is often at its best whenever Pedroia is too... September notwithstanding.
2011		Before succumbing to a broken foot that would later end his season, Pedroia was hitting .292/.370/.502, and was one game removed from a three-homer, five-hit performance against the Rockies. The Red Sox were just two games out of first place and tied for the wild card at the time of his demise, and while losing their diminutive second baseman didn't doom their playoff pursuit to failure, it played as large a role as any other injury. Pedroia and the Red Sox chose surgery, and a screw was inserted into his foot to aid the recovery process. Now entering his age-27 campaign, there is potential for a monster year here.
2010		In his follow-up to his MVP season, Pedroia lost 30 points of batting average, an additional 15 points of slugging, and saw his success rate on the bases drop to 71 percent. That�s more an indication of how good he was in 2008 than anything else. That he shed so little power is a good sign, particularly as the drop was largely the result of a likely fluky poor showing against lefties. Meanwhile, his strikeout/walk ratio jumped off the charts, as he drew 1.6 walks for every strikeout thereby maintaining his on-base percentage despite the drop in average. He was also good in the field, even ranking second among AL second basemen in UZR for the second year in a row. Still shy of his natural peak, Pedroia has affirmed his status as one of the game�s elite talents.
2009		Pedroia's nabbing Rookie of the Year and Most Valuable Player awards in consecutive seasons is a nifty trick, one that puts him alongside Cal Ripken, Jr. and Ryan Howard as the only players to accomplish the feat. He also had more doubles (54) than punchouts (52); he's the seventh player since 1977 with a minimum of 50 doubles to pull that off. Though Pedroia was far more productive at home�.344/.393/.519 with 35 of those doubles�he was no slouch on the road, with an impressive .309/.359/.468 that many teams would kill to get out of their second baseman. Pedroia's numbers lack any kind of BABIP-related concerns, meaning that as long as he keeps on using Fenway to his advantage, he's going to put up impressive campaigns at the plate.
2008		Pedroia's Rookie of the Year season almost never was. After a .182/.308/.236 April, he was losing playing time to Alex Cora as May began. On a road trip to Minnesota and Toronto, he went 9-for-14, saving his job, and by June he was established as a regular hitting in one of the top two lineup spots. He should have more walks and thus a higher OBP in him, but could lose some power, most of which is a Fenway effect (.151 ISO at home, .098 on the road).
2007		This PECOTA favorite tends to excite statheads more than scouts. The former cite his impressive plate discipline and gap power--a good offensive package for a middle infielder--while the latter caution against his small size, unimpressive speed, and lack of the arm strength or range to play shortstop. But really, it`s a question of degree; he should be a very good middle infielder in the majors for years to come. Overcoming a slow start (.261/.352/.359 through May), Pedroia put up very good numbers in Pawtucket, walking nearly twice as often as he struck out and continuing to show gap power. With Hanley Ramirez traded to Florida, he moved back to shortstop and didn`t embarrass himself there; he also saw considerable time at second base, his likely role with the Sox in 2007.
2006		The team`s first pick in the 2004 draft, Pedroia sped through four levels to get to the doorstop of the major leagues. He played shortstop at Arizona State, but the team moved him to second base last year, pairing him with Hanley Ramirez in Portland. His only above-average tool is his bat, but he continues to impress with it. His hitting slowed down at bit in Pawtucket when he was hit by a pitch in the left wrist. Pedroia was due to compete for the second base job before the Mark Loretta acquisition. He might see time back at shortstop, but more likely will spend a full year at Pawtucket.
2005		The first pick by the Sox in the 2004 draft, Pedroia was a superstar at Arizona State, All-Pac-10 all three seasons, once Pac-10 player of the year, and twice National Defensive Player of the Year. He slipped to the Sox at 65th overall because he's only 5'8", but the organization loves him. Though he won't show much power, he hits for a high average and keeps his walks up. His pro debut saw him blitz through the Sally League before performing well at high-A Sarasota. The presence of the newly signed Edgar Renteria and Hanley Ramirez plus Pedroia's size mean his future is most likely on the other side of second. He could quickly turn into the player everyone in Anaheim thought David Eckstein was.

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