Baseball Prospectus

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Statistics For All Levels

Plate Discipline

Preseason Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2019 Projections)

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 80)

Rank	Score	Name	Year	DRC+	Trend
1	87	Sherm Lollar	1961	110
2	85	Hank Gowdy	1926	0	DNP
3	85	Bill Dickey	1943	153
4	83	Alan Ashby	1988	101
5	83	Kevin Millar	2008	105
6	83	Carl Sawatski	1964	0	DNP
7	83	Lyle Overbay	2013	91
8	83	Jorge Posada	2008	104
9	83	Ernie Whitt	1988	120
10	83	Ryan Klesko	2007	90
11	82	Roy Campanella	1958	0	DNP
12	82	Aaron Robinson	1951	90
13	82	Bubbles Hargrave	1929	0	DNP
14	82	John Wockenfuss	1985	90
15	82	Jason Varitek	2008	80
16	82	Will Clark	2000	139
17	82	Adam LaRoche	2016	0	DNP
18	82	Andre Thornton	1986	113
19	81	Gary Carter	1990	114
20	81	Rocky Nelson	1961	89
21	81	Johnny Roseboro	1969	96
22	81	Harold Baines	1995	147
23	81	Bobby Abreu	2010	117
24	81	A.J. Ellis	2017	88
25	81	Joe Judge	1930	123
26	81	Gates Brown	1975	103
27	81	Carlton Fisk	1984	108
28	81	Kosuke Fukudome	2013	0	DNP
29	81	Bobby Murcer	1982	103
30	81	Ron Fairly	1975	136
31	81	Terry Crowley	1983	88
32	80	Tim Salmon	2005	0	DNP
33	80	Hideki Matsui	2010	126
34	80	Don Slaught	1995	91
35	80	Ron Hassey	1989	88
36	80	Ramon Hernandez	2012	66
37	80	Yogi Berra	1961	117
38	80	Cliff Floyd	2009	62
39	80	Aubrey Huff	2013	0	DNP
40	80	Don Baylor	1985	112
41	80	Julio Franco	1995	0	DNP
42	80	Ray Boone	1960	88
43	80	Gene Woodling	1959	132
44	80	Todd Zeile	2002	103
45	80	Enos Slaughter	1952	111
46	80	Don Money	1983	67
47	80	Jerry Hairston	1988	87
48	80	Carl Yastrzemski	1976	127
49	79	Oscar Gamble	1986	0	DNP
50	79	Travis Hafner	2013	94
51	79	Johnny Grubb	1985	109
52	79	Brian Downing	1987	133
53	79	Rico Carty	1976	139
54	79	David Justice	2002	108
55	79	Joe Kuhel	1942	96
56	79	Eduardo Perez	2006	98
57	79	Gary Matthews	1987	78
58	79	Darren Daulton	1998	0	DNP
59	79	Rance Mulliniks	1992	98
60	79	Smoky Burgess	1963	112
61	79	Monte Irvin	1955	90
62	79	Chris Chambliss	1985	89
63	79	Earl Torgeson	1960	125
64	79	Mark DeRosa	2011	77
65	79	Norm Cash	1971	146
66	79	Tim McCarver	1978	96
67	79	Wally Joyner	1998	112
68	79	Harry Hooper	1924	121
69	79	Tom Haller	1973	0	DNP
70	79	Todd Pratt	2003	106
71	79	J.D. Drew	2012	0	DNP
72	79	Roy White	1980	0	DNP
73	78	Don Padgett	1948	70
74	78	Minnie Minoso	1962	66
75	78	Bill White	1970	0	DNP
76	78	Adrian Gonzalez	2018	92
77	78	Keith Hernandez	1990	79
78	78	Wally Moon	1966	0	DNP
79	78	Melvin Mora	2008	116
80	78	David Ross	2013	68
81	78	Carlos Ruiz	2015	80
82	78	Davey Johnson	1979	0	DNP
83	78	Brady Anderson	2000	110
84	78	Riggs Stephenson	1934	85
85	78	Rafael Palmeiro	2001	148
86	78	Wally Schang	1926	106
87	78	Merv Rettenmund	1979	100
88	78	George Harper	1928	123
89	78	Gregg Zaun	2007	101
90	78	Chet Lemon	1991	0	DNP
91	78	Jim Dwyer	1986	116
92	78	Johnny Damon	2010	102
93	78	Sal Bando	1980	87
94	78	Justin Morneau	2017	0	DNP
95	77	Jeff Reed	1999	81
96	77	Rusty Staub	1980	118
97	77	Dave Hansen	2005	82
98	77	Mark Teixeira	2016	85
99	77	Todd Helton	2010	101
100	77	Don Buford	1973	0	DNP

BP Annual Player Comments

Year		Comment
2019		Due to publishing agreements, the 2019 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2019 book (available in hardcopy, and soon e-book and Kindle).
2018		Here's how important Martin was to the Blue Jays in 2017: When he was out with an injury or simply needed a day off, their backup catchers hit a combined .155/.216/.267 and threw out just 14 of 85 basestealers. It's hard to imagine a non-star player being that invaluable to a club, but that's where the Jays are with Martin and have been for a couple years. While his hitting has slipped of late and the strikeouts are piling up, that he's still providing even league-average offense and defense behind the plate means that he's still a very useful player as he gets into his mid-thirties.
2017		Martin was freed of having to catch a knuckleball in 2016, but it didn’t save him from issues both at the plate and behind it. He’s still an elite framer and fixed his blocking issues from 2015 (which were likely heavily attributed to the knuckleball), but his ability to control the running game disappeared. Yes, some of that is on the pitchers, but Martin still fell from a league-best 44 percent caught stealing to a league-worst 15 percent. That being said, he’s still clearly an above-average defensive catcher. The worries going forward are stronger on the offensive side. Martin’s contact rate fell to a career-worst 69.9 percent, which was almost six percentage points off his previous career-low. As a result, his batting average fell to .231 and he struck out 40 times more than his previous high. He was still plenty useful as a hitter, as his power and walks remained, but there are definite reasons to worry. The hope is that a better backup and more rest will help Martin rebound, as at age 34 his best days are likely behind him.
2016		It was a successful homecoming (of sorts) for Martin in 2015, who nudged out the prior record-holder for most WARP recorded by a Canada-born player for the lone remaining team calling the Great White North home. When the tattooed one who now sits in second place was traded, a crying child became a YouTube sensation; Martin's tenure is sure to end with a misty-eyed salute from an entire stadium. Of course, the $75 million remaining on his contract means that reaction won't be warranted for quite some time. He continued to be a well-above-average framer and threw out baserunners at a career-high 44 percent clip, but he also showed up as the worst catcher in baseball at preventing wild pitches and passed balls via our new advanced catcher metrics. At the plate, Martin crushed left-handers to the tune of a .937 OPS with more walks than strikeouts, but his .306 on-base percentage without the platoon advantage was a far cry from the .363 mark he's put up over the last two seasons. His reputation for leadership and his demeanor on the field mean he'll continue to have perceived value (and maybe real value) even as his measurables give way to the all-consuming specter of age.
2015		Had Zora Neale Hurston worried about baseball, she might have written, "Free agents at a distance have every team's wish on board." Martin's tenure with the Pirates made him the rare free-agent signing who exceeded expectations. He missed about a month with thigh issues in 2014 and had the best offensive season of his career anyway. His trademark defense remained strong, headed by excellent receiving. When the Pirates signed Martin, some wondered why they would do that. With the Pirates letting him walk in free agency, those same people are wondering why they would do that. It's a testament to Martin that he became a piece of the Pittsburgh tapestry so quickly. Now, two years older than the last time around, he'll try to repeat the feat in Toronto after the Blue Jays signed him to a backloaded five-year deal.
2014		The marquee acquisition of the Huntington era, Martin's two-year deal worth $17 million looked like a bargain in year one. Martin continued his consistency at the plate by finishing with a True Average between .250 and .259 for the fifth year in a row. Defensively, he was an appreciable upgrade over Rod Barajas, not just in throwing runners out but in receiving the ball as well. Martin also tallied 500 plate appearances for the first time since leaving Los Angeles, easing concerns about his durability. It wasn't a slam-dunk signing at the time, but Martin has the chance to make it one in retrospect with another strong season.
2013		According to his own spring training statements, Martin has reported to camp in the best shape of his life for five consecutive seasons. (By the time you read this, he may have made it six.) Whatever workout plan has made his annual proclamation so predictable has had the same effect on his on-field performance. Since his heyday as a hitter with the Dodgers, Martin has settled in as a slightly above-average offensive catcher, a slightly above-average thrower, and a slightly above-average blocker. However, he has distinguished himself to an even greater degree as a receiver. According to Max Marchi’s estimates, Martin saved nearly 90 runs due to framing from 2008-12, the third most among backstops behind Jose Molina and Brian McCann. Some fans won’t care about framing until it becomes a category in their fantasy leagues, but Martin’s work with the glove meant more to the Yankees than his career-high home-run total, and figures to mean more still to the catching-starved Pirates.
2012		The Dodgers non-tendered Martin after the 2010 season rather than risk arbitration. McCourt's team was always penurious and rarely smart, but their decision was not entirely unreasonable given Martin's offensive stagnation and season-ending hairline pelvic fracture. Initially, the Yankees seemed to have made one of their all-time great moves when Martin, who proved to be better than advertised on defense, exploded out of the gates with a six-homer, .293 April. He had a similar period of torrid hitting in August, but otherwise proved to be a non-factor at the plate. Behind it, though, he threw well and according to research by BP's Mike Fast was among the best in the game at getting his pitchers extra strikes via adept framing. With the Canuck catcher in his final year of arbitration, it would not be surprising if the Yankees have signed him to a new contract by the time you read this.
2011		Martin spent the winter of 2008-2009 using yoga to improve his flexibility, but when his power dissipated, he chose to bulk up, arriving at camp weighing 231 pounds, 25 heavier than the year before. The weight didn't restore his power; his 2010 was essentially a foreshortened carbon copy of his 2009 campaign, ending in early August by a hairline pelvic fracture. With Martin's salary scheduled to increase from $5.05 million via arbitration, the Dodgers non-tendered him. The Yankees signed him to a contract with a base of $4 million that can rise to over $5 million with incentives, and named him their starting catcher, health permitting. Despite his decline, the Dodgers will miss Martin: his high OBPs and plus defense (39 percent caught stealing, third in the NL) make replacing him a nontrivial matter, particularly given a system devoid of near-ready catching prospects. As for the Yankees, Martin's defense will serve as a nice contrast to Jorge Posada's, but with no reason for pitchers to work around him, the last remaining vestige of his early offense may crumble.
2010		The Dodgers seem hell-bent on breaking Martin, who led the majors in innings caught for the second year out of three. Between that and an off-season training regimen which was supposed to slim him down but which ended up costing him strength, he had his worst season with the stick, declining by at least 30 points in all three triple-slash categories. Though he maintained some measure of plate discipline—no small thing amid a season-long slump—his power vanished almost completely; he didn't homer until June 20, reached a .400 slugging percentage in just one month out of six, and posted the majors' sixth-lowest ISO figure among batting title qualifiers. His defense did improve; he caught 31 percent of basestealers, and was charged with just three passed balls, but the Dodger staff ranked second in the league in wild pitches, and Martin's struggles with blocking balls in the dirt were apparent for all to see in the postseason. He's on the Jason Kendall career path, not exactly a good thing, and with the system bereft of viable replacements, he really needs to rebound to justify his rising salary.
2009		In last year’s book, we predicted Joe Torre would better manage Martin’s workload to avoid late-season burnout as he had with Jorge Posada. Our bad, because if anything, Torre exacerbated the problem by playing Martin at third base—his pre-conversion position—instead of resting him, sometimes shifting him back behind the plate late in games. Martin logged more innings than any backstop other than Jason Kendall and slumped to a punchless .260/.371/.336 in the second half after a .294/.394/.436 first half. Furthermore, his caught stealing percentage slipped from 33 percent to 24 percent, and his brashness irritated the brass to the point that he became subject of Hot Stove trade rumors. Martin is still an asset, but amid the bumper crop of good young NL catchers—Brian McCann, Geovany Soto, and Chris Iannetta—future All-Star honors are not guaranteed.
2008		Martin took another great leap forward last year, improving his power, plate discipline, and defense on the way to leading NL catchers in VORP, WARP, and caught-stealing percentage and winning a Gold Glove. He was almost too good, as his 1,254 innings behind the plate-a single-season total surpassed only by Jason Kendall in the past decade-likely led to a .259/.330/.395 September slump. Durable as Martin may be, former catcher Grady Little should have eased off the throttle. Joe Torre's shown a decent ability to modulate Jorge Posada's usage to avoid late-season burnout; expect him to take a stronger hand here, and for Martin to spend the next few years battling Brian McCann for the title of the league's best catcher. PECOTA likes McCann more based on his body type, power, and ability to hit for average, but Martin's speed, defense, and durability ain't hay, and he's out-WARPed his Atlanta rival by two wins over the past two years.
2007		Martin drew an Honorable Mention on our Top-50 Prospects list last year after an excellent season in Jacksonville, but with just three years of catching under his belt and young Dioner Navarro in place, he appeared ticketed for Triple-A in 2006. When a bone bruise felled Navarro in early May, Martin got the call, and the result marked the turning point of the team`s season. The Dodgers won 16 of Martin`s first 18 starts; Navarro was Wally Pipped out of a job and dealt to Tampa Bay. By season`s end, the Dodgers were 71-43 in games Martin started. There is little not to like about Martin`s game; he showed durability, solid on-base skills, developing power, above-average speed for a backstop, adept handling of pitchers, and excellent defense. He threw out 31 percent of attempted thieves and averaged 0.27 non-stealing assists per game; the team`s other backstops cut down just 13 percent and averaged 0.14 assists per game. The Dodgers have themselves a long-term asset at a key position--but what an ill-starred lot of comparables PECOTA came up with, undone by a plane crash, Parkinson`s, and Pete Rose. Martin might want to take out an insurance policy or three.
2006		A year older than Navarro but at least a year behind him developmentally, Martin is nonetheless the backstop with more upside. He had a strong season at Jacksonville, showing outstanding plate discipline, reasonable power, and even some speed while cementing his place as one of the Dodgers` best prospects. Converted from third base prior to 2003, he made good strides behind the plate under the tutelage of Jacksonville coach Steve Yeager. He drew praise for a strong arm, improved receiving skills, and his handling of pitchers. He`ll likely spend the season in Vegas, but the Dodgers can look forward to a young, productive tandem behind the plate.
2005		A power/patience catcher who held his own at Vero Beach. So far during his career, he's walked more than he's struck out, a rare, attractive feat. He's had a surprisingly low average for a guy who's struck out so rarely, and he's actually shown some speed on the field, which makes you wonder how long he'll have either (a) the speed, or (b) any time actually catching, rather than moving to another position. Defensively, the jury's out, but he's done well enough to keep getting penciled in there, and he's young enough to learn the craft.

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