Baseball Prospectus

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Plate Discipline

Preseason Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2019 Projections)

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 80)

Rank	Score	Name	Year	DRC+	Trend
1	91	Juan Uribe	2016	77
2	90	Joe Randa	2007	0	DNP
3	88	Richie Hebner	1985	77
4	88	Denny Walling	1991	59
5	88	Adam Kennedy	2013	0	DNP
6	88	Mark DeRosa	2012	74
7	87	Frank Baker	1923	0	DNP
8	87	Doug Decinces	1988	0	DNP
9	87	Scott Rolen	2012	92
10	87	Pie Traynor	1936	0	DNP
11	86	Miguel Tejada	2011	73
12	86	Cal Ripken Jr.	1998	90
13	86	Todd Zeile	2003	92
14	86	Brooks Robinson	1974	112
15	86	Michael Young	2014	0	DNP
16	86	Melvin Mora	2009	89
17	85	Geoff Blum	2010	81
18	85	Sal Bando	1981	90
19	85	Ken Boyer	1968	104
20	85	Eric Chavez	2015	0	DNP
21	84	Ed Charles	1970	0	DNP
22	84	Phil Garner	1986	102
23	84	Tim Wallach	1995	93
24	83	Larry Gardner	1923	98
25	83	Carlos Baerga	2006	0	DNP
26	82	Jay Bell	2003	82
27	82	Bob Elliott	1954	0	DNP
28	81	Jose Pagan	1972	96
29	80	Buddy Bell	1989	78
30	80	Matt Williams	2003	93
31	80	Jimmy Johnston	1927	0	DNP
32	80	Charlie Hayes	2002	0	DNP
33	80	Del Pratt	1925	0	DNP
34	79	Ken Griffey	1987	109
35	79	Casey Blake	2011	83
36	79	Heinie Manush	1939	66
37	79	Tino Martinez	2005	111
38	79	Aramis Ramirez	2015	96
39	79	Mark Ellis	2014	60
40	78	Jeff Cirillo	2007	83
41	78	Jimmy Dykes	1934	93
42	78	Bobby Veach	1925	105
43	78	Chris Chambliss	1986	98
44	78	Ted Kluszewski	1962	0	DNP
45	78	Graig Nettles	1982	105
46	78	Goose Goslin	1938	85
47	78	Rich Aurilia	2009	62
48	78	Carl Furillo	1959	83
49	78	B.J. Surhoff	2002	93
50	78	Bing Miller	1932	97
51	78	Frank Malzone	1967	0	DNP
52	78	Jeff Conine	2003	111
53	78	Tony Oliva	1976	67
54	78	Bud Stewart	1953	120
55	78	Bobby Bonilla	2000	98
56	78	Garret Anderson	2009	87
57	78	Pete Rose	1978	111
58	78	Mike Sweeney	2011	0	DNP
59	77	Lyle Overbay	2014	92
60	77	Jerry Hairston	2013	81
61	77	Andy Pafko	1958	86
62	77	Steve Finley	2002	122
63	77	Chris Gomez	2008	78
64	77	Alan Trammell	1995	91
65	77	Eddie Brown	1929	0	DNP
66	77	Damion Easley	2007	118
67	77	Brian Jordan	2004	74
68	77	Randy Winn	2011	0	DNP
69	77	Roberto Alomar	2005	0	DNP
70	77	Don Money	1984	0	DNP
71	77	Brian Roberts	2015	0	DNP
72	77	Miguel Cairo	2011	103
73	77	Jim Davenport	1971	0	DNP
74	77	Lou Piniella	1981	117
75	77	Ray Durham	2009	0	DNP
76	76	Edd Roush	1930	0	DNP
77	76	Dale Long	1963	81
78	76	Joe Kuhel	1943	95
79	76	Randy Velarde	2000	98
80	76	Pedro Guerrero	1993	0	DNP
81	76	Ray Boone	1961	0	DNP
82	76	Willie Bloomquist	2015	61
83	76	Joe Torre	1978	0	DNP
84	76	Tom Brookens	1991	0	DNP
85	76	Gary Redus	1994	85
86	76	Ryne Sandberg	1997	77
87	76	Jorge Orta	1988	0	DNP
88	76	Kevin Millar	2009	93
89	76	Gary Carter	1991	99
90	76	Felipe Alou	1972	108
91	76	Bill Madlock	1988	0	DNP
92	76	Chuck Klein	1942	73
93	76	Mike Lowell	2011	0	DNP
94	76	Chris Speier	1987	101
95	76	Sherm Lollar	1962	95
96	76	David Segui	2004	91
97	76	Rod Barajas	2013	0	DNP
98	76	Ted Simmons	1987	94
99	76	Frank McCormick	1948	87
100	76	Tony Fernandez	1999	122

BP Annual Player Comments

Year		Comment
2018		Enron stock declined more gently than Jhonny Peralta. He was released by the Cardinals on June 13, then by the Red Sox exactly one month later.
2017		It’s been years since Peralta looked like a normal shortstop and last summer he finally stopped fielding like one, as the husky veteran looked stiff and immobile and spent most of his time at third base leaking puddles of value onto the infield dirt. Even worse, the thumb injury that cost him most of the first half seemed to affect his swing and his approach, as Peralta’s walk rate plummeted and he posted a .248/.283/.403 line through August before righting the ship somewhat down the stretch. At age 35 he may never again be a viable answer at shortstop or swing enough lumber for the hot corner, but Peralta has long defied expectations and his career descent may well follow the long, slow Juan Uribe glide path.
2016		From the spelling of his first name to his defensive reputation and career arc, nothing is ever what it seems with Peralta—not even his contract. Most free-agent pacts are structured so the dollars are paid out evenly or at an escalating rate, as a means for teams to save coins using the time value of money. Peralta's is not. Halfway through his four-year deal, he's already made nearly 60 percent ($30.5 million) of the contract's total payout ($53 million). It's turned out to be a beneficial arrangement for both sides, since Peralta makes more money than he would have otherwise, and the Cardinals will have less of their budget promised to shortstop entering his mid-30s. Not that Peralta's age is affecting him yet. He had another solid season at the plate (his fourth above-average effort in five tries), and his ability to actually improve as a shortstop in his 30s (and with his body type!) gives hope to every old Buick out there. Peralta's contract didn't look like a steal at the time, but it's proved to be a bargain of a deal, albeit an unusual one.
2015		Peralta has had one of the more interesting careers around, as the former Indian was exiled to third base due to defensive woes, found success at shortstop in Detroit, was suspended 50 games due to his link to Biogenesis, signed a surprisingly large four-year deal with St. Louis and led the Cardinals in WARP last year while earning a few down-ballot MVP votes. Through it all he's exhibited prodigious thump for a shortstop, especially against lefties, but the most surprising development is his transformation into a plus defensive player. Shortstops' gloves are supposed to turn to vinegar, not wine, but Peralta has become more reliable in the field each year, making up for lackluster range with soft hands and good instincts. As long as he can stick on the left side of the infield, Peralta's bat will earn his pay.
2014		A PED suspension derailed what could have been a career year for Peralta, who made the All-Star team and nearly matched a career-best TAv. Instead, he got a long summer vacation. Back just in time for the playoffs, Peralta earned the forgiveness of teammates and fans with an .898 postseason OPS, and an anything-for-the-team willingness to move to left field. He signed with the Cardinals, who, being both sensible and in need of a shortstop, won't want to revisit the outfield experiment.
2013		After an excellent 2011 campaign, Peralta regressed to his 2009-10 levels. The doubles that had turned into home runs couldn’t handle success and went back to life as doubles. He also shifted a large chunk of his fly balls into groundballs, many of which were turned into outs, resulting in a career-low 127 hits. Despite the downturn, he is easily worth his $6 million option, especially in a paper-thin free-agent market at the position. The Tigers wasted no time bringing him back. He has averaged 48 extra-base hits the last four years, with no more than 49 and no fewer than 47, but the distribution between the doubles and home runs seems to bounce around. The Tigers would gladly trade some doubles on Tuesday for some home runs today.
2012		Last year in these pages we questioned Dombrowski’s decision to re-up the left side of the Tigers infield with multi-year deals. As right as we were about Brandon Inge, that’s how wrong we were about Peralta, who last year ranked among the top shortstops in the American League. Peralta made good on his promise of improved flexibility and conditioning to play above-average defense, offsetting his limited range with sure hands and an accurate arm, and hitting for both power and average. That last part won’t continue so long as he gets under nearly two-thirds of his balls in play; odds are that more of those fly balls will settle into outfielders’ mitts going forward. Even so, now that he has rediscovered his shortstop glove, he has a much lower offensive bar to clear, meaning he can survive a likely drop in OBP and still remain an asset.
2011		The Tigers traded for Peralta at midseason to help shore up the left side of their infield, and the former Indians third baseman impressed his new employers enough to wrangle a new two-year deal at shortstop. What made Peralta special earlier in his career, other than his unique taste in consonant placement, was an ability to provide punch at shortstop, but there’s little in his recent history to suggest that he remains either an offensive force or a shortstop. Sure, he launched a few more bombs last year, but Peralta’s single-minded quest to renew his slugger’s license caused his ground-ball rate to fall an astonishing 16 percent, further eroding an already sub-par batting average and OBP. While his bat plays better at shortstop, his glove certainly doesn’t—there’s a reason the Tribe exiled him to the hot corner—making this a regretful decision on several levels.
2010		Since 2005, the hot corner has been an offensive black hole for the Indians. A logical change was to have the emerging Asdrubal Cabrera play short and move the increasingly immobile Peralta to third. Unfortunately, Peralta’s OPS dropped over 100 points after the move, and it wasn't just a bout of bad luck—his BABIP stayed about the same. For the first time since his rookie season in 2003, he hit more ground balls than flies. When he did hit a fly ball, they only went out of the park 5.6 percent of the time, as compared to his 9.7 percent average over the previous two seasons. These two factors led to his home-run rate to be cut in half, which makes up for most of his significant drop in OPS. Peralta has never been the most consistent player, but given the gross similarities of his 2007-2008 seasons, any bounce-back seems likely to be similar in form—good, but just barely that.
2009		After two seasons of frustration, the power that Peralta displayed in 2006 returned, as he set a franchise record for extra-base hits by a shortstop (surpassing Hall of Famer Lou Boudreau's 65 from 1940). Peralta was the best offensive shortstop in the weak post-"trinity" American League field, and is signed for the next three seasons at just $15 million total. The bad news is that he's growing increasingly immobile at the position. He'll need a move to third at some point, and it's possible that the acquisition of Luis Valbuena from the Mariners in the Franklin Gutierrez trade will give the Indians the depth to try it now.
2008		After a great 2005 and an awful 2006, Peralta arrived at a happy medium last year. This version of Peralta is likely the real deal, as it was almost an exact match for his career numbers. He attributed his rebound last year to laser eye surgery, but it's too bad there's no medical procedure that will help his range at shortstop. The Indians insist that he's staying put, but it seems like a forgone conclusion that he'll eventually have to move to second or third, an impression only made stronger by the emergence of Asdrubal Cabrera. Still, as a middle infielder with patience and good power, Peralta's a valuable part of this team.
2007		While various defensive metrics suggest that Peralta was pretty good defensively, the Indians sure didn`t think so, with manager Eric Wedge being a particularly vocal critic. At the plate, PECOTA expects something in between last year`s low and the high of 2005, and more in keeping with his minor league track record, meaning he`ll once again be one of the top hitters at his position. The Indians know they can`t really deal him just one disappointing year after signing him to an arbitration-erasing extension through 2010, and with the defensive upgrades to his right and left, and the equally reasonable expectation that his bat will bounce back, sticking with him isn`t just the path of least resistance, it`s a good idea.
2006		If one discounts 2003, when Peralta was forced into the Indians` starting shortstop job well ahead of schedule due to an Omar Vizquel injury, one can see that his outstanding 2005 campaign simply continued the progress he has made at the plate since hitting Double-A in 2002. Handed the shortstop job in spring training, Peralta had nothing less than one of the 20 best seasons ever by a shortstop under the age of 24. In what should have been his rookie season, Peralta was a legitimate Gold Glove and MVP candidate who was overlooked for the former and shut out of the voting for the latter. He should be a cornerstone of this franchise for a long time.
2005		Peralta and Brandon Phillips, who may be 2006's double-play combination, have two things in common: they each bombed in their initial big league exposure in 2003, and their offensive games are way too reliant on batting average to be trusted. It was time for Cleveland to move on from Omar Vizquel, but unless Peralta's jump in BA comes to the majors and then sustains—and both those things almost never happen—he won't be an impact player. PECOTA doesn't penalize him for having an unnecessary consonant in his first name, but it should.
2004		Vizquel's injury forced Peralta to arrive in the majors a good year early, so he shouldn't be criticized for his struggles. He wasn't ready, but he showed that he can play a decent short nonetheless. Spending a good chunk of 2004 in Buffalo will put him in an interesting position: Will he get the job in 2005, once Vizquel's contract runs out? Or will he be trade bait? The Indians' system is rich in talent at short, but Peralta is clearly the pick of the litter, the puppy you keep for yourself while foisting all the others off on people who have something you want. He'll hit for power, and he can play the position. He won't be a star, but he will be a good answer for four or five years.

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