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Preseason Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2019 Projections)

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 75)

Rank	Score	Name	Year	DRC+	Trend
1	92	Victor Martinez	2018	93
2	86	Eddie Murray	1995	130
3	84	Hideki Matsui	2013	0	DNP
4	84	Rusty Staub	1983	105
5	83	Todd Helton	2013	105
6	82	B.J. Surhoff	2004	105
7	82	Al Oliver	1986	0	DNP
8	82	Pete Rose	1980	94
9	81	Scott Hatteberg	2009	0	DNP
10	81	Wally Joyner	2001	85
11	81	Bill Buckner	1989	77
12	81	Lou Piniella	1983	102
13	81	Jake Daubert	1923	98
14	80	J.T. Snow	2007	0	DNP
15	80	Harold Baines	1998	113
16	79	George Brett	1992	101
17	79	Bing Miller	1934	71
18	79	Dave Bergman	1992	85
19	78	Paul Konerko	2015	0	DNP
20	78	Ted Simmons	1989	0	DNP
21	78	Felipe Alou	1974	71
22	78	Tim Raines	1999	95
23	78	Don Baylor	1988	104
24	78	Mike Piazza	2008	0	DNP
25	77	Bob Watson	1985	0	DNP
26	77	Joe Kuhel	1945	120
27	77	Rico Carty	1979	98
28	77	Melvin Mora	2011	68
29	77	Joe Judge	1933	63
30	76	Sam Rice	1929	96
31	76	A.J. Pierzynski	2016	65
32	76	Johnny Damon	2013	0	DNP
33	76	Luis Gonzalez	2007	110
34	76	Chase Utley	2018	83
35	76	Moises Alou	2006	125
36	76	Jeff Conine	2005	100
37	76	Juan Beniquez	1989	0	DNP
38	75	Jim Eisenreich	1998	59
39	75	Adrian Beltre	2018	110
40	75	Dixie Walker	1950	0	DNP
41	75	Paul Molitor	1996	114
42	75	Hal McRae	1985	128
43	75	Edd Roush	1932	0	DNP
44	75	Ernie Whitt	1991	88
45	75	Brooks Robinson	1976	67
46	75	Bobby Bonilla	2002	0	DNP
47	74	Ken Griffey	1989	107
48	74	Cal Ripken Jr.	2000	95
49	74	Stan Musial	1960	124
50	74	Mickey Vernon	1957	91
51	74	Ron Fairly	1978	101
52	74	Tony Taylor	1975	97
53	74	Smoky Burgess	1966	97
54	74	Rod Carew	1985	102
55	74	Yogi Berra	1964	0	DNP
56	73	Sherm Lollar	1964	0	DNP
57	73	Carl Yastrzemski	1979	112
58	73	Miguel Cairo	2013	0	DNP
59	73	Mark Grace	2003	81
60	73	Garret Anderson	2011	0	DNP
61	73	Marco Scutaro	2015	0	DNP
62	73	Jayson Werth	2018	0	DNP
63	72	Graig Nettles	1984	118
64	72	Paul O'Neill	2002	0	DNP
65	72	Damion Easley	2009	0	DNP
66	72	Al Kaline	1974	112
67	72	Mike Redmond	2010	75
68	72	Earl Sheely	1932	0	DNP
69	72	Gary Carter	1993	0	DNP
70	72	Mark Sweeney	2009	0	DNP
71	72	Billy Williams	1977	0	DNP
72	72	Matt Stairs	2007	127
73	72	Gregg Zaun	2010	95
74	72	Eric Young	2006	76
75	71	Lou Whitaker	1996	0	DNP
76	71	Gene Woodling	1962	112
77	71	Brian Jordan	2006	74
78	71	Kenny Lofton	2006	95
79	71	Debs Garms	1946	0	DNP
80	71	Ernie Lombardi	1947	84
81	71	Ruben Sierra	2005	74
82	71	Steve Finley	2004	106
83	71	Paul Waner	1942	111
84	71	Andre Dawson	1994	92
85	71	Johnny Grubb	1988	0	DNP
86	71	Carlos Beltran	2016	120
87	71	Ernie Banks	1970	100
88	71	Bobby Abreu	2013	0	DNP
89	71	Red Schoendienst	1962	95
90	71	Ken Williams	1929	99
91	71	Jim Dwyer	1989	117
92	71	Enos Slaughter	1955	119
93	71	Brian Giles	2010	0	DNP
94	70	Barry Larkin	2003	93
95	70	Walker Cooper	1954	117
96	70	Dave Philley	1959	98
97	70	Frankie Frisch	1937	81
98	70	Mark DeRosa	2014	0	DNP
99	70	Brian Downing	1990	126
100	70	Ken Griffey	2009	104

BP Annual Player Comments

Year		Comment
2019		Due to publishing agreements, the 2019 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2019 book (available in hardcopy, and soon e-book and Kindle).
2018		In The Incredibles, Mr. Incredible was the greatest superhero in the world. He was beloved and adored, and perhaps most importantly, he was, well, important. Then, he got older. He got a little less athletic and a little less imposing. His decline was a stark reminder that primes dissipate, skills erode and things end. We might not be ready to live in a world where Albert Pujols is less incredible, yet here we are. He didn’t strike fear into the hearts of opposing pitchers last season, drawing walks at the lowest rate of his career. Nagging foot injuries sapped even more speed from his arsenal, turning lasers off the wall into long singles. His -1.8 WARP is the second-worst season by a Hall of Famer since 1950, and the fact that he needed no qualifiers in this sentence makes it all the more uncomfortable. Mr. Incredible reinvented himself and once again found success and adulation late in his career. Pujols still has opportunities to reinvent himself, but he's running out of ways to be incredible.
2017		Halfway through his 10-year mega-contract Pujols has settled into the sort of consistency that has long been a hallmark of his career, but at a far less Olympian level than in his Cardinals heyday. You can expect him to be healthy enough to play 150 games, but he’ll always be either willing himself through foot pain or recovering from the surgeries needed to relieve it. He’ll post the counting stats (say, 30/100) of a legitimate run producer, but without the walks and doubles of a truly premium bat. He’ll be a good hitter, but not a great one; a solid fielder, but an increasingly infrequent one; a contender to lead the league in both home runs and double-play groundouts. If you ignore the money, you can be happy with that type of production from your DH. If you can’t ignore the money, remember that the league is currently swimming in lucre and signing Pujols to a five-year, $140 million contract starting today would be a very bad idea, but not necessarily a franchise crippler.
2016		Pujols possesses some of the key ingredients for a low BABIP, from his pedestrian foot speed to his glaring flyball tendencies, but that fails to explain a .217 mark that qualified as the lowest BABIP in baseball by 18 points. The only way past the defense was to hit it over the wall, which he did with the greatest frequency we've seen since his Cardinals days. The fact that Pujols crushes high fastballs is on page one of the scouting handbook, and he'll pull the trigger regardless of count, a combination that led to 28 percent of the pitches against him missing low and away. His devolution to such a simplified approach is a disappointing development from a player who, in his prime, epitomized the value of pitch recognition and reaction time.
2015		Back on July 20th, Pujols responded to a preemptive Fernando Rodney arrow celebration by lacing a game-tying double down the first-base line, then unleashing an imaginary arrow of his own at the guy Angels fans remember as “Fraudney.” That moment of swagger defined the Angels' second-half surge, and earned Albert the loving acceptance that had mostly eluded him during his first two-and-a-half seasons in Anaheim. This sort of symbolism is important when earning $23 million for 2.9 WARP worth of work. He entered this offseason vowing to strengthen his injury-beleaguered lower half in order to reassert his opposite-field pop. That would do more to restore his former self than anything else: In 2010, his last MVP-caliber season, he slugged .909 on pitches in the outer third of the strike zone; in 2014 it was just .512, up from .473 the previous year, but still far short of his glory days, when he didn't need to be snarky to get fans on his side.
2014		Think back to the 2009 season, just after Pujols won his third MVP award. He was 29 years old and the reigning NL leader in home runs, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. He was two years from free agency and a living legend in St. Louis. Think back to that time and imagine being told that Pujols would not be considered the best player in baseball once the 2014 season began. How about that Pujols would lose the crown to his 21-year-old teammate? Ridiculous, right? If that weren't enough, Pujols' last three seasons have been the worst three of his career, and he missed the final two months of the year due to injury. None of this sounds like a positive development for the Angels, who have Pujols signed through the 2021 season, but there is good news to be found. The aging slugger had been hobbled with plantar fasciitis for almost a decade before he tore his plantar fascia last season. While that sounds bad, the torn fascia has the same effect as the operation that fixes the plantar fasciitis. As a result, Pujols' days of nagging foot pain should be over. Obviously, that doesn't mean Pujols is going to return to his Best Player In The World status, yet he should regain some mobility, overall speed (remember, he used to be a very good baserunner) and the lower-body leverage that was missing from his swing last year. Here's one last beacon of hope: Even at his worst, Pujols has still been a pretty good hitter. He might be overpaid going forward, but that doesn't mean he's a bad player.
2013		PECOTA already wasn�t a fan of the 10-year, $240 million contract the Angels gave Pujols. Over the life of the deal, it forecast 29 WARP for the first baseman; assuming $5 million per win and a generous 7 percent inflation, Pujols would be �worth� about $170 million. Having produced 3.7 WARP in 2012, he�s now behind on two counts: nearly two and a half wins below expectations through year one, and now a lousier bet to uphold the other nine years of PECOTA�s forecast (which, it should be noted, still expects him to lead the league in WARP in 2013). Pujols�s career-low TAv marked a fourth consecutive year of decline. His career-low unintentional-walk rate is half what it was three years ago. Even his defense, while still good, is declining�from 31 runs above average in 2007 to seven runs in 2012. He�s still one of the three best first basemen in the game, so it�s not time to panic yet. But it will be, sooner than the Angels hoped.
2012		Even after Pujols shut down all contract negotiations in spring training to avoid distractions, the specter of free agency loomed over him all season. A slow start didn�t help matters as he tweaked a hamstring and hit just .211 on balls in play in April. A near-firestorm erupted in May when Pujols hugged it out with then-Cubs GM Jim Hendry at Wrigley, and Pujols was hitting a shockingly human .257/.326/.395 as late as May 29. Just as the Machine was finding his groove in June, he suffered a broken left wrist in a collision at first base. But after the All-Star break, he was his old dominant self, putting up a more typically Pujolsian .319/.375/.584 slash line and slugging near .700 in the postseason. That said, Pujols produced career lows in batting average, walk rate, and on-base and slugging percentage. He also hit more balls on the ground than ever before and led baseball by hitting into 29 double plays. Will any of those negatives matter in the short term for the Angels, who signed him for 10 years? If PECOTA is any indication, no, but the longer out we forecast, the greater the number of monsters here be. He is only 300 home runs short of the Angels' franchise record, an unlikely but reachable mark.
2011		If you want some perspective on how great Pujols has been and continues to be, take a gander at his .312/.414/.596 stat line, and understand that last year he posted the lowest batting average of his career, the lowest on-base percentage since his sophomore season of 2002, and slugged below .600 for just the third time. To balance out that unexpected suckitude, he did lead the NL in home runs, runs scored, and RBIs, won his second Gold Glove, his sixth Silver Slugger, and finish in the top two in MVP voting for the seventh time. Pujols is now on the wrong side of 30, so this year�s slight course correction downward may be the start of a slow, inevitable decline, but whatever his next contract pays him, it�s hard to imagine that he won�t be worth it.
2010		Even with 44 intentional walks taking the bat out of his hands, Pujols nevertheless managed to finish third in baseball in OBI�Others Batted In�with 88, behind Ryan Howard (96) and Prince Fielder (95), even though he had slightly fewer opportunities. Howard got ordered aboard eight times, Fielder 21. Someday, somebody's going to point out that Pujols has yet to lead the league in RBI, but in the same way that a league-leading tally requires teammates aboard, it also requires an even distribution of opportunities, and no one's arguing that Pujols doesn't cash his in. He also hasn't hit 50 homers; Hank Aaron never did either, and it isn't hurting Pujols' case for being the best player in the game today. Consider him the symbol of old standards and new coming together, recognize he's slugged .600 or better in seven of nine seasons, take your seat, and enjoy every single swing you get to see, every at-bat�they'll still be selling hot dogs afterward, and you don't want to miss what comes next.
2009		It was perhaps Pujols� finest season. He set career highs in OBP and OPS, and was over two wins of WARP more valuable than any other position player despite a June stint on the DL with a calf injury. The two-time MVP is simply the best player in baseball, and the finest first-base defender in the game. The tear in the ulnar collateral ligament of Pujols� right elbow, first sustained while playing the outfield in 2003, grew severe enough during the season to necessitate serious discussion of a Tommy John procedure at year�s end. Pujols instead opted for an ulnar nerve transposition, typically a surgery performed on pitchers (Chris Carpenter had it done last winter as well), and not one that will keep Pujols from being ready for spring training. The need for an elbow reconstruction is potentially still present, but the troublesome joint has not kept Pujols from producing some of the best numbers in baseball history to this point.
2008		Speaking of tarnished awards, Pujols was jobbed out of last year's NL MVP honors. He led the NL in WARP, thanks in part to his Gold Glove-caliber defense at first base. When September dawned, the Cardinals were stronger contenders than the Rockies and right there with the Phillies. Pujols hit .386/.486/.625 that month, as clutch a performance as you'll find. So why wasn't he a candidate in the voters' eyes? Because his teammates played terribly, while those of Matt Holliday and Jimmy Rollins played well. When the Cards were losing 12 of 13, Pujols was trying to carry them, batting .372/.453/.628. He was every bit the September player the other two were, but he didn't have the Phillies' bullpen or the Rockies' defense on his side. That, and not the performance of the players involved, is why Pujols was an afterthought and why the current thinking of the voting pool on the major awards is so flawed as to completely invalidate them.
2007		Very few players burst on the majors as fully-formed Hall of Famers. As this book was being written, Cal Ripken and Tony Gwynn were elected to the Hall of Fame. While it`s possible there were some observers who felt certain by, say, 1983 or 1984 that they were looking at Hall of Famers in the making, there were undoubtedly just as many who saw Gwynn as a singles hitter with a bad body and Ripken as a guy who was too big for shortstop and would almost certainly be kicked over to third base as soon as someone better like Juan Bell came along. With Pujols it was clear almost right away what kind of player he was, which is why so many people expressed disbelief: They were seeing a player who, if he never grew, if he never peaked, if he just stayed right where he was, was going to be an annual MVP candidate. That`s almost exactly what happened, except that Pujols has been improving slightly each season. He had his best year yet in 2006, posting a career high WARP (12.9) despite missing 19 games with an oblique strain and other minor scrapes. That total is boosted by his stellar defense at first, an underrated aspect of his skill set. Perhaps the only question left to answer is whether or not he can take one more step forward and have a couple of otherworldly, inner-circle Hall of Fame seasons like those enjoyed by Lou Gehrig and Jimmie Foxx. If it`s going to happen, it will be in the next few years.
2006		Absurdly great, and signed to a very favorable deal for the Cardinals. On the statistical anomaly front, check out Pujols` ABs for the last five years: 590, 590, 591, 592, 591. Only on a Tony LaRussa team could things be so rigidly organized. In terms of performance, only Barry Bonds compares. Pujols` line of .330/.430/.609 for the season is truly remarkable because he was suffering through plantar fasciitis for a good chunk of the season, and hitting a baseball without being able to plant your foot properly is exceptionally difficult. Even if there`s truth to the old rumor that he may be two years older than his listed age, Pujols is still capable of putting up Bonds-like numbers. He`s Mozart with a bat, a very smart baserunner, a plus defender at first base, and well-liked and respected in the community. For the city and the franchise, he`s the perfect superstar.
2005		I suppose writing the Barry Bonds comment would be more taxing in terms of the use of superlatives, but what do you say about this guy? In terms of career numbers compiled before age 25, Pujols ranks eighth in home runs, ninth in doubles and sixth in extra-base hits. Additionally, among those who logged at least 2,000 plate appearances before age 25, Pujols places third in SLG and ninth in OBP. In other words, stay tuned: he's a luminary in the making.
2004		He's no Barry Bonds, but no one else is Albert Pujols. Look for other players who've put together three initial seasons like Pujols, and you find only pantheon-dwellers: DiMaggio, Williams, Musial. And then the comparisons wither. It's still possible that he's older than advertised, but the signal-to-noise ratio on that front is dropping. He does it all: Power, average, walks. This is one hell of a hitter. Go see him play.
2003		If there�s something unfair, it�s that Pujols was labeled a defensive liability at third. He wasn�t Terry Pendleton (or Scott Rolen for that matter), but he was effective enough. The point isn�t particularly relevant now, of course. Assuming anyone still believes that Pujols is 23 and not around 27, you should have seen an attractive if mature-looking Mrs. Pujols in last year�s Sports Illustrated swimsuit edition. Whatever his actual age, Pujols will be an asset with the Cardinals for the next four years, whether he divulges his age to the organization and signs a multiyear deal or not. He should achieve that projection handily.
2002		He's older than advertised, by at least three years according to some estimates. It was apparently a not-so-open secret in his college program, but the party line is that he �graduated early� from high school in the Dominican Republic. From a practical standpoint, who really cares? His age is most germane to issues such as his likely career totals, not whether he can help the Cardinals. Pujols can mash the ball and will continue to do so into the foreseeable future. If he plays third base, he'll be the best third baseman in the National League in 2002.
2001		Albert Pujols is a very promising third-base prospect. It's probably early to call him grade-A, but he has one great year under his belt, a .324/.389/.585 performance at Peoria followed by a brief stint at Potomac in which he wasn't overmatched. He finished the season with three games in Memphis and will likely start the 2001 season at Double-A Arkansas. Pujols is not going to be a fast guy; he's already big at 205 pounds and has the frame of a power hitter. His defense is good enough that he can probably avoid the dreaded corner migration from third base to first base. This is someone to watch; he could be starting at a Cardinal corner sooner than anyone realizes.

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