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BP Annual Player Comments

Year		Comment
2017		Some believe that a hefty contract can earn a bad player extra chances, playing time, etc. If that were the case for those of us at Baseball Prospectus, Carl Crawford would receive a full comment.
2016		The Dodgers paid Crawford just north of $21 million to actively hurt their team last season, as he finally dipped into negative-WARP territory. We're so used to Crawford being a massive disappointment that it's easy to lose sight of just how disastrous his contract is, but the shell of what was once among the game's most exciting players has received nearly $96 million to produce 5.8 WARP since 2011. Last season, Crawford's strikeout rate reached an all-time high, his defensive metrics registered at an all-time low and he hit the DL for the fifth straight year. He's got two years and $49.5 million left on his deal, but if he keeps decaying faster than Hydrogen-7 he might not get much playing time even against right-handers.
2015		Carl Crawford WARP, 2010: 5.8. Carl Crawford WARP, 2011-14: 6.3. Maybe the devil magic actually resides in St. Petersburg? Crawford's last two seasons with the Dodgers are about as good as he's going to be now that he's easing toward his mid-30s, and it's not so much that he's bad as that he's due $67 million over the next three years to be solid, decent, above average. He's also missed a month each of the past two years with leg injuries, which is alarming for a player reliant on speed for both defensive and offensive value, and which also highlights the need for the Dodgers to have a good extra outfielder at the ready. If there's anything the Dodgers have in spades, though, it's good extra outfielders.
2014		Crawford possesses a multifaceted skill set, but make no mistake—his 30s have turned him into a gunslinger without a gun. Leaving the Tropicana turf was expected to save his legs, but the player who averaged 50 stolen bases and more than 12 triples per full season with the Rays has vanished. After producing a .905 OPS out of the leadoff spot in April, his hamstrings flared up and sent him to the disabled list. The Dodgers would say he earned his 2013 paycheck with a four-homer playoff run, but there's little chance that a 32-year-old with problematic platoon splits and declining speed will justify a $20 million annual price tag for the next four seasons.
2013		Coming off his nightmare first season in Boston, Crawford underwent surgery to repair cartilage in his left wrist in January. Initially, the Red Sox explained he had begun experiencing soreness during his offseason hitting workouts, but by Opening Day, it emerged that he'd dealt with wrist pain for years and had received painkilling injections to manage the problem in 2011. Just as he was nearing game-readiness in mid-April, he sprained his left UCL, and didn't make his season debut until July 16. When it became apparent his elbow was a problem and the Sox were going nowhere, he shut it down and opted for Tommy John surgery in late August, and two days later, the Sox miraculously unloaded him—and every last dollar remaining on his seven-year, $142 million contract—on the Dodgers as part of the Nick Punto blockbuster. The change of scenery out of Boston's fishbowl should help, and there's a chance he could be ready for Opening Day, but the difference between the guy at his peak who put up a stellar walk year and the guy who will debut in Dodger blue may be nontrivial.
2012		We predicted Crawford to lose some hits and walks from the move into Boston's stronger lineup and away from turf, but 2011 was disastrous. Between a .155/.204/.227 April and a month of games missed due to a hamstring injury, Crawford's line never recovered. He looked uncomfortable at the plate, and his swing was at its most ugly when he needed to protect the plate with two strikes. The result? The same number of whiffs as in 2010 in 119 fewer chances. Crawford isn't just in Boston for his bat, though, as he is a superior defender and baserunner, too. He also at least started to recover when he returned from his leg injury (.272/.303/.462 in last 209 PA). Crawford used to claim his legs would be stronger if he got off turf, but PECOTA sees those wheels fading.
2011		It was a bittersweet season for Crawford, who turned in his finest campaign for the Rays in his walk year, thus pricing himself even further beyond their reach. Crawford set career highs in True Average, Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP), home runs, and slugging percentage, and his blazing speed was as evident as ever, as he led the league in triples, ranked third in steals, and fourth in Baserunning Runs (BRR). After a half-hearted game of footsie with the Angels, he signed a seven-year, $142-million deal with the Red Sox in early December. Whatever he loses in turf hits—he hit .305/.345/.460 at the Trop, .289/.330/.430 on the road—he should get back from Fenway Park, whose irregular outfield fences might assist him with the occasional inside-the-park home run. The only negative, if you could call it that, is how the lack of room to run in left field may serve to marginalize his ability to cover ground.
2010		Crawford rebounded from an injury-riddled 2008 to put together the best season of his career according to WARP. Not only did his BABIP shoot up from an atypically low .297 to .342, but improved plate discipline helped him set career highs in walks and OBP. He did so in stolen bases and caught stealing as well, and although he came out only slightly ahead on that matter (1.11 EqSBR), he still ranked 10th in the league in EqBRR overall. The Rays picked up Crawford's $10 million option for 2010 amid reports that the move upset the outfielder, who allegedly had a handshake agreement that management would renegotiate a long-term deal instead. Andrew Friedman says that the team still intends to work out a multi-year deal, but the situation bears watching, particularly with Desmond Jennings having reached Triple-A.
2009		Formerly one of the most consistent performers in the game, Crawford's sudden downturn was one of the few low points in the Rays' season. He was suspended for his part in a fight with the Red Sox, suffered a hamstring strain, and had surgery to repair a tendon in his hand. Observers have been expecting a breakout performance from Crawford for years, but they may have to accept the fact that it may never come. Crawford is good, not great, and he needs to hit .300 to make up for his hacking style and average power. He can beat you in a number of ways, but it can cost a lot of outs.
2008		Crawford just gets a little bit better every year. Last year his power, walk rate, strikeout rate, and success rate on the bases all took slight downward turns, but yet another increase in batting average-Crawford has upped his average in every one of his major league seasons-combined with a league-wide decrease in offense to give him career highs in our adjusted total-offense metrics EqA and MLVr. His excitement-to-production ratio is high, meaning he's a little bit overrated, but he's still well above average, relatively young, and has a good shot at ending up as good as everyone thinks he is.
2007		Crawford is one of the most exciting players in the league. He declared he wanted to be the best fantasy player ever, and delivered for both ballclub and fantheads alike. He was the team VORP leader (41.1, sixth among major league left fielders, second to Manny Ramirez among the American League variety) and finally got his on-base percentage above league-average with a career-best walk rate, which was the last part of his game that needed improvement. Rumors regularly circulate that Crawford will be traded, but the Rays would be unwise to do so without a stunning offer; he`s signed through 2010 at salaries that have become almost cruelly low given the current environment, and, still just 25, he has many good years ahead of him. Three of the four PECOTA comps, above, make sense, but the program must have been drinking on the job when it associated Crawford with the stout pinch-hitter Gates Brown.
2006		Crawford has gotten a little bit better every year. Last year he set career highs in slugging percentage, batting average, and home runs while tying his career high in OBP. The only thing he didn`t improve was his walk rate, which actually dropped from one every 19.2 plate appearances in 2004 to one every 25.4. He`s miscast as a leadoff man; his OBP hasn`t reached league average in any of his four seasons. That doesn`t diminish his value: he`s among the fastest players in the game, which allows him to play great defense and leg out extra-base hits, the latter giving him a frisson of power not provided by his bat. Just 24, he should keep doing this for years.
2005		The fastest player in the American League...as long as Tampa management keeps Joey Gathright in Durham. Carl Crawford is not a superb leadoff man; because he doesn't draw many walks, he doesn't get to first base often enough, and that, not speed, is the first prerequisite of being a great leadoff man. The odds are he never will be one: He has a translated rate of 30 walks per 650 plate appearances through his first 1,500 career plate appearances. Of the 218 players who drew walks at a (translated) rate of 30 per 650 plate appearances, or worse, only 10% ever had a single season in the rest of their career that reached as high as 60. He is still a terrific player to have, as his bat continues to improve, his defense remains top-notch, and his legs will continue to bedevil opposing pitchers, catchers and outfielders. The only negative is that, thanks to his rapid promotion to the majors, he's going to get very expensive sooner than he should have.
2004		Another example of a guy who could well be a very good ballplayer down the road, at which time he'll either cost a fortune or be with another team. Crawford's extremely fast, is a hacker of the highest order, and is young enough so that he could end up being a truly outstanding player. If he improves his plate discipline 15%, he'll increase his average and power enough to be an outfielder of acceptable production. Any way LaMar can arrange for him to spend a month in a locked facility with Rickey Henderson? Sure, he might end up speaking of himself in the third person. but it'd be worth it.
2003		Crawford’s got youth on his side, and he’s been pretty impressive thus far into his career. However, he’s really only starting in the majors at 21 because the Rays are desperately lacking in outfield talent, sold about 10% of their position players to Japan, and need an inkling of excitement to get the fans to the park. The Rays will pay for their impatience in US legal tender; Crawford’s not going to be a plus in his first year or two in the majors, but all that service time will make him an expensive 24-year-old.
2002		Don't make the mistake of dismissing this guy as all hype and no performance. For a teenager in Double-A, he did just fine, without any help from his park or league. Yes, it would be nice if he learned to draw more walks, but he has plenty of time to work on that. It will be a surprise if he isn’t playing regularly sometime in 2003. Expect him to eventually be Kenny Lofton.
2001		Another of the Chuck LaMar All-Stars, Carl Crawford is a young, athletic outfielder and a very raw baseball player. He could have played Division I football or basketball but chose baseball after being the D-Rays' #2 pick in 1999. The improvement he showed in 2000, particularly in power and plate discipline, was impressive for an 18-year-old in the Sally League. He's got a good chance to be a tools pick who becomes a baseball player. Even if we're right about Crawford, it doesn't change the fact that the Devil Rays are following a misguided draft strategy. Tools guys are easy to like, and if you draft enough of them, one or two eventually have nice careers and make you look good. Overall, though, such a strategy leads to a lot of high-profile flops and a lack of talent coming through your system.

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