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September 16, 2016 Fantasy Starting Pitcher PlannerWeek 24
Welcome to the starting pitcher planner, where every Friday we’ll be taking a look at the pitchers slated for two turns in the upcoming week. The hope is that the planner can help guide lineup and FAAB decisions that need to be made over the weekend. Of course, my information isn’t perfect and I don’t have a crystal ball. Rain, injuries, and teams reshuffling between when we write and Monday’s first pitch will definitely happen. If new information comes to light after we publish, we’ll try to tackle it in the comments. Feel free to beat us to it if you have any info, and we’ll be glad to offer our opinion there if you want it. Let’s get some ground rules out the way before getting started. The pitchers will be split by league and then by category. Here are some general thoughts about the categories: Auto-Starts: You paid a big price for these guys, either with an early draft pick, high dollar auction bid, or significant haul of prospects or MLB talent. These are the top 20 or so starters in baseball, so you’re starting them anywhere, anytime. Guys can pitch their way on to or fall off of this list as the season evolves. There won’t be many notes associated with this group, unless a player has just moved up or is in imminent danger of moving down. Starts: These are the pitchers I’m recommending you give the ball to this week. Some will be obvious, though not quite auto-start excellent. Others will be lesser talents who find themselves with a pair of favorable outings that you can take advantage of. Considers: These guys will be on the fence and your league settings and position in the standings will play a big role in your decision. A pitcher in this category can be an SP2 or SP3 with a tough week of matchups. Conversely, he could be a team’s number five who happens to be lined up against a couple basement dwellers. Your particular league context carries the day here; if you are in a 10-team mixed league you probably don’t need to take the risk, but a 10-team AL-only leaguer might see it as a nice opportunity to log some quality innings from a freely available resource. Sits: These are the guys I’m staying away from this week. They will range in talent from solid to poor. With mixed leagues smaller than 16 teams my default position for all two-start pitchers who rank outside of the top 60 or so is to sit them unless the matchups dictate otherwise. Additionally, mid-rotation starters who face a couple tough draws will find themselves in this category more often than not. NATIONAL LEAGUE Five NL teams will roll out a six-man rotation this week. The Cubs, Brewers, and Pirates will deploy their six starters across six games, giving them no two-start starters. The Rockies and the Padres have seven games this week to distribute among their six starters, giving them a single two-start starter for the week. AUTO-START
In stark contrast to last week, it’s a banner week for big-name starters in the NL. Clayton Kershaw, Rich Hill, and Jose Fernandez are always auto-starts as long as they’re actually able to make their starts. Noah Syndergaard gets the added bonus of facing two of the worst offenses in baseball. Madison Bumgarner and Johnny Cueto get finish the week with favorable matchups in pitcher-friendly San Diego against the Padres. START
The depth in the Auto-Start category this week leaves the Start category a little thinner than usual. Julio Teheran has both of his starts on the road in pitcher-friendly parks against injury-ravaged lineups. Like his teammate Noah Syndergaard, Robert Gsellman has two starts that are about as favorable as can be. CONSIDER
Aaron Blair would normally appear in the Sit category, but both of his matchups this week are in pitcher-friendly parks against injury-weakened lineups. Dan Straily’s 3.81 ERA and 1.18 WHIP would usually earn him a spot in the Start category, but he has two rough starts this week, one against the beastly Cubs and one against the homer-happy Brewers in their homer-friendly park. Jake Esch is pretty close to the border between the Consider category and the Sit category, but his start against the Braves pushes him into the Consider category. Carlos Martinez usually appears in the Start category and can even reach the Auto-Start category with a good matchup or two, but he has two of the worst matchups possible this week, one in Colorado and one on the north side of Chicago. A.J. Cole would have ended up in the Sit category with more neutral matchups, but his two favorable starts on the road in pitcher-friendly parks against the Marlins and the Pirates pushed him up into the Consider category. SIT
Rubby De La Rosa hasn’t been terrible this year and his start on the road against the Padres is appealing, but his road start against the Orioles is scary. Tyler Anderson hasn’t been bad this year, either, but he draws the Cardinals at Coors Field followed by a road start against the surging Dodgers. Since his promotion, Jake Thompson hasn’t been hasn’t been striking anyone out (6.0 K/9, 1.6 HR/9) but he has been putting them on base (4.4 BB/9, 1.48 WHIP). Paul Clemens has struggled to the tune of a 4.94 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP in the majors this year, but he did throw five shutout innings in his last start against the Giants, for what it’s worth. AMERICAN LEAGUE The AL has three teams using six-man rotations this week. The Tigers, Athletics, and Rays each have six games this week for their six starters, which means that they don’t have any starters making two starts this week. AUTO-START
His matchup against the Orioles is a little scary, but Rick Porcello’s numbers this season make him an Auto-Start, and his road start in pitcher-friendly Tampa balances out some of the risk posed by the start in Baltimore. START
Brad Peacock usually occupies the Consider category while Joe Musgrove can appear in the Start category or the Consider category depending on his matchups. This week, they both have great matchups, one on the road in pitcher-friendly Oakland and one against the Angels. Yordano Ventura just keeps on doing his thing, with his ERA, WHIP, and strikeout totals never quite matching his fastball velocity. Martin Perez usually sits on the cusp between the Consider category and the Sit category, so an appearance in the Start category is a rarity. Like Peacock and Musgrove, though, he has starts against the light-hitting Angels and A’s, with the start against the A’s held in pitcher-friendly Oakland. CONSIDER
Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman could both appear in the Start category most weeks, but their matchups against the high-scoring Red Sox and the Diamondbacks demote them to the Consider category. Eduardo Rodriguez has a tough matchup against the Orioles in Baltimore followed by an attractive start against the Rays in Tampa. Carlos Rodon has been good recently, although he still allows too many hits and issues to many walks to hold down a regular spot in the Start category. Josh Tomlin doesn’t walk many batters, but he allows too many hits and doesn’t strike out enough batters. After two good seasons in Pittsburgh and Kansas City, Edinson Volquez has reverted to his pre-Ray Searage ways, allowing lots of baserunners and lots of runs. Michael Pineda has a good start on the road against the Rays followed by a bad one on the road in hitter-friendly Toronto. Taijuan Walker has an unfavorable start against the Blue Jays followed by an appealing start against the Twins in Minnesota. Marco Estrada had a 2.93 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP before the All Start break but has a 5.47 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP in the second half. SIT
Jhoulys Chacin and Daniel Wright are proof of how thin the Angels rotation options are. Tyler Duffey has a 6.39 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP this season—enough said.
Scooter Hotz is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @wavingatyou
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I read that Cole might lose two start status due to Ross returning this weekend....thoughts?
It's possible. There hasn't been anything definitive news one way or the other so far. Most sites are still listing Cole as a two-start starter next week and aren't listing Ross as a projected starter for any games next week, so I'd say there's maybe a 75 percent chance Cole makes two starts next week. It's a fluid situation, though, so keep your eyes peeled.
Thank you...2 weeks left and every IP, K and Win counts in tight categories. I've got Tyler Skaggs and possibly David Phelps to drop, and among the best choices remaining for 2 starts are AJ Cole, Josh Tomlin and Brad Peacock...I guess I should get Peacock despite facing ANA in HOU and Alex Bregman possibly out for the year.