Transaction Prospectus (08/10)
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August 10, 2009 A Talent DroughtMissing Men Up the Middle?
Sure, Ryan Braun is cocky, but he tends to back it up when he steps to the plate. One aspect of the game that Braun is not cocky about-and with good reason-is his defense. A shortstop at the University of Miami, Braun was initially moved to third base as a pro, but that lasted all of 112 games in the big leagues before he went to the defensive wasteland of left field. The frustrating thing for many is that on a pure athleticism and tools level, Braun has everything required to be a solid if not an above-average player at the hot corner, but his defense has always, even in the outfield, been best described as indifferent. He's certainly not the only prospect to befall such a fate. In the ten-year period from 1997-2006, 20 players were drafted in the first and supplemental first round as third basemen, but of those twenty, less than half (nine, to be exact) stayed at the position as professionals. That said, the position has created a surprising number of great players, as of the nine, four (Troy Glaus, Evan Longoria, David Wright, and Ryan Zimmerman) have become stars, and two (Alex Gordon and Ian Stewart) still have a chance to join that group. Among those who had to move, the list includes Pat Burrell, Mark Teixeira, and Billy Bulter in addition to Braun. The lesson to take from that fact is that if you can mash, they'll find a position for you, but for some inside the game who are responsible for finding new talent, there is a bigger issue here: some believe that true left-side infielders are more hard to find than ever. The problem is even more profound at shortstop; fewer seem to be available with each passing year, as baseball has seen a steady decline in merely the number of shortstops selected in the draft: Shortstops Taken In Picks Years 1-100 1-50 1-10 1965-69 16.2 9.2 1.8 1970-79 14.0 8.2 1.8 1980-89 13.6 6.7 2.1 1990-99 11.8 6.0 1.2 2000-09 10.6 5.3 1.1 Beyond the numbers of shortstops themselves is the fact that the position itself is often a misnomer. The best athlete at most high schools is usually the shortstop, but that rarely means it's a legitimate reflection of those players' eventual position; it's easy to forget that even Gorman Thomas was drafted as a shortstop. In draft history, 581 shortstops have been drafted among the first 100 selections; of those, 116 had major league careers spanning 500 or more games, but just 46 spent the majority of their career actually at shortstop. Put more simply, only about two out of every 25 players drafted as shortstops in the first 100 picks had anything resembling a career there. The reasons for the decline are numerous. The loss of athletes to sports like basketball, football, and soccer continues to be an issue, and there's also now a mindset for many teams that tells them that up-the-middle players are better sourced from the international market, specifically Latin America. However, one scouting director noted that there's more of a lack of focus on the position itself when in comes to player development for young players in North America. "Part of the problem is that the kinds of players that play shortstop in college and high school aren't the kind of players that we see as playing there in the big leagues," one scouting director explained. "Often it's not the best athlete as much as it's the steadiest fielder playing there; we see that all the time, even in college, so often what teams are doing doesn't match what we're looking for." Even more jarring is just the lack of work done on fielding itself. "It's an issue across baseball," the scout explained. "You go to a high school baseball game, and guys can't even play catch. I know it sounds stupid, but when I was a kid, we played catch every day in our front yards, and now kids go to the cage and then go home and turn on their PlayStation. Defense is the last thing kids worry about these days, and it's very evident." Five Prospects Who Might Have To Move (Or Have Already) As has been noteed, Braun certainly isn't the only one out there who can't play the position he was drafted at. Here are five highly regarded prospects with the bat who leave plenty of questions on the defensive side of things:
Thanks to Dan Malkiel for his research assitance.
A version of this story originally appeared on ESPN Insider
Kevin Goldstein is an author of Baseball Prospectus.
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I had always thought Teixera moved to first base because the Rangers had him and Blalock, and just thought Blalock was the better glove, and not because they thought Teixera couldn't handle third in the big leagues. He's a superb defensive firstbaseman.
I seem to remember him being a solid defender in college, but this report indicates that even when he played in the AFL there were concerns over his 3B defense.
http://www.minorleaguewatch.com/AZFall/fin-02alw.html
But the article also says that he played well defensively that fall. I think he could have been at least acceptable at third if they'd stuck with him there. I think the same goes for Pujols, actually.
Pujols' elbow wouldn't have held up at third.
You're right, of course, but I think he would have been a decent third baseman until the elbow gave out.
You could make a similar case for Burrell. He was initially moved to 1B because Gold Glover Scott Rolen was at 3B. He then moved to LF after the Curt Schilling trade to make room for Travis Lee at 1B.
I'm not sure either story has much bearing, since that section of the article is just pointing out top hitters who changed positions. There's a possible implication that these players were moved for issues similar to Braun's, but including defensive studs like David Wright, Ryan Zimmerman and Mark Teixeira leads me to believe that he's not trying to say that these guys moved because they are indifferent to defense. He's just pointing out that they did indeed move.
You could only really make a similar case for Burrell if he had turned out to be any good defensively at the other positions. Rolen gave them two reasons to move Burrell to a less demanding position instead of just one.