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March 5, 2001 Lost in AmericaMinor MovesFollowing the 2000 season, the minor leagues underwent dozens of changes. Organizations changed their affiliations within leagues, moved their affiliates from one league to another, and jumped and bumped teams between levels. Along with the reconfigurations, there will be several new parks throughout the minor leagues. What follows below is a delineation of the changes, along with an attempt to anticipate what effects those changes might have. Most of the changes occurred at the lower levels. At any level, the talent matters more than the park or league. That's especially true for the low minors, where the change is so rapid, the talent so immature, and the organizational goals so much more focused on development than statistical results. This article doesn't spend much space addressing changes at the rookie or short-season levels. But all the changes are worth noting, both to help track player movement and to better analyze drastic changes in player performance. The park factors given here are taken from Baseball Prospectus 2001. Note that an average park would be rated 1000. Some leagues remained unchanged. For the leagues that were affected, we use the following abbreviations: Car = Carolina League Cal = California League Eas = Eastern League FSL = Florida State League Mid = Midwest League Nwn = Northwest League PCL = Pacific Coast League Pio = Pioneer League NYP = New York-Penn League SAL = South Atlantic League Sou = Southern League Tex = Texas LeagueAnaheim Angels 2001 2000 2000 2001 2001 Level League Affiliate League Affiliate ------------------------------------------------------------------- Triple-A PCL Edmonton PCL Salt Lake City Double-A Eas Erie Texas Arkansas High-A Cal Lake Elsinore Cal Rancho Cucamonga Short-A Nwn Boise N/A N/A Rookie Pio Butte Ari Butte Rookie N/A N/A Pio ProvoAn inconsequential reorganization, and an aggressive one at that. At Triple-A, the move from Edmonton (park factor 1030) to Salt Lake (1103) won't help the pitching. Salt Lake is one of the best hitters' environments in one of the best hitters' leagues in the minors. Last year at Edmonton, the team's pitchers ranked 11th in walks allowed and last in strikeouts. The situation is the same at Double-A: of 12 teams in the Eastern League, the Angels' Double-A affiliate ranked tenth in walks allowed and 11th in strikeouts. The move to the Texas League, another haven for hitters, won't help. Even at High-A, the Angels' prospects finished near the bottom of their league in walks allowed and strikeouts. Strikeouts and walks are the categories least effected by park factors and defense. As noted in Baseball Prospectus 2001, the Angels' minor-league affiliates had the worst composite winning percentage of any organization. Until the Angels can teach their kids to do a better job of getting batters out on their own, the misery will continue. When the Angels moved into Salt Lake, the affiliate changed its name from Buzz to Stingers. But parts is parts. No matter what they call themselves, no matter where they play, The Angels' prospects are just so much pressed chicken. Arizona Diamondbacks 2001 2000 2000 2001 2001 Level League Affiliate League Affiliate ------------------------------------------------------------------- High-A Cal High Desert Cal Lancaster Short-A N/A N/A Nwn Yakima Rookie Ari Tucson N/A N/AThey're out of the batting cage at High Desert, which at 1139 had the highest park factor in the minor leagues, but Lancaster, with its park factor of 1103, won't be much better for the Diamondbacks' young pitchers. Like the Angels' pitchers, the young D'backs have trouble getting batters out on their own. We can ignore the league-worst ERA posted at High Desert last year, but the team ranked next to last in both walks allowed and strikeouts. The usual route for developing Snakes takes them from South Bend to Lancaster. At South Bend, the pitchers ranked fifth-worst in walks allowed and third-worst in strikeouts, so even if there's an influx of new talent, don't expect the move from High Desert to Lancaster to help the pitching stats much. The hitters will still be in a good environment, though. Playing at Lancaster last year, Mariners' hitters led the league in batting average, runs, and home runs. Chicago White Sox 2001 2000 2000 2001 2001 Level League Affiliate League Affiliate ------------------------------------------------------------------- Middle-A Mid Burlington SAL Kannapolis/PiedmontPiedmont was very good to the Phillies' prospects last year. Playing in a neutral park, the Boll Weevils' pitchers led the Sally League in ERA and the batters finished second in batting average and runs scored. With the White Sox in town, the affiliate changed its name to the Intimidators. The 2000 affiliate--the Burlington Bees--played in a hitters' park and posted an ERA near the bottom of the league, gave up the most walks in the Midwest League, and finished in last place. The good news is that they finished fifth in strikeouts. At the Appalachian League stop en route to Piedmont (Bristol), a hitters' league in a hitters' park, the young Sox pitchers put up a respectable ERA, had the second-most strikeouts, and gave up the second-fewest walks. Some of the Sox's heralded talent will spend the year at Piedmont, so expect the Sox to do better as Intimidators than they did as Bees. Chicago Cubs 2001 2000 2000 2001 2001 Level League Affiliate League Affiliate ------------------------------------------------------------------- Short-A Nwn Eugene Nwn BoiseFrom a neutral park (1001) to slightly less neutral park (1020). That's about as flavorful as the parent organization's off-season changes. When you're 12 and your girlfriend offers her chewed gum to you, you take it. When you're 22, it's just gross. That's the Cubs: chewed gum. Cincinnati Reds 2001 2000 2000 2001 2001 Level League Affiliate League Affiliate ------------------------------------------------------------------- High-A Mid Clinton Cal MudvilleFollowing a mandate from Major League Baseball, the Reds shipped one of their Midwest League teams to the California League. The transfer from Middle-A to High-A means the competition will be stiffer. The Cal is a hitters' league, but if you compare Clinton's 2000 final stats to Mudville's 2001 stats-in-progress, expect the change to hurt the hitters and help the pitchers. Mudville's park factor of 855 is the lowest in the minor leagues. If the Reds suddenly seem to have developed a few aces, look twice. Colorado Rockies 2001 2000 2000 2001 2001 Level League Affiliate League Affiliate ------------------------------------------------------------------- Short-A Nwn Portland Nwn Tri-City Rookie Ari Tucson Pio CasperThe only item of interest is that these Rockies' affiliates will play in new parks. Last year at Portland, the park favored pitchers. Tri-City Stadium (unrated) is in Pesco, Wash. The new park in Casper is Wyoming's only professional ballpark. It's called Mike Lansing Field, which on the face of it should mean it isn't a hitters' park. Detroit Tigers 2001 2000 2000 2001 2001 Level League Affiliate League Affiliate ------------------------------------------------------------------- Double-A Sou Jacksonville Eas EriePlaying at Jacksonville in 2000, the Tigers' Double-A affiliate enjoyed a pitchers' park (979) and still posted the Southern League's worst ERA. Not coincidentally, they also finished next to last in strikeouts. The batters had trouble too, finishing next to last in batting average and in the second-tier in runs and homers. Erie (1084) was just awful to the Angels' squad last year, with the pitchers and hitters finishing near the bottom in the meaningful categories. While it's true that the Angels are a bad barometer, don't expect the change of league or affiliation to help the Tigers. Houston Astros 2001 2000 2000 2001 2001 Level League Affiliate League Affiliate ------------------------------------------------------------------- Middle-A FSL Kissimme SAL Lexington Short-A NYP Auburn NYP PittsfieldThe Kissimmee affiliate was dissolved after last season. The new team and park in Lexington have gotten a lot of attention, most notably in a feature article in the February 19 Baseball America. This is Lexington's first team since 1954. At Short-A, the change is from a hitters' park (1038) to a pitchers' park (946). Kansas City Royals 2001 2000 2000 2001 2001 Level League Affiliate League Affiliate ------------------------------------------------------------------- Middle-A SAL Charleston, W.Va. Mid BurlingtonThe hitters at Charleston had the league's lowest batting average, runs, and homers. The park factor was only 980, so it wasn't as if they were struggling in Mudville. The talent is just poor. The change to Burlington (1057) might help a very little. The pitchers at Charleston last year had an alarming inability to strike anyone out. Only a couple of Charleston pitchers rated write-ups in Baseball Prospectus 2001, and they've moved on. The team finished 53-80. But some would say it's just A ball, and indicative of nothing. Los Angeles Dodgers 2001 2000 2000 2001 2001 Level League Affiliate League Affiliate ------------------------------------------------------------------- Triple-A PCL Albuquerque PCL Las Vegas Double-A Tex San Antonio Sou Jacksonville Middle-A Cal San Bernardino SAL Wilmington Short-A Nwn Yakima N/A N/A Rookie N/A N/A GCL Vero BeachLike their colleagues at Disney, the Fox Corporation shuffled their baseball division's affiliates following last season. The change from Albuquerque (park factor 1075) to Las Vegas (1052) is unimportant. It just makes Mike Judd's flight shorter. At Double-A, the change is from an extreme hitters' league to a neutral league, and from an extreme pitchers' park (903) to a relatively neutral park (979). Mostly, this just means you'll have less normalizing to do. The ease of analysis means that taking the Dodgers' Double-A prospects stats at face value won't be an act of recklessness. After the move from San Bernardino (976) to the new park in Wilmington, N.C., the Dodgers will have only one High-A affiliate, Vero Beach in the Florida State League. Milwaukee Brewers 2001 2000 2000 2001 2001 Level League Affiliate League Affiliate ------------------------------------------------------------------- High-A Cal Mudville Cal High Desert Rookie Pio Helena Ari ProvoThis is the minors' most eye-catching off-season move. Mudville (855) is the most extreme pitchers' park in the minor leagues, while High Desert (1139) is the most extreme hitters' park. It's something like going from Comerica Park to Coors Field. At Mudville, the Brewers had the California League's second-best ERA, while at High Desert, the Diamondbacks affiliate had the league's worst. The spread between the Brewers' pitching talent and that of the D'backs' isn't much. This will be simple: the Brewers' hitters will appear to have improved, the pitchers will appear to have gotten worse, and no one should pay it any attention. Instead, just wait for next year's Davenport Translations to put it all in context. The Arizona League affiliate Provo will play in Larry H. Miller Field at Miller Park. On information and belief, I note that the park was not named after the comedian. Minnesota Twins 2001 2000 2000 2001 2001 Level League Affiliate League Affiliate ------------------------------------------------------------------- Triple-A PCL Salt Lake City PCL EdmontonEdmonton (1030) is only slightly less cozy than Salt Lake (1103). Hitters will still do fine there, pitchers slightly better than they did in Utah. The focus should be on who's there. While the White Sox like to promote from Double-A to the majors, the Twins like to expose their players to the Pacific Coast League before calling them up. The constitution of the roster will be more interesting than the change of affiliation. Of course, it's still an extreme league, so don't forget to account for the effects before concluding that, say, Michael Cuddyer has gotten the hang of it, or that Adam Johnson can't handle the jump from Ft. Myers. Montreal Expos 2001 2000 2000 2001 2001 Level League Affiliate League Affiliate ------------------------------------------------------------------- Middle-A SAL Cape Fear Mid ClintonA lateral move. Similar league, similar park. For those of you who have seen Waiting for Guffman, do you remember the closing lines from "Nothing Ever Happens on Mars?" Boring, boring, boring, boring. The Expos are Mars. New York Mets 2001 2000 2000 2001 2001 Level League Affiliate League Affiliate ------------------------------------------------------------------- Short-A NYP Pittsfield NYP BrooklynThe Brooklyn Mets. That's the point of interest here. Culturally interesting but a non-starter for statheads. It's an unrated ballpark. Philadelphia Phillies 2001 2000 2000 2001 2001 Level League Affiliate League Affiliate ------------------------------------------------------------------- Middle-A SAL Piedmont SAL LakewoodHell of a year at Piedmont. The move to Lakewood means a new park, unrated. The Sally League is now in Jersey. St. Louis Cardinals 2001 2000 2000 2001 2001 Level League Affiliate League Affiliate ------------------------------------------------------------------- Double-A Tex Arkansas Eas New HavenThe move is to a similar park (from a park factor of 981 to 970) but a much better environment for pitchers. The Arkansas staff got lit up last year, even with the benefit of a pitchers' park. Finishing last in strikeouts, they just put too many balls in play. New Haven, on the other hand, was wonderful for the Mariners' young pitchers, who led the Eastern League in ERA. But they also allowed the fewest walks and had the most strikeouts. Unlike the Cardinals' pitchers, they kept the ball out of play. The New Haven Ravens won their league's championship last year. Don't expect a repeat. San Diego Padres 2001 2000 2000 2001 2001 Level League Affiliate League Affiliate ------------------------------------------------------------------- Triple-A PCL Las Vegas PCL Portland High-A Cal Rancho Cucamonga Cal Lake Elsinore Short-A N/A N/A Nwn Eugene Rookie Ari Peoria N/A N/AIn the Northwest League, the park at Portland had a rating of 948, but the park has undergone major reconstruction to accommodate its ascendency to Triple-A. The construction won't be complete until May, so the club will play its initial home games in Pesco, Wash., home of the Rockies' relocated Northwest League affiliate. Las Vegas was the way station for last year's surprises, Brian Tollberg and Will Cunnane, who both pitched well in an unfriendly environment. This year, expect Brian Lawrence and Wascar Serrano to "surprise." Jacob Peavy, Dennis Tankersley and Gerik Baxter, who all got good write-ups in Baseball Prospectus 2001, will pass through Lake Elsinore before surprising everyone next year. Lake Elsinore is, like Rancho Cucamonga, a pitchers' park, just a little more so, and maybe just enough to off-set the league's tendency to favor hitters. San Francisco Giants 2001 2000 2000 2001 2001 Level League Affiliate League Affiliate ------------------------------------------------------------------- Middle-A Cal Bakersfield SAL HagerstownBlue Jays' hitters were terrible at Hagerstown, even though it's a hitters' park (1072). The Giants' hitters were second in runs and homers at Bakersfield, which was only a mild hitters' park (1012). Expect the Hagerstown fans to have more fun with the Giants around. Note of no consequence: Hagerstown has never won a pennant. Seattle Mariners 2001 2000 2000 2001 2001 Level League Affiliate League Affiliate ------------------------------------------------------------------- Double-A Eas New Haven Tex San Antonio High-A Cal Lancaster Cal San BernardinoThe Mariners do a great job of sheltering their developing arms. Except for the short-season squad at Everett, every Mariners' affiliate plays in a pitchers' park: Tacoma (916), San Antonio (903), San Bernardino (976) and Wisconsin (982). So even when their prospects pitch in hitters' leagues like the PCL and Texas League, the Mariners minimize the risk of shellshock. At New Haven (970) the Ms led the league in strikeout-to-walk ratio. The move to San Antonio, an extreme pitchers' park, will only help. The move from Lancaster (1103) to San Bernardino will help, too, since the Ms led that league in K/BB ratio, too, even though they were in a hostile environment, And as they did at Double-A, the Ms have moved their California League team from a hitters' park to a pitchers' park. The point is that it's not just the parks. Unlike the Angels, the Ms have gotten their pitchers to control the game by keeping the ball out of play. And while the Angels have moved into parks hostile to pitching, the Ms have given cover to their pitchers at every level. That's the upside. The downside is that we might never know if Greg Wooten is really any good. Tampa Bay Devil Rays 2001 2000 2000 2001 2001 Level League Affiliate League Affiliate ------------------------------------------------------------------- High-A FSL St. Petersburg Cal BakersfieldThe move is to a slightly better hitters' park in a better hitters' league, not that the D-Rays have any hitters who will take advantage of it. Look twice if their toolsy hitters appear to have improved. Toronto Blue Jays 2001 2000 2000 2001 2001 Level League Affiliate League Affiliate ------------------------------------------------------------------- Middle-A SAL Hagerstown SAL Charleston, W.Va. Short-A NYP Queens NYP AuburnThis is a big change. They've gone from the second-best hitters' park in the Sally League to a pitchers' park. And they couldn't hit in the hitters' park. Baseball Prospectus 2001 is high on Toronto's organizational depth, but there wasn't anything happening at Hagerstown last year. No Hagerstown batter rated a write-up in the book. The team finished near the bottom in the meaningful batting categories. The park change won't make it better. No Changes: Atlanta Braves, Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox, Cleveland Indians, Florida Marlins, New York Yankees, Oakland A's, Pittsburgh Pirates, Texas Rangers Keith Scherer can be reached at KJSbaseball@aol.com.
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