Checking the Numbers: ... (05/22)
109 comments have been left for this article. BP Comment Quick Links
| |
|
|
May 22, 2009 Prospectus TodayNL All-Starsby Joe Sheehan Today, I'll run through my NL All-Star ballot, again keeping consistent with the idea that I'm trying to pick the very best player at each position, and specifically not giving much weight to the last six weeks relative to the body of work and established level of play. It's pretty clear that many, many people want to see the All-Star Game reward a big six, eight, or 10 weeks, and while it's a popular view, it's a tough one to defend, not least because it would mean that July, August, and September never matter in choosing All-Star teams. First Base: Albert Pujols, Cardinals. One method of selecting All-Stars that I will give credence to is selecting favorites, whether that's the guys on your team, your favorite players irrespective of laundry, or the guys you want to see play in the All-Star Game for personal reasons. Those kinds of ballots are the only ones for which a vote other than for Albert Pujols as the NL's first baseman is valid. Just because Adrian Gonzalez or someone like that-an All-Star-caliber player-has a higher EqA or VORP or something for six weeks doesn't change Pujols' status as the game's best baseball player. Don't get me started on Ryan Howard. Second Base: Chase Utley, Phillies. This is arguably an easier choice than voting for the best player in baseball. Pujols has more worthy competition in most years; Utley has Orlando Hudson and Brandon Phillips, good players who don't reach his level. Shortstop: Hanley Ramirez, Marlins. He's continued to separate himself from Jose Reyes, a fine player in his own right. Ramirez's power makes up for Reyes' superior defense, and will likely continue to do so through the two players' primes. Third Base: David Wright, Mets. This has been one of the toughest calls on the ballot for a few seasons now, as Chipper Jones' second, late peak coincides with the meat of Wright's career. I don't think you can go wrong with either player, and to some extent, this pick is me throwing up my hands and flipping a coin. (This is a case where current-season performance served as a tiebreaker.) It will be interesting to see if Ryan Zimmerman makes this more complicated in future seasons. Catcher: Brian McCann, Braves. There was a debate between him and Russell Martin for a while there. It's not a debate any longer, and even had Martin sustained his 2008 line, there wouldn't be. McCann increasingly reminds me, as much as someone born in 1971 can say this, of Yogi Berra. I wouldn't mind seeing Yadier Molina make the team; he's good enough defensively that he doesn't have to take a back seat to anyone in the league other than McCann. Outfield: Carlos Beltran, Mets; Manny Ramirez, Dodgers; Adam Dunn, Nationals. It looks like a protest vote, or that I'm making a statement, or what have you. It's not. Even with missing eight weeks due to a suspension for violating the drug policy-a presumed use of steroids-Ramirez keeps this spot for me. I do not see any argument that steroids are the reason for his performance, this year or previously; I also don't see where a suspension makes you ineligible for an All-Star berth. Finally, the NL outfield pool is not what it was a few years back. As in the AL, there's a drop-off after the top two guys to a group of comparably valued players with limited track records or a flaw of some kind. I couldn't take two from the pool ahead of Ramirez. He's just that much better than the field, especially if you want to just look at NL performance. Looking back, I think Ryan Braun might have been a better choice than Dunn was, though Dunn isn't an unreasonable pick. The two are similar players, Braun growing into a better version of what Dunn has been for the last eight years, with fewer walks, more contact, and a bit better outside the batter's box. Dunn over Braun is the one pick on the ballot that I wouldn't mind having back, and what bugs me is that I missed Braun last year as well. I think I'm mentally overcorrecting for his move from third base to left field, downgrading the value of his performance too much. Ryan Ludwick, Carlos Lee, and Alfonso Soriano all caught my eye here as well.
Joe Sheehan is an author of Baseball Prospectus.
BP Comment Quick Links audhumla (969) Joe, not to be difficult, because opinions are opinions and everyone's entitled to their own. Cool deal, fair enough. faithdies (46632) How did you NOT put Raul Ibanez on this list? Really? Brian Kopec (12249) I'm guessing you don't know how Joe picks his all star teams. Mountainhawk (37208) Can you explain Adam Dunn then? Honestly, I'm not seeing it. I see a guy that hits a lot of HR and nothing else offensively, but is so slow getting to balls in the outfield that he must cost the Reds a couple of bases per series defensively. Aaron/YYZ (34268) Drew Miller (22526) If you knew nothing about a player, except this line: Richard Bergstrom (36532) Not necessarily if those are his career numbers. agentsteel53 (16127) and why not? .380 is above average, and 40HR implies a power that makes up for not having a spectacular .430-.440 OBA ... I'd take him for sure - and I'd know that there aren't 1-2 people better at his position, so I'd vote him an all star. Yes, even at 1B or DH. Richard Bergstrom (36532) Except there are at least 3 people better than Dunn... Manny, Beltran and Braun. That's why they get voted for. Also, keep in mind that All-Star votes are taken with only half the season played, so voters don't get the benefit of seeing such nice round juicy home run totals as 40 home runs.. nor will they know a player's OBP off the top of their head. Let's say Dunn has 15 home runs and Braun has 15 home runs. Braun's team is in first place, riding a recent winning streak, so they are often highlighted in the news. Dunn's on the Nationals... I'd bet dollars to donuts that, assuming their numbers look equal from a superficial aspect (batting average, home runs, etc), the average fan would vote for Braun. Drew Miller (22526) Which is where I fundamentally differ on ASG voting. I would select the player having the best half-season. Mike Juntunen (30924) Its not a question of play, its a question of start: is it really a bad thing to assert the best 18 players in baseball should start the ASG, and people having amazing seasons/playing at elite levels can come in and play the rest of the game? krissbeth (40802) Actually, voting for the guys with talent who have the best first half makes for a better All Star Game. They start the game. The guys with the better body of work finish it. It makes for a more balanced game if the last innings aren't exclusively the slots of the Ryan Ludwicks of the world. Drew Miller (22526) Good point. My main sense here is that we should have a more formal guideline as to what sort of process we should be using to consider players for the ASG. We can and should feel free to deviate from such a guideline, but it would be nice if the guideline did exist. Richard Bergstrom (36532) Other readers have rated this comment below the viewing threshold. Click here to view anyway. We have a guideline. It's called batting average, home runs, rbis and stolen bases. Joe D. (3692) He didn't deserve it. jramirez (11690) Ryan Howard 2009: 1.072 OPS vs. RHP, .578 OPS vs. LHP Mountainhawk (37208) Kindly point out for me all the .770+ OPS guys currently sitting on the bench somewhere that the Phillies could pick up to platoon with Howard. Dan W. (42065) Seems to me like this isn't really the point. The point is (1) this DQs Howard from all-star consideration under Joe's metrics, which isn't unreasonable; and/or (2) what you need is someone who can put up better than a 770 OPS against LHP, not against everyone, which would be the point of a platoon. Whether that's worth devoting a roster spot to is colorably debatable. Mountainhawk (37208) OK, that's fair. I'm still guessing that once you came up with a list of available people that are 770+ against LHP, you'll still be left with a pretty short list. Drew Miller (22526) I don't know. Without digging for it (I'm doing that right now), I'd guess that one could find a player who could a) play first base, and b) put up a .770 OPS against lefties, rather easily. It strikes me as something that specific replacement-level players could do. I bet you could find a lot of right-handed, AAAA hitters who could put up that OPS against lefties (and also be lousy against righties). Mountainhawk (37208) Thanks. Mike Juntunen (30924) By the time Ryan Howard is off contract, anything that encourages him to sign elsewhere for more money is good news for the Phillies, who would do well to avoid the trap of paying a player who was good, but overrated, during his peak for his decline years (note Howard's age already and how quickly big, fat, slow sluggers of his type crater out). harderj (32137) Replacement level (or slightly greater) lefty mashing 1b, limited at bats caveats apply, but they exist: Mike V. (596) How about Mark DeRosa? Career 307/372/481 against lefties. He even has a 317/349/610 this year even though he sucks. Plus he's on the block, and wouldn't be a backup-1B load on the bench. TGisriel (2498) For example: Ty Wigginton career v LHP 286/360/505 865 OPS kcboomer (4676) Most of the selection are very defensible, other than Ramirez. Even if you wish to turn a blind eye to PEDs and naively take Manny's excuse at face value, you still have to keep him off this year's team. The guy is going to miss 1/3rd of the season, got caught red-handed cheating (whether you accept it or not) and you are going to reward him with an all-star berth?? BelongstotheReds (14205) I have to agree here, Joe. I've listened to and mostly supported your refusal to rush to judgment on PED's, but if the All-Star game is a celebration of the game itself as well as its best players, it seems absurd to honor someone who almost certainly and knowingly cheated. The issue as to whether the PED's have helped his performance is of very little consequence in this context. The drug(s) were very clearly and publicly banned, and Manny knew beyond a reasonable doubt that he was taking them. Missing an All-Star game is a far cry from an outsized penalty given the crime. soBC (2918) Based on the arguments I've read, shouldn't Barry Bonds be on this All Star team? TGisriel (2498) There is, of course, no "right way" to pick an All Star team. Fans love to debate it anyway. sunpar (38553) You're missing the point. You're supposed to pick the best baseball players alive. No one is better at 1B than Albert Pujols, so even if Adrian Gonzalez were to outhit him for a couple months we could safely still say "If I had to win ONE game tomorrow, I'd pick Pujols." Bodhizefa (36436) How do you compare Ryan Braun to Adam Dunn? How?! In the history of comps, that seems like one of the strangest I've read in my time following BP. It makes absolutely no sense, and you practically had to qualify it in every stat category. Weird, Joe. Just weird. antoine6 (23870) Well, it's not like Ibanez is Marco Scutaro or someone random just having an incredible 200 at-bat streak. He's been a quite solid .290/.355/.480 type hitter in a pitcher's ballpark for the last few years. Now he's leading the NL in SLG and OPS. I don't think it's insane that he would merit consideration. Drew Miller (22526) It's worth pointing out that the pitcher's park benefit of Safeco is generally to CF and LF only, as pointed out in this year's book. The expectation is that Ibanez would only be slightly helped by PNC. Dan W. (42065) It's also worth pointing out, at some level, that Ibanez is only disqualified from consideration through a combination of the "career all-star" and the "advanced statistical metrics" criteria. The guy has averaged 26 HR and 112 RBI the last 3 years, and while this is far from a defense of RBI as a stat, it's obviously one used by the MSM and, thus, by most all-star voters, whether in direct analysis of a player or just in terms of coming to a vague idea of who is/isn't having a good season. So Joe's criteria may be right for his purposes (maybe mine, too), but there are two fronts on which Ibanez has a strong all-star case, if not a compelling one. danteswitness (39502) Joe, be careful if you ever make a visit to Great American Ballpark this summer; Marty Brennaman will hunt you down for daring to include Adam Dunn in an All-Star conversation. Doesn't heart and a love for the game count for anything anymore? Zabadoey (30772) Where's the love for Bengie Molina??? harderj (32137) Bill N (47044) Awesome McKickAss .286 8 hr 30 rbi Mike Juntunen (30924) I just want to say I feel very much like Joe's criteria for picking ASG starters is totally relevant and guys like Ibanez, Hudson and Zimmerman are entirely entitled to be on the All-Star team .. as reserves. That's why the managers pick the reserves, after all, and I think its entirely justified: starting the ASG should be a sign that you are either the best or most widely loved player at your position (eg, the Jeters, Ripkens and Pujolses of the world)and guys having great/elite partial seasons or career peaks can come in in the 3rd inning. antoine6 (23870) Also, I find it hard to believe that it's even much of a competition between Hanley Ramirez and Reyes. Reyes has always gotten credit for being young, but he's 26 now, in the prime of his career, and still is only getting on base at a .355 clip essentially (which Jimmy Rollins always gets knocked for). He's a good defensive SS, but not great, and he continually makes boneheaded plays and errors. He gives you decent power, but nothing special. Matt Kory (17492) antoine6 (23870) And Reyes is .337. Just sayin. Aaron/YYZ (34268) I'd like to dispute the "barely mentioned" part about recent MVP winner Jimmy Rollins. I think people have noticed him. Darin (32348) "Ryan Ludwick, Carlos Lee, and Alfonso Soriano all caught my eye here as well." mattgioia (34248) are you serious? zulu (45261) given that Pence is: jkaplow21 (27759) Can't reply because IE 8 doesn't like the page format, but what about the other 1st basemen not named Pujols? antoine6 (23870) Considering that Howard's defense has been much improved so far this year, I think it's clear that platoonig Howard would be a serious mistake. Especially if you're not going to argue to platoon all the rest of those guys. Mountainhawk (37208) Granted, he hasn't made an error yet (even completing 5 straight throws to 2nd, something he had 5 errors on 20 tries last year), but let's see where he ends up this year defensively before turning that into a positive. [Albert has 5 errors so far this year, just for completeness.] tooci4 (23694) jkaplow21, I think I love you. bflaff (26787) In addition to those splits you mention, Howard has hit 46 HRs against lefties from '06-'08. No other 1B really comes close. Fielder has 31 and Pujols has 30. The notion that Howard loses a lot of value against lefties is undeniable, but the overall argument for a platoon arrangement here is underwhelming. fielding99 (20787) Ramirez gets caught cheating, is forcing his team to play Juan Pierre for 50 games, and you think he should be rewarded with an all-star berth? Richard Bergstrom (36532) Ramirez got caught cheating during spring training... we don't know if it affected his past numbers and because he has been suspended, it hasn't affected his current numbers. The All-Star game does have a habit, too, of electing players who have missed the first half of the season because of injury. Also consider that, if Ramirez using PEDs disqualifies him in the mind of the voter, then Alex Rodriguez should also be disqualified. Joe doesn't use PEDs in his criteria though, just a simple "who is the best player" from his point of view. deberly (6192) Yeah, but my problem with is Joe's comment "I do not see any argument that steroids are the reason for his performance, this year or previously." Joe D. (3692) Fair enough. Mike W (830) Gotta agree with Bodhizefa. How on earth do you compare Braun to Dunn? Braun hits for a much higher average, walks a lot less, plays much better defense, has much more speed, and hits with the other hand. Other than that, though . . . ZachAttack123 (51579) Very solid list. Richard Bergstrom (36532) If Joe evaluates players based on their body of work and not the current season's performance, and if he feels PEDs do not disqualify Alex Rodriguez for his vote, then similarly, he has to vote for Manny Ramirez. His OPS over the last three years, even in his "declining" phase, is still better than any other outfielder in the NL. I may not agree with Joe's criteria, but I can applaud him for remaining consistent with that criteria. kriscolic (9307) 1) David Wright has been essentially as good as or better than Chipper Jones every year since 2005 according to WAR and WARP. I think Joe is overstating how close the two are. antoine6 (23870) Werth deserves to be in consideration for a reserve berth, no question. He's quietly one of the better players in the league, a 20-20 plus guy with good OBP and great defense in RF. In the AL, that gets called Nick Markakis. Drew Miller (22526) The only difference is that Werth ain't durable, which means he almost never puts up the requisite counting stats. So I wouldn't put Werth in Markakis' territory--as is often pointed out here, health is a skill, and a vital one at that. TGisriel (2498) Nick Markakis career 302/377/482 sunpar (38553) RE #1: I don't know what you're talking about. Wright in WARP over the past 3 years= 20.8; Chipper=20.9 soBC (2918) Based on the arguments I've read, shouldn't Barry Bonds be on this All Star team? chartjes (897) Why people get twisted into knots over a popularity contest is beyond me. The ASG is an exhibition game that has gotten blown out of proportion due to a trend by ASG managers to mismanage their rosters. Which is of course nothing new in baseball. smitty (25922) Yes. Every year too, you get all the snub articles after the selections are made. I really dislike this part of the ASG thing. No one gets "snubbed." Guys get selected for various reasons and for good reasons almost always. Other guys don't. That's the way things like this work and always will. battlekow (31681) Is this article a retrospective or something? I don't understand the "looking back" part; if you wanted to switch Dunn out for Braun, why didn't you just do it? smitty (25922) Platoon Ryan Howard talk is pretty silly unless you also advocate platooning Adrian Gonzales who has a .738 OPS vs. lefties. Bill N (47044) I'm thinking about UZR here, because I admittedly don't know how Dewan measures it, but... is Howard helped at all by All-World 2B Chase Utley gobbling up grounders next to him in these stats? smitty (25922) Utley is way down statistically so far this season. Dewan's system uses video review and it's supposed to be more sophisticated this season. smitty (25922) Oh crud. I meant to add to the second paragraph that while it wouldn't be bad to get a Willingham type to occasionally sit Howard vs. a lefty starter, platooning him makes little sense. Mike V. (596) Other readers have rated this comment below the viewing threshold. Click here to view anyway. I think if the opponent brings in a lefty, the Phillies should pinch-hit for Howard, and then put him back in the next time through the lineup like in volleyball. Are they not allowed to do that? smitty (25922) Actually, when teams bring in those often not-that-great lefty pitcher in to pitch to the lefty heavy Phillies, it's not a bad thing sometimes. Utley hits lefties pretty well. Werth crushes them. The Philies, as a team, have done very well vs. lefties in recent years. So if Howard's presence in the lineup encourages teams to use more kinda-lousy lefties vs, them that's a good thing. Richard Bergstrom (36532) My main question, in all this, is why vote in May? Are you not attending any games in June? I recognize that you feel this season is too short for the statistics to factor much into your voting, and I can respect that. But by waiting until June, you do get a better gauge on who would be healthy for the All-Star game. wdreusike (47583) Charlie Manuel better pick a ground ball pitcher to start if Ramirez and Dunn (or Braun) are starting out there. Watching Dunn play RF in the WBC was bad enough and I feel bad for Nationals fans having to endure 15 starts there so far this year. Beltran is pretty great, but he's not THAT great and I would say Soriano might be a better choice over one of Ramirez, Dunn or Braun for that reason. Christopher Miller (88) Other readers have rated this comment below the viewing threshold. Click here to view anyway. my guess is that Joe's blind spot about Dunn has a signficant correlation to his longstanding tendency to over-pick the Reds over the past few years. Braun is an altogether better ballplayer--a better hitter (though some more patience would help) and a better fielder. Braun is also a better athelete and better on the basepaths. Top it off with intangibles, and the complete package is an order of magnitude better. Do I like Adam Dunn? absolutely, but if he's hitting 3rd for my team, I'm in trouble. Richard Bergstrom (36532) I think Joe picked Adam Dunn because, over the last few years, his last name has been consistently shorter than Ryan Braun. havens (25663) For someone who agrees with Sheehan on a vast majority of topics, some of these All-Star picks are just mind boggling. Choices just to make a point? BeanoCook (30241) Ryan Braun is the 2nd best hitter in the NL, behind Pujols. It is funny that the stats crowd and Joe Sheehan will take 6 years to see this. hessshaun (41493) I really cannot even begin to understand how some people do not have any idea as to the effects of steroids on the human body. I really do not get it at all. Especially people who make a living off analyzing numbers. By no means am I saying all people, but some just choose to ignore it all together. oystertoadfish (47264) Will the Nationals get two all-stars this year, or will Zimmerman or Dunn be snubbed because of how bad the pitchers are? Alternately, for minimum logic the NL could use the time-honored heuristic 'if a team is really bad, take a random reliever and stuff him in the back of the pen' and honor hanrahan. djackson (30868) Do people really not understand the difference between "body of work" voting, which is pretty stupid, and "best estimate of current true talent" voting, which is what Joe is clearly doing? Randy Johnson has far and away the best "body of work" of any pitcher in baseball today, and no one is advocating his making the all-star game. Not a subscriber? Sign up today!
|
Not going to bother with Howard, because we all just laugh at your belief he's a platoon player. Especially when you later put Dunn on your ballot, who is worse than Howard in most ways imaginable.
Very disappointing you wasted a vote on a cheater though. You may not like rewarding current season performance, but there is a guy hitting .349/.410/.724 in the NL OF that is way more deserving than someone that was probably cheating for years, defrauding the fans.
I recommend you read chapter 9.1 of Baseball Between the Numbers before you so quickly suggest that Manny's drug(s) of choice (or those of anyone else) produce fraudulent numbers.
I never said his numbers were fraudulent. In fact, his numbers are real, facts are facts. HRs don't vanish because you cheated.
He's still a cheater. He still defrauded the fans. If a player is going to take fans money to play a game that every fan would love to be playing instead of their 9-5 job, they have a duty to play the game honestly and to the best of their abilities.
Manny, lived up to neither of those. We always knew he was a slacker ... we know he's a dishonest cheater now too.
Actually, all Manny has an obligation to do for his salary is:
A: entertain us
B: do his best to compete
I gotta say, I think its safe to say that Manny is not only an excellent baseball player, but has succeeded beyond all expectations at A as well as B.
There is no reasonable justification for expecting any baseball player to adhere to the personal moral standards of any fan, journalist, etc. While what Manny did may (did) violate his contract employment terms, those isses are between him and his employer and his agent: If Frank McCourt wants to persue recompense from Manny for his violations, or John Henry or any other person actually paying his salary, they are quite free to do so (and clearly not doing so).
You do not pay Manny Ramirez's salary: you pay to watch the Los Angeles Dodgers/Boston Red Sox/insert your team playing one of those two teams.
You can have that opinion, I have mine.
My opinion is that Ramirez is a cheater, for who knows how long, and by cheating has deprived fans everywhere of having an honest game of baseball, like all the other cheaters have. This wasn't a case of "oops, I accidently took a prescription that made me test positive." This was a masking agent that is used to prevent you from failing a steroids test.
Totally true.
However, you have absolutely no idea (nor I, nor anyone else, not even Manny Ramirez or the players on the other team, more than likely)of any of the following:
1: When did and didn't he take things?
2: Did what he took actually impact his performance outside the vagaries of random chance?
3: What, and when, were his opponents taking?
4: What about the Pitcher? (And, pitching for the Yankees .. Roger Clemens/Andy Pettite!)
5: What about the outfielder climbing the wall to bring back the HR (Gary Matthews Jr)
With all of that lack of information and obfucation, all we can really say is 'we know manny did it too'. We don't know how it impacted games, or whether it deprived people of these experiences, etc .. Do you think Red Sox fans suddenly feel jilted about 2004 and 2007?
Do you think Yankees fans have any right to feel that way (pointing at Clemens and Pettite again, and Giambi and A-Rod and ..)
You seem to be focused on the results. Even if it never changed the result of a single play he was involved in, it's still cheating, it's still dishonest, and it still violates an ethical code of conduct that I think professional athletes should be held to if they want to play a game for large amounts of cash.
Fair enough. I'm just tired of (a) the histrionic moralizing among so many fans and baseball media types about steroid use, as if that's the worst offense in the sport (how about the sweatshop labor that makes just about every player's shoes? Or guys like Brett Myers who beat their wives?) and (b) the automatic assumption that drug-use enhances performance. This is far from proven.
But hey, that's why the all-star game is (sort of) a democracy! If you don't like Manny, don't for him. I will.
Do people still believe that "study?". They took a small sample size of scrubs who were barely good enough to make the majors. They operated under the assumption that all of the players took the same substances for the same amount of they, they assumed they didn't continue use after getting caught, they assumed that a bunch of borderline players were comprable to star-caliber players, etc. The essay doesn't prove anything; it doesn't even suggest anything. I find it a lot less compelling than common sense and anecdotal evidence. I can't believe people still bring it up.
I've said it before, that has to be the worst study Nate Silver has ever published. And this is from someone who is a very big fan of his work, both at BP and at fivethirtyseven. The sample size, self-selection biases, and quite simply overall methodology of that study are an example of hose how no study is better than a poor study in science.
Ryan Howard's career line against southpaws: .229/.311/.459 for a .771 OPS; 310K:84BB in 870 PA.
Ryan Howard's 2008 line against southpaws: .224/.294/.451 for a .746 OPS; 96K:23BB in 265 PA.
Ryan Howard's 2009 line against southpaws: .196/.274/.304 for a .578 OPS; 22K:5BB in 62 PA.
Put those numbers with a (charitably) below-average glove, and you have the living definition of a platoon player - and that doesn't change just because a fanboy wishes it weren't so.
It is very obvious that Howard can't hit lefties. So I think your assertion that "all" of us "laugh" at Howard's platoon-player skills is slightly too broad.
If Howard didn't take walks, he'd be a lefty Marcus Thames.
Howard's only problem with lefties is the K rate goes way up, and he's been improving that every year. He struck out 36% of the PA against lefties in 2006 and it was down to 33% in 2008. Not nearly good enough, but it's improving. He has a batting average excluding Ks of over .400 vs both RHP and LHP. If he can continue to develop more discipline facing LHP, his splits will improve.