April 6, 2009

Preseason Predictions

Staff Picks for 2009

by Baseball Prospectus

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Today we reveal the Baseball Prospectus staff predictions for the division standings and the major player awards (MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year) in the American and National Leagues. Each staff member's division standings predictions may be found later in the article. Here, we present a wisdom-of-the-crowds summary of the results. In each table you'll find the average rank of each team in their division with first-place votes in parentheses, plus the results of our pre-season MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year voting. Picking favorites for the Wild Card for the respective leagues initially might have seemed easy, since the selections universally favored the second-place team in the AL East, while all but two voters picked their second-place teams in the NL East to earn the non-division champ playoff team, but a tie in the rankings had to be broken in favor of the team named the Wild Card winner on the most individual ballots, which is sure to upset some people.

For the MVP voting, we've slightly amended the traditional points system in place that's been used elsewhere, dropping fourth- and fifth-place votes to make it 10-7-5 for the MVP Award, and the regular 5-3-1 for the Cy Young and Rookie of the Year Awards (that's 5 points for a first-place vote, 3 points for a second-place vote, etc.). Next to each of these selections we've listed the total number of ballots, followed by the total number of points, and then the number of first-place votes in parentheses, if any were received.

American League Standings

AL East

Team                 Average    Total
Boston Red Sox         1.4  (8)   17
New York Yankees*      2.2  (2)   26
Tampa Bay Rays         2.5  (2)   30
Toronto Blue Jays      4.3        52
Baltimore Orioles      4.6        55

AL Central

Team                 Average    Total
Cleveland Indians      1.2 (10)   14
Minnesota Twins        2.9        35
Detroit Tigers         3.0        36
Chicago White Sox      3.3  (2)   39
Kansas City Royals     4.7        56

AL West

Team                 Average    Total
Oakland Athletics      1.7  (6)   20
LA Angels of Anaheim   1.8  (4)   21
Texas Rangers          2.8  (2)   33
Seattle Mariners       3.8        46

Individual Awards

AL MVP

1. CF Grady Sizemore, Indians 10, 83 (5)
2. 1B Mark Teixeira, Yankees 9, 73 (4)
3. 3B Evan Longoria, Rays 5, 32 (1)
4. LF Matt Holliday, A's 4, 15 (1)
5. 1B Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox 2, 15 (1)
6. 1B Miguel Cabrera, Tigers 2, 14
7. CF Josh Hamilton, Rangers 1, 7
8. SS Alexei Ramirez, White Sox 1, 5
9. 1B Justin Morneau, Twins 1, 5
10. 2B Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox 1, 5

AL Cy Young

1. CC Sabathia, Yankees 8, 32 (5)
2. Roy Halladay, Blue Jays 6, 12
3. Josh Beckett, Red Sox 3, 11 (1)
4. Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox 2, 10 (2)
5. Francisco Liriano, Twins 3, 9 (1)
6. Felix Hernandez, Mariners 3, 9 (1)
7. James Shields, Rays 3, 9 (1)
8. Jon Lester, Red Sox 2, 6 (1)
9. John Danks, White Sox 2, 4
10. Zack Greinke, Royals 1, 3
11. Joba Chamberlain, Yankees 1, 1
12. Justin Verlander, Tigers 1, 1
13. Scott Kazmir, Rays 1, 1

AL RotY

1. C Matt Wieters, Orioles 9, 39 (6)
2. LHP David Price, Rays 11, 31 (3)
3. OF Travis Snider, Blue Jays 9, 29 (3)
4. LHP Brett Anderson, Athletics 4, 6
5. SS Elvis Andrus, Rangers 1, 1
6. RHP Trevor Cahill, Athletics 1, 1

National League Standings

NL East

Team                 Average     Total
New York Mets          1.1 (11)    13
Atlanta Braves*        2.5         30
Philadelphia Phillies  2.5  (1)    30
Florida Marlins        4.1         49
Washington Nationals   4.8         58

NL Central

Team                 Average     Total
Chicago Cubs           1.2 (11)    14
Milwaukee Brewers      2.8         33
St. Louis Cardinals    3.1  (1)    37
Cincinnati Reds        3.3         39
Pittsburgh Pirates     5.2         62
Houston Astros         5.6         67

NL West

Team                 Average     Total
Los Angeles Dodgers    1.1 (11)    13
Arizona Diamondbacks   2.1  (1)    25
San Francisco Giants   3.1         37
Colorado Rockies       3.8         46
San Diego Padres       4.9         59

Individual Awards:

NL MVP

1. 1B Albert Pujols, Cardinals 9, 75 (4)
2. 3B David Wright, Mets 6, 49 (3)
3. LF Manny Ramirez, Dodgers 4, 37 (3)
4. SS Hanley Ramirez, Marlins 5, 29
5. SS Jose Reyes, Mets 3, 25 (2)
6. C Brian McCann, Braves 2, 14
7. CF Carlos Beltran, Mets 2, 10
8. RF Milton Bradley, Cubs 1, 5
9. LHP Johan Santana, Mets 1, 5
10. 1B Ryan Howard, Phillies 1, 5
11. 1B Joey Votto, Reds 1, 5
12. LF Ryan Braun, Brewers 1, 5

NL Cy Young

1. Tim Lincecum, Giants 10, 38 (5)
2. Johan Santana, Mets 8, 34 (6)
3. Rich Harden, Cubs 3, 9 (1)
4. Brandon Webb, D'backs 4, 6
5. Jake Peavy, Padres 2, 4
6. Yovani Gallardo, Brewers 2, 4
7. Chad Billingsley, Dodgers 2, 4
8. Cole Hamels, Phillies 2, 4
9. Ted Lilly, Cubs 1, 3
10. Dan Haren, D'backs 1, 1
11. Derek Lowe, Braves 1, 1

NL RotY

1. CF Cameron Maybin, Marlins 10, 42 (6)
2. CF Colby Rasmus, Cardinals 8, 18
3. CF Dexter Fowler, Rockies 4, 14 (2)
4. CF Jordan Schafer, Braves 5, 13 (2)
5. CF Andrew McCutchen, Pirates 5, 13 (2)
6. RHP Ken Kawakami, Braves 2, 4
7. RHP Jordan Zimmermann, Nationals 1, 3
8. RHP Tommy Hanson, Braves 1, 1

Individual Ballots:

• William Burke
• Will Carroll
• Clay Davenport
• Steven Goldman
• Kevin Goldstein
• Gary Huckabay
• Jay Jaffe
• Christina Kahrl
• David Laurila
• Marc Normandin
• John Perrotto
• Joe Sheehan

William Burke

AL Standings

AL East       AL Central       AL West
Yankees       Indians          Rangers
Red Sox *     White Sox        Athletics
Orioles       Tigers           Angels
Rays          Twins            Mariners
Blue Jays     Royals           

AL MVP
1. Mark Teixeira
2. Grady Sizemore
3. Justin Morneau

AL Cy Young
1. Josh Beckett
2. John Danks
3. Joba Chamberlain

AL RotY
1. David Price
2. Travis Snider
3. Brett Anderson

NL Standings

NL East       NL Central       NL West
Mets          Cardinals        Dodgers
Braves        Cubs *           Giants
Phillies      Reds             Diamondbacks
Marlins       Astros           Rockies
Nationals     Brewers          Padres
              Pirates

NL MVP
1. Manny Ramirez
2. Albert Pujols
3. Carlos Beltran

NL Cy Young
1. Johan Santana
2. Yovani Gallardo
3. Brandon Webb

NL RotY
1. Andrew McCutchen
2. Cameron Maybin
3. Jordan Schafer

Will Carroll

AL Standings

AL East       AL Central       AL West
Red Sox       White Sox        Athletics
Yankees *     Indians          Angels
Rays          Tigers           Rangers
Orioles       Twins            Mariners
Blue Jays     Royals  

AL MVP
1. Kevin Youkilis
2. Josh Hamilton
3. Mark Teixeira

AL Cy Young
1. Daisuke Matsuzaka
2. James Shields
3. CC Sabathia

AL RotY
1. Matt Wieters
2. David Price
3. Travis Snider (AL East getting richer!)

NL Standings

NL East       NL Central       NL West
Mets          Cubs             Diamondbacks
Phillies      Brewers *        Dodgers
Marlins       Cardinals        Giants
Braves        Pirates          Rockies
Nationals     Reds             Padres
              Astros      

NL MVP
1. Albert Pujols
2. Hanley Ramirez
3. Jose Reyes (wow, I'm way out on a limb here ...)

NL Cy Young
1. Tim Lincecum
2. Ted Lilly
3. Yovani Gallardo

NL RotY
1. Cameron Maybin
2. Dexter Fowler
3. Andrew McCutchen (it's the return of speed! Good story that it's speed not power in NL)

Clay Davenport

AL Standings

AL East       AL Central       AL West
Red Sox       Indians          Athletics
Yankees       Twins            Angels
Rays          Tigers           Mariners
Blue Jays     Royals           Rangers
Orioles       White Sox

AL MVP
1. Grady Sizemore
2. Miguel Cabrera
3. Evan Longoria

AL Cy Young
1. CC Sabathia
2. Josh Beckett
3. James Shields

AL RotY
1. Travis Snider
2. Matt Wieters
3. Trevor Cahill

NL Standings

NL East       NL Central       NL West
Mets          Cubs             Dodgers
Phillies      Brewers          Diamondbacks
Braves        Reds             Giants
Nationals     Cardinals        Rockies
Marlins       Pirates          Padres
              Astros 

NL MVP
1. David Wright
2. Albert Pujols
3. Hanley Ramirez

NL Cy Young
1. Johan Santana
2. Tim Lincecum
3. Rich Harden

NL RotY
1. Jordan Schafer
2. Jordan Zimmermann
3. Colby Rasmus

Steven Goldman

AL Standings

AL East       AL Central       AL West
Red Sox       Indians          Athletics
Rays *        Tigers           Angels
Yankees       Twins            Rangers
Blue Jays     White Sox        Mariners
Orioles       Royals

AL MVP
1. Mark Teixeira
2. Grady Sizemore
3. Evan Longoria

AL Cy Young
1. CC Sabathia
2. Felix Hernandez
3. Scott Kazmir

AL RotY
1. Matt Wieters
2. Travis Snider
3. David Price

NL Standings

NL East       NL Central       NL West
Mets          Cubs             Dodgers
Braves *      Brewers          Diamondbacks
Phillies      Cardinals        Giants
Nationals     Reds             Rockies
Marlins       Astros           Padres
              Pirates

NL MVP
1. David Wright
2. Albert Pujols
3. Ryan Braun

NL Cy Young
1. Tim Lincecum
2. Johan Santana
3. Brandon Webb

NL RotY
1. Dexter Fowler
2. Colby Rasmus
3. Jordan Schafer

Kevin Goldstein

AL Standings

AL East       AL Central       AL West
Yankees       Indians          Angels
Red Sox *     White Sox        Athletics
Rays          Tigers           Rangers
Orioles       Royals           Mariners
Blue Jays     Twins           

AL MVP
1. Mark Teixeira
2. Grady Sizemore
3. Matt Holliday

AL Cy Young
1. Daisuke Matsuzaka
2. Francisco Liriano
3. Felix Hernandez

AL RotY
1. Matt Wieters
2. Travis Snider
3. David Price

NL Standings

NL East       NL Central       NL West
Mets          Cubs             Dodgers
Phillies *    Cardinals        Diamondbacks
Braves        Reds             Giants
Marlins       Brewers          Rockies
Nationals     Pirates          Padres
              Astros

NL MVP
1. Manny Ramirez
2. Albert Pujols
3. Ryan Howard

NL Cy Young
1. Tim Lincecum
2. Jake Peavy
3. Johan Santana

NL RotY
1. Cameron Maybin
2. Colby Rasmus
3. Tommy Hanson

Gary Huckabay

AL Standings

AL East       AL Central       AL West
Red Sox       Indians          Athletics
Yankees *     Twins            Angels
Rays          Tigers           Rangers
Blue Jays     White Sox        Mariners
Orioles       Royals   

AL MVP
1. Grady Sizemore
2. Mark Teixeira
3. Kevin Youkilis

AL Cy Young
1. Francisco Liriano
2. CC Sabathia
3. Roy Halladay

AL RotY
1. Travis Snider
2. Matt Wieters
3. David Price

NL Standings

NL East       NL Central       NL West
Mets          Cubs             Dodgers
Braves *      Brewers          Diamondbacks
Phillies      Reds             Giants
Marlins       Cardinals        Rockies
Nationals     Pirates          Padres
              Astros

NL MVP
1. David Wright
2. Brian McCann
3. Hanley Ramirez

NL Cy Young
1. Rich Harden
2. Tim Lincecum
3. Jake Peavy

NL RotY
1. Cameron Maybin
2. Colby Rasmus
3. Andrew McCutchen

Jay Jaffe

AL Standings

AL East       AL Central       AL West
Rays          Indians          Angels
Yankees *     Tigers           Athletics
Red Sox       White Sox        Rangers
Orioles       Twins            Mariners
Blue Jays     Royals

AL MVP
1. Evan Longoria
2. Mark Teixeira
3. Dustin Pedroia

AL Cy Young
1. CC Sabathia
2. Zack Greinke
3. John Danks

AL RotY
1. Matt Wieters
2. David Price
3. Rick Porcello

NL Standings

NL East       NL Central       NL West
Mets          Cubs             Dodgers
Braves *      Brewers          Diamondbacks
Phillies      Reds             Rockies
Marlins       Cardinals        Giants
Nationals     Pirates          Padres
              Astros

NL MVP
1. Albert Pujols
2. Manny Ramirez
3. Hanley Ramirez

NL Cy Young
1. Tim Lincecum
2. Brandon Webb
3. Chad Billingsley

NL RotY
1. Cameron Maybin
2. Colby Rasmus
3. Jordan Schafer

Christina Kahrl

AL Standings

AL East       AL Central       AL West
Red Sox       White Sox        Angels
Rays *        Indians          Rangers
Yankees       Twins            Athletics
Blue Jays     Royals           Mariners
Orioles       Tigers

AL MVP
1. Grady Sizemore, Indians
2. Evan Longoria, Rays
3. Alexei Ramirez, White Sox

AL Cy Young
1. Jon Lester, Red Sox
2. CC Sabathia, Yankees
3. Roy Halladay, Jays

AL RotY
1. David Price, Rays
2. Matt Wieters, Orioles
3. Elvis Andrus, Rangers

NL Standings

NL East       NL Central       NL West
Mets          Cubs             Dodgers
Braves *      Cardinals        Diamondbacks
Phillies      Brewers          Giants
Marlins       Reds             Rockies
Nationals     Pirates          Padres
              Astros   

NL MVP
1. Jose Reyes, Mets
2. Albert Pujols, Cardinals
3. Carlos Beltran, Mets

NL Cy Young
1. Johan Santana, Mets
2. Tim Lincecum, Giants
3. Dan Haren, D'backs

NL RotY
1. Cameron Maybin, Marlins
2. Ken Kawakami, Braves
3. Andrew McCutchen, Pirates

David Laurila

AL Standings

AL East       AL Central       AL West
Rays          Indians          Rangers
Red Sox *     Twins            Angels
Yankees       Tigers           Athletics
Blue Jays     White Sox        Mariners
Orioles       Royals   

AL MVP
1. Grady Sizemore
2. Miguel Cabrera
3. Matt Holliday

AL Cy Young
1. James Shields
2. Roy Halladay
3. Justin Verlander

AL RotY
1. Travis Snider
2. Brett Anderson
3. David Price

NL Standings

NL East       NL Central       NL West
Mets          Cubs             Dodgers
Phillies *    Reds             Giants
Braves        Brewers          Diamondbacks
Marlins       Pirates          Rockies
Nationals     Cardinals        Padres
              Astros

NL MVP
1. Albert Pujols
2. David Wright
3. Joey Votto

NL Cy Young
1. Johan Santana
2. Tim Lincecum
3. Brandon Webb

NL RotY
1. Andrew McCutchen
2. Cameron Maybin
3. Colby Rasmus

Marc Normandin

AL Standings

AL East       AL Central       AL West
Red Sox       Indians          Angels
Rays *        Twins            Athletics
Yankees       Tigers           Mariners
Blue Jays     White Sox        Rangers
Orioles       Royals

AL MVP
1. Grady Sizemore
2. Mark Teixeira
3. Evan Longoria

AL Cy Young
1. CC Sabathia
2. Josh Beckett
3. Roy Halladay

AL RotY
1. Matt Wieters
2. David Price
3. Brett Anderson

NL Standings

NL East       NL Central       NL West
Mets          Cubs             Dodgers
Braves *      Brewers          Diamondbacks
Phillies      Cardinals        Giants
Marlins       Reds             Rockies
Nationals     Pirates          Padres
              Astros

NL MVP
1. Albert Pujols
2. Hanley Ramirez
3. David Wright

NL Cy Young
1. Tim Lincecum
2. Cole Hamels
3. Derek Lowe

NL RotY
1. Jordan Schafer
2. Cameron Maybin
3. Colby Rasmus

John Perrotto

AL Standings

AL East       AL Central       AL West
Red Sox       Indians          Athletics
Yankees *     Twins            Angels
Rays          Tigers           Rangers
Blue Jays     White Sox        Mariners
Orioles       Royals 

AL MVP
1. Matt Holliday
2. Mark Teixeira
3. Grady Sizemore

AL Cy Young
1. CC Sabathia
2. Roy Halladay
3. Jon Lester

AL RotY
1. David Price
2. Travis Snider
3. Brett Anderson

NL Standings

NL East       NL Central       NL West
Phillies      Cubs             Dodgers
Mets *        Cardinals        Diamondbacks
Braves        Brewers          Rockies
Marlins       Reds             Padres
Nationals     Astros           Giants
              Pirates

NL MVP
1. Manny Ramirez
2. David Wright
3. Milton Bradley

NL Cy Young
1. Johan Santana
2. Rich Harden
3. Cole Hamels

NL RotY
1. Cameron Maybin
2. Colby Rasmus
3. Dexter Fowler

Joe Sheehan

AL Standings

AL East       AL Central       AL West
Red Sox       Indians          Athletics
Yankees *     Twins            Angels
Rays          Tigers           Rangers
Blue Jays     Royals           Mariners
Orioles       White Sox

AL MVP
1. Mark Teixeira
2. Grady Sizemore
3. Matt Holliday

AL Cy Young
1. Felix Hernandez
2. Roy Halladay
3. Francisco Liriano

AL RotY
1. Matt Wieters
2. David Price
3. Travis Snider

NL Standings

NL East       NL Central       NL West
Mets          Cubs             Dodgers
Braves *      Reds             Diamondbacks
Phillies      Brewers          Giants
Marlins       Cardinals        Rockies
Nationals     Astros           Padres
              Pirates

NL MVP
1. Jose Reyes
2. Brian McCann
3. Johan Santana

NL Cy Young
1. Johan Santana
2. Chad Billingsley
3. Tim Lincecum

NL RotY
1. Dexter Fowler
2. Cameron Maybin
3. Ken Kawakami