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December 4, 2000 One Man's BallotA Look at the Hall's HopefulI decided to break down this year's Hall of Fame candidates by VORP. A full description is available at http://www.stathead.com, but the measure is essentially the number of runs contributed by a player beyond what a replacement level player at the same position would contribute in equal playing time, adjusted for park and league. Note that outfielders are considered as a single group, so center fielders should get a boost relative to their ranking here, and corner outfielders (especially LF) should be downgraded a bit. Quality of defense played at the position is not included. Legend
I'll also list players with comparable career VORP. Data is from www.baseball1.com's free downloadable database of players statistics. First-time eligible position players
NAME PLAYED YRS PA MLV PMLV VORP MLVR SB CS WINFIELD,DAVE 1973-1995 22 12244 521.8 357.3 719.7 .175 223 96 WHITAKER,LOU 1977-1995 19 9787 222.1 348.0 628.0 .095 143 75 PUCKETT,KIRBY 1984-1995 12 7750 296.5 254.8 479.6 .161 134 76 MATTINGLY,DON 1982-1995 14 7612 325.7 164.8 385.2 .178 14 9 PARRISH,LANCE 1977-1995 19 7716 47.2 166.5 374.5 .023 28 37 GIBSON,KIRK 1979-1995 17 6577 201.3 127.8 355.9 .132 284 78 VanSLYKE,ANDY 1983-1995 13 6405 206.6 97.1 314.3 .126 245 59 JOHNSON,HOWARD 1982-1995 14 5649 151.2 96.0 277.0 .106 231 77 KRUK,JOHN 1986-1995 10 4548 241.6 132.4 258.5 .218 58 31 Players with comparable career VORP:
Considering just seasons spent at their primary position, Whitaker ranks sixth all time among second basemen in career VORP (behind just Collins, Hornsby, Morgan, Lajoie, and Gehringer). Winfield ranks #22 among outfielders, Puckett 46th. Mattingly 25th, Johnson 42nd (at 3B), and Kruk doesn't make the top 50. Parrish is 13th among catchers. I'd take Winfield and Whitaker, with Puckett just falling short. Whitaker probably belongs in the Hall on his own merits, without help from Alan Trammell. As Gary Huckabay has already noted, Mattingly's career isn't impressive for a first baseman by Hall of Fame standards. First-time eligible pitchers
NAME PLAYED YR G W-L:SV IP ERA ERA+ RP VORP RIJO,JOSE 1984-1995 12 332 111-87:3 1785 3.16 124 139.2 337.6 STEWART,DAVE 1978-1995 16 523 168-129:19 2629 3.95 105 20.0 312.2 RIGHETTI,DAVE 1979-1995 16 718 82-79:252 1403 3.46 118 82.2 238.1 DARLING,RON 1983-1995 13 382 136-116:0 2360 3.87 103 -24.6 237.7 HENKE,TOM 1982-1995 14 642 41-42:311 789 2.67 155 130.9 218.6 BEDROSIAN,STEVE 1981-1995 14 732 76-79:184 1190 3.38 109 55.0 187.3 BROWNING,TOM 1984-1995 12 302 123-90:0 1920 3.94 92 -36.4 177.1 DESHAIES,JIM 1984-1995 12 257 84-95:0 1524 4.14 94 -56.3 113.2 Comparables:
Henke's the only one I'd consider, and it depends on how high a standard you set for relief pitchers. Henke's probably in the top 10 of all-time closers, excluding active players. Holdover position players
NAME PLAYED YRS PA MLV PMLV VORP MLVR SB CS RICE,JIM 1974-1989 16 8959 339.2 258.2 512.3 .158 58 34 CARTER,GARY 1974-1992 19 8887 239.7 253.4 483.2 .111 39 42 CONCEPCION,DAVE 1970-1988 19 9480 -44.9 161.8 450.5 -.016 321 109 PARKER,DAVE 1973-1991 19 10097 360.2 183.0 445.0 .147 154 113 HERNANDEZ,KEITH 1974-1990 17 8472 395.2 200.2 426.9 .195 98 63 MURPHY,DALE 1976-1993 18 8974 281.5 124.3 381.2 .126 161 68 GARVEY,STEVE 1969-1987 19 9343 322.6 123.0 368.5 .142 83 62 Comparables:
Value at position: Carter 10th, Concepcion 16th. Hernandez 14th, Garvey 29th. Murphy, Parker, and Rice not in top 50 (Rice missed it due to seasons at DH). I've made my case for Jim Rice before, and I'd vote for him. Carter's rank as a catcher gets him in. VORP doesn't know about Hernandez's defensive reputation, but at first base, I don't give it much weight anyways. Holdover pitchers
NAME PLAYED YR G W-L:SV IP ERA ERA+ RP VORP BLYLEVEN,BERT 1970-1992 22 692 287-250:0 4969 3.31 114 296.5 848.7 JOHN,TOMMY 1963-1989 26 760 288-231:4 4710 3.34 113 203.0 726.4 KAAT,JIM 1959-1983 25 898 283-237:18 4530 3.45 103 96.4 599.7 TIANT,LUIS 1964-1982 19 573 229-172:15 3486 3.30 107 144.4 531.8 MORRIS,JACK 1977-1994 18 549 254-186:0 3823 3.90 105 80.7 505.5 GUIDRY,RON 1975-1988 14 368 170-91:4 2391 3.29 125 189.9 455.7 GOSSAGE,RICH 1972-1994 22 1002 124-107:310 1809 3.01 126 159.4 360.4 SUTTER,BRUCE 1976-1988 12 661 68-71:300 1042 2.83 124 101.7 217.5 Comparables:
Blyleven is 14th all time, John is 31st, and Kaat just misses the top 50. Blyleven ought to be a no-brainer, and will be one of the great travesties of the HoF if he never gets inducted. I give Tommy John some "pioneer" credit for popularizing a medical advance that has changed the game, and would vote for him also. Guidry did an awful lot with a short career, and gets in on peak value. I take Gossage and Sutter easily, the latter getting extra credit for being essentially the first modern closer. Wrap-up My ballot ends up being:
And if I'm feeling generous, flip a coin between Henke and Puckett to fill the ballot. There was some discussion on the Red Sox list about Tiant's qualifications versus Tom Henke's, so I took a look at that also. Part of the difference is in how one thinks relievers and starters should be compared for Hall of Fame qualifications. Tiant has a case as a borderline pick, but depending on how many relievers you think ought to be represented in the Hall from the last 20 years, Henke may edge him out. Among starting pitchers since 1960-99, Tiant is 18th in wins, 38th in runs prevented, 23rd in VORP. His VORP is just above Catfish Hunter and Jerry Koosman, and just behind Dennis Martinez and Frank Tanana. Looking at individual seasons, Tiant finished in the top 20 VORP among starters as follows:
1966 18th 1967 10th 1968 2nd 1972 8th 1973 12th 1974 5th 1976 5th 1978 16th Overall: 8 times a top 20 starter, 4 times in the top 10. Let's not underrate Henke. Over a 10 year stretch (1986-95) he topped 30 saves 6 times, including 4 in a row, posting a sub 3.00 ERA in 8 of them. Among post-1960 relievers, he's 7th in saves, and 7th in runs prevented, and 19th in VORP. His low finish in VORP is mainly due to relievers throwing more innings before the mid-1980's. His rate of VORP (VORP per IP) is best among all relievers with 700 or more innings since 1960. His top 20 finishes among relievers in VORP are:
1986 14th 1987 2nd 1989 4th 1990 9th 1993 11th 1995 8th 6 times a top 20 reliever, 4 in the top 10. Tiant's probably among the best 30 starting pitchers of the past 40 years. Henke is in the among the top 15 relievers over the same time span. Of course, Henke didn't become a full time reliever/closer until he was 28, so his career totals aren't as impressive as some of his contemporaries, but his peak value is comparable. If you think that there should be more than twice as many starters as relievers represented in the Hall over the post-expansion era, then Tiant probably gets the edge. If the ratio is less than 2:1, Henke arguably has a better statistical case. Keith Woolner can be reached at kwoolner@baseballprospectus.com.
Keith Woolner is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 0 comments have been left for this article.
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