Prospectus Preview: Wo... (10/23)
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October 23, 2008 Prospectus TodayAdvantage AcquiredAs scripted, Cole Hamels pitched another beautiful post-season game, going seven innings, mixing his fastball and changeup to keep the Rays off-balance, and pounding the strike zone. He allowed two runs, one a homer on a hanging curve to Carl Crawford, the other a double on a nice piece of hitting by Akinori Iwamura, but never surrendered an early lead. Ryan Madson and Brad Lidge were perfect out of the bullpen, and just like that, the Phillies had a measure of control of the World Series. You can't say enough about Hamels, who even when he was giving up a couple of runs never seemed likely to lose the lead. Not to move too far from the realm of measurables, but there is a fluidity to him, to his mechanics, that makes him enjoyable to watch. The aesthetics don't get him any extra outs, but as I said last night in the Game One roundtable, I was pretty sad when he left the game after seven innings. He's probably been the MVP of October. Hamels had an early lead because Chase Utley failed. With one on and one out in the first, the Rays used a shift on Utley, the kind that has become de rigueur for many lefty pull hitters. It seemed a strange choice given how hard it is to pull Scott Kazmir, but the Phillies went with it. With the right side of the infield unguarded, Utley tried to lay a bunt down for an easy single, but fouled it off. A few very close pitches later, he yanked a ball into the right-field grandstand. The very best player on the Phillies had the biggest hit in his first World Series game, perhaps chipping away at his status as one of baseball's most criminally underrated stars. The 2-0 lead would later stretch to 3-0, and it held up in part because B.J. Upton didn't run. Twice. In the first, Upton checked his swing and hit a grounder to second that became a 4-6-3 double play. The ball was hit slowly, and probably should have been just a forceout, especially given Upton's speed. Upton, however, not only broke slowly from the box, but didn't speed up when he could clearly see that a double play was developing. His lack of effort, whatever the reason, cost the Rays a baserunner and an out; there's really no question that Upton would have been safe on the play had he run. In the third, Upton came to the plate with one out and the bases loaded, Tropicana Dome's noise level reaching "ouch" for the fourth time that evening. This was one of those showdowns that makes you thrilled to be a baseball fan, a fantastic young pitcher in the midst of a great run against a fantastic young hitter who's been killing the ball. Each was the biggest reason their team had made it through two post-season series, and each would be key for their teams in the World Series. Now, they were facing off, and even though it was the third inning, it felt much later. Hamels fell behind 2-1, then threw a changeup that Upton ripped to the left of Pedro Feliz, who made a terrific stab and began a 5-4-3 double play. Once again, though, the focus was on Upton, who loped down the line. Whether a furious charge down the line would have changed the outcome isn't quite as clear as it was on the earlier play, but the outcome isn't the issue. At the point of contact, Upton has a chance to create a run with his legs by staying out of the double play. I'll say that again: a run was on the line, in the World Series, and Upton didn't work to get it in. I really, truly feel about 25 years older writing these things. To me, "hustle" is a meaningless word, used to prop up mediocre players who are good playing to the populist notion of visible effort, and criticize talent-laden ones who understand the concept of a long season. Upton, however, showed a lack of effort in a situation that materially affected his team's chance of winning. It's a burden, perhaps, to have so much speed that you would be criticized when a slower player's sloth would be hand-waved away, but that's the price you pay for otherworldly talent. It's the continuation of a cycle with Upton, who cost the Rays runs and outs earlier this season with his lack of effort. This isn't about putting on a good show for the fans. This is exactly the same as criticizing a player for air-mailing a throw that allows runners to advance, or a manager for screwing up a pinch-hitting decision, or a GM for a terrible trade. There was an action, and we can quantify the impact of that action, and by doing so, determine that the action was costly. The difference in expectation between two out and no one on, and one out and a runner on first, is about four-tenths of a run, and there's little question that Upton could have beaten the throw. On the double play, his chance of being safe was less, but the payoff-a run-was definite. The Rays lost 3-2; you tell me how important it was. ---
Joe Sheehan is an author of Baseball Prospectus.
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2 thoughts;
1. Pena should have been on second base on the pickoff, that was as blatant a balk as you'll ever see.
2. I was at Game Three of the ALCS and in EVERY SINGLE HALF INNING Lester and Garza would complete their warmups and have to stand around for 30-60 seconds waiting for the "go" signal from the second base ump. It was ludicrous.
I think "blatant as you'll ever see" is a bit of a stretch. It was certainly a questionable non-call, but Hamels' right leg never crossed behind his left, nor did his right toe ever point toward home plate. His right foot came down a bit forward, which is questionable.
The applicable rule is:
"(c) The pitcher, while touching his plate, fails to step directly toward a base before throwing to that base;"
Did Hamels step directly toward first base? I honestly don't know.
I have to agree with beegee. LHP's have the option to step off the rubber with the back (left) foot and make a quick snap-throw to first, or the more common front leg lift-and-throw toward the bag. If the LHP crosses the rubber with his lift leg/knee, then he must go toward the plate (this is when most runners break for a steal vs. a LHP, unless they are going on first movement). So many Lefties have adapted their deliveries to just lift the front leg straight up (without crossing the rubber), such that a runner can't get a jump until they show an obvious move toward the plate. Cole never made such an obvious move, as Pena's early jump didn't give him the chance.
I liked that Fox showed the verbal exchange between Maddon and home plate umpire Tim Welke regarding the balk. Welke was focused on the aspect of "intent" to deliver the ball to home or first, and intent is tough to jusdge for a LHP. When you watch the replay, Cole never took his eyes off of 1B, and Pena took a very early jump, clearly going on first movement. At no point did Cole look toward the plate or initiate movement in that direction.
Now the call was one for the base umps to make, rather than Welke, but it has been somewhat established that lefties display their directional intent based on the position of the landing foot relative to a line at 45 degrees, the angle splitting the right angle between the plate and 1B. Cole landed very close to that imaginary line, but appeared to be on the "safe" side of 45 degrees - though he didn't step "directly" at ANY base (which is actually common for LHP's - just ask Andy Pettitte).
As a pitching coach and former LHP, I have taught this exact move to many players, and it is legal within the written rules. However, many opposing coaches have asked for balk calls, as the move is admittedly deceiving, and the rules are vague. Balk calls are among the most difficult to ascertain, particularly with LHP's - it's one of the advantages that we lefties enjoy!
I should also mention that Cole does not employ a slide step, unlike many of the pro's we see these days. Instead he uses his natural leg lift, whether from the windup or the stretch. The popularization of the slide step has made the lift-and-throw move somewhat moot for those pitchers that use it, so it makes sense that Cole's move looked somewhat irregular.