Call It In The Air!

Predicting Postseason Series

by Dave Pease

Printer-friendly

Contact Author

Every year at around this time, the staff of Baseball Prospectus likes to engage in a complete exercise in futility. I'm not talking about Somersizing, resolving to balance the checkbook for the rest of the year or attempting to teach Derek Zumsteg the wonders of laying off the curve ball. What we end up doing has much less a chance of success: we write--and publish--our playoff predictions.

As we say when we publish our preseason predictions, there's a reason we don't print this stuff in the book. With all the possible performance spikes, outside influences, injuries and atypical development that major-league squads experience, the complexity of the system is generally enough to make even full-season predictions a sucker bet. Things fall our way in some divisions and we get completely snookered in others, and we're certainly not the only outfit to run into that type of performance.

Predicting postseason outcomes is an exercise that makes calling the order of regular-season finish look like an exact science. If you're reading this, I probably don't have to explain how a short series throws the law of averages for a serious loop. In theory, it shouldn't be hard to identify the team that is stronger based on what happened during the regular season, and we can even attempt to account for differences in playoff strategy, such as the devaluation of a deep rotation.

What we can't do is account for the Bobby Jones es of the world--the guys who pull completely out-of-character performances out of their back pockets and dominate 25% of the series as a result. We can't predict Terrence Long injuring his knee, remaining in center field and failing to pull in a Tino Martinez fly ball. That one play could have changed not only the entire game, but the entire series for both teams.

Over the course of a season, these extreme events even out fairly nicely, but the short-series format of the postseason gives rise to all sorts of unlikely heroes. It is those performances that make the playoffs unpredictable, and also a large part of what makes the playoffs great.

As it turns out, last year we were pretty lucky--we correctly called the winner in six of the seven postseason matchups, with the only misstep coming from yours truly in the Mets/Diamondbacks series. This year, we're at .500, and I wouldn't be surprised if we end up below that. Anything can happen.

Hopefully, if you're reading the Playoff Prospectus series, you're getting commentary that you might not get anywhere else. We want to make you think, and we want you to tell us what you think. If we've done that, then we'll consider the whole exercise a success even if we go 0-for-October.

Dave Pease is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @davepease
Click here to see Dave's other articles. You can contact Dave by clicking here

Related Content: Pitcher Abuse, All-Star Game, Pitches Per Plate Appearance, Scoring Every Inning, Defense, Run Scoring, AL Center Fielders, Win Percentage, Pitching, Run Support, Luck, Relievers, Pythagorean Expectation, Major League Baseball, National League, Walks, Walk Rate, First Major-league Hit, First Hit, First Career Hit, Pitchers, Home Run, Baseball Between The Numbers 2, Extra Innings, Increased Strikeouts, Batting Order, Third Base, Underrated Players, Pitcher, First Base, Left-handed Pitcher, Right-handed Pitcher, Breakout, Pinch-hitters, Minor Leagues, PECOTA, Fantasy Games, Minor League Baseball, A's, Replacement Level, Replacement-level, Relief Pitcher, Major Leagues, Designated Hitters, Starting Pitchers, Second Base, Designated Hitter, Should Pitchers Hit, Best Season, 10-year Projections, Starting Pitching, Catcher Defense, Most Valuable Player, Leverage Index, Base-out Leverage Index, Pinch Hitters, Bench Players, The Who, Park Effects, Converted Relievers, Leverage, Win Expectancy, Baseball Prospectus, Player, Minor League Player Of The Year, Team Age, Win Curve, Statistics, Hit By Pitch, Game 1, Home Runs, Hbp, Batting Eye, Home Run Times, Baseball Ops, Stats, Time, Fielding, Good Plays, Pitching Lines, Ground-ball Rate, Groundball Rate. Groundballs, Winning Percentage, One-hitter, Baseball Prospectus 2002, Jeremy Giambi, Era, Support-neutral Statistics, Pitches Per At Bat, No-hitters, Home Run Time, Players Association, Probability, Slow Start, No Home Runs, Run-scoring, Pythagorean Standings, Adjusted Runs Prevented, Glossary, Unearned Runs, Walk-off Home Run, Age 27, Bad Start, Position Player As Pitcher, Minor-league Translations, Four Home Runs, Adjustments, First-career Home Run, Single, Stolen Base, Player Cards, WARP, Equivalent Average, Season-adjusted Statistics, Alltime-adjusted Statistics, Data Use, Off-season, 20 Strikeouts, AT&T Park, Player Development, Science Of Hitting, World Series Home-field Advantage, Rule Changes, Strikeouts, Strikeout Rate, Left-handed Hitters, Defensive Stats, Three True Outcomes, The Process, Hit And Run, On-base Percentage, Slugging Percentage, 10 Runs To A Win, Breakout Seasons, Stolen Base Attempts, Two-start Pitchers, Year Of The Injury, Wins, Walk-off Win, Between-inning Breaks, Hits, Player Age, Backwards Name, Independent League, 2002 All-star Game, Batted Balls, Long Home Runs, Batting, Best Games, All-stars, Runs Per Game, The Call-up, E-book, All Star Game, Pitches, World Team, Bad Season, Numbers, 3-0 Count, Pitcher Usage, Left-handed Pitchers, Runs, Base 3, Base 10, Intentional Hit By Pitches, One-run Games, Three-plus Run Games, Strikeout, Pitchers Hitting, Pitcher Batting, Defensive Interference, Home Plate, Team, Good Process, Game Theory, Batter-pitcher Matchups, Minor Leaguers, Player Aging

0 comments have been left for this article.

<< Previous Article
The Week in Quotes: Se... (10/11)

Next Article >>
The Daily Prospectus: ... (10/13)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS Playoff Prospectus: Come Undone BP En Espanol: Previa de la NLCS: Cubs vs. D... Playoff Prospectus: How Did This Team Get Ma... Playoff Prospectus: Too Slow, Too Late Playoff Prospectus: PECOTA Odds and ALCS Gam... Playoff Prospectus: PECOTA Odds and NLCS Gam... Playoff Prospectus: NLCS Preview: Cubs vs. D...
MORE BY DAVE PEASE 2000-11-13 - Team of The Decade 2000-11-06 - HACKING MASS Results 2000-11-02 - The Daily Prospectus: Andujar Cedeno 2000-10-12 - Call It In The Air! 2000-10-03 - The Daily Prospectus: I Want Out of the Circ... 2000-10-02 - Team Of The Decade 2000-09-28 - Team Of The Decade More...