September 15, 2000

Nowhere Near Doomsday

Parity in 2000

by Jeff Hildebrand

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By now we've all heard the predictions of doom for Major League Baseball. Many sportswriters have solemnly declared that the player compensation structure of the game is fundamentally broken and that only a few teams can compete these days.

The 1998 season was declared to be a model of what we would see in the future, with high-spending teams like the Yankees perpetually threatening to set records for most wins in a season while small spenders like the Marlins--members of the big-spending-menace society just the year before--would be condemned to a miserable existence, finishing 40 games or more out of first place every year.

However, a funny thing has happened along the way to Armageddon. The 1998 season has turned out to be a fluke instead of a trend.

After Monday's games, the Chicago White Sox held the majors' best record with a winning percentage of .601, while the Phillies and Cubs were at the low end of the scale with a .413 winning percentage. At first glance it certainly looks like a very small spread between first and worst; barring a phenomenal September run, no team is going to win 100 games, and no one is even close to a 100-loss pace. That alone suggests that this is a somewhat unusual season, but a little research shows that it actually is a notably competitive year.

If the current pace holds, the .188 spread between best and worst teams' winning percentage would be the second smallest ever. Keith Woolner has done some sorting on the records and the 16 smallest spreads are shown here.

Year    Teams   High    Low   Diff

1900        8   .603   .435   .168
1958       16   .597   .396   .201
1959       16   .610   .409   .201
1982       26   .586   .370   .216
1992       26   .605   .389   .216
1997       28   .623   .401   .222
1987       26   .605   .377   .228
1968       20   .636   .404   .232
1984       26   .642   .407   .235
1990       26   .636   .401   .235
1983       26   .611   .370   .241
1966       20   .606   .364   .242
1999       30   .636   .394   .242
1947       16   .630   .383   .247
1989       26   .611   .364   .247
1994       28   .649   .402   .247

What this in fact shows is that this could be the most competitive year since the American League was formed. There has never been a season with no teams above the .600 level and no teams below the .400 level, but there is a very reasonable chance it could happen this year.

The other thing that jumps out of this table is that something clearly has changed in recent years. Ten of the most competitive seasons have occurred since 1983. As the table shows, one factor that has changed is the number of teams in the majors. However, with everything else being equal, increasing the number of teams would actually increase the expected spread between the best and the worst. (Thanks to reader Tom Love for confirming this particular fact.) So the narrowing of the gap that we have seen in recent years is actually more significant than it would seem at first glance.

If expansion is not responsible for increase in competitiveness, then what is? As much as it might irritate the Chicken Littles of the world, the biggest change in baseball in the recent past is the development of the free-agency system, and the results certainly would indicate that the system has actually helped the competitive balance in the majors. In fact it appears to have helped greatly. The teams that are always in the playoffs (the Braves, Yankees and Indians) are there because they have figured out how to properly use the system to their advantage. That should be applauded, not regarded as a sign of disaster.

Jeff Hildebrand can be reached at jhildebrand@baseballprospectus.com.