June 10, 2008
Future Shock
AL Central Draft Recap
by Kevin Goldstein
Chicago White Sox
Draft Philosophy: Take the best player available at eight, and then sit around for awhile without a second rounder and stick to the college route. Oh yeah, and grab Kenny's kid at some point.
First Pick: Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia; eighth overall
How High He Could Have Gone: He seems to have been in the mix at times to go No. 1 overall, but that was always an extreme long shot. More realistically, he was getting strong consideration by the Giants at five before Posey became available, and the Reds were generally thought to be locked onto him at seven until the last 48 hours.
Path To The Big Leagues: Beckham is an advanced player who should move fairly quickly through the minors. There's nobody blocking his way, as the White Sox have no middle infield prospects of note in the system, and Orlando Cabrera is in the final year of his contract.
Rest of the First Day:
3. Brent Morel, 3B, Cal Poly: Good defensive player w/ more average than power.
4. Drew O'Neil, RHP, Penn State: The biggest ground-ball machine in the draft comes with the usual sidearm issues.
5. Dan Hudson, RHP, Old Dominion: A big righty, he dropped after a poor junior year.
6. Kenny Williams, OF, Wichita State: A good athlete who's not a total nepotism pick, but went three to five rounds higher than expected.
Best Second-Day Selections:
7. Jordan Danks, OF, Texas: Never showed promise coming out of high school, might try one more college year.
8. Kevin Dubler, C, Illinois State: As a left-handed hitting athletic catcher, many expected him to go higher.
23. Kyle Long, LHP, St. Anne's Belfield HS (VA): Bigger than his father Howie, but a poor senior year means he's likely Florida State-bound.
Cleveland Indians
Draft Philosophy: Find something we like at 29 when other options are gone, follow that with a projectable high school arm, then stick to the college route.
First Pick: Lonnie Chisenhall, INF, Pitt CC (NC); 29th overall
How High He Could Have Gone: Seen by most as more of a supplemental first-rounder, he was nonetheless arguably the top non-first base hitting prospect left on the board.
Path To The Big Leagues: Depends on the position. Some think he could play second base, but at third, it's easier to define his future with the Tribe. He'll likely start his career at shortstop, and then get a new position next year.
Rest of the First Day:
2. Trey Haley, RHP, Central Heights HS (TX): Scouts love the body and projection, but command of his fastball is an issue, as is inconsistent stuff.
3. Cord Phelps, 2B, Stanford: Classic Stanford type who plays the game right, but he added power this year by getting away from the "Stanford Swing."
4. David Roberts, RHP, Long Beach State: He went surprisingly high, but he's a big physical pitcher with nice sinker/slider combination.
5. Zack Putnam, RHP, Michigan: Wants second-round money, and some think he's worth it; others worry about his previous shoulder and elbow problems.
6. Jermaine Tice, 3B, College of Charleston: Put up big numbers at smaller school; scouts believe in the average more than the power; offers defensive versatility.
Best Second-Day Selections:
7. Tim Fedroff, OF, North Carolina: A smallish frame dropped him surprisingly low considering his power and speed.
9. Clayton Cook, RHP, Amarillo HS (TX): A 6'4" righty with a loose arm and a lot of upside, he wants more than ninth-round money.
13. Adam Abraham, 3B, Michigan: Also prospect for the NHL, he has power and a big arm; the Tribe wants to see if he can catch.
14. Carlos Moncrief, RHP, Chipola JC (FL): A big power arm, he's raw but has great stuff; a violent delivery and long medical history are concerns.
Detroit Tigers
Draft Philosophy: As usual, take a big guy who throws hard with the first pick. After that, take more big guys who throw hard, and find someone to catch them.
First Pick: Ryan Perry, RHP, Arizona (21st overall)
How High He Could Have Gone: Before Texas thought one of the big names would get to them at 11, they were looking at a number of college closers, including Perry. The Cardinals at 13, Dodgers at 15, Cubs at 19, and Mariners at 20 also had him more realistically in their mix.
Path To The Big Leagues: It depends on what role Detroit chooses for him. He often throws three innings a game as a long set-up man, but he's maintained his velocity deep into outings and also throws a plus slider and decent changeup, leaving many to believe his best value would be as a starter. If Detroit keeps him in the bullpen, his triple-digit velocity will get him out of the minors quickly, no matter how straight it is.
Rest of the First Day:
2. Cody Satterwhite, RHP, Mississippi: Guess what? He's big , and he throws hard.
3. Scott Green, RHP, Kentucky: He's even bigger (6'8"), and throws hard.
4. Brett Jacobsen, RHP, Vanderbilt: Six-foot-six, has velocity, see a trend yet?
5. Alex Avila, C, Alabama: A decent college catcher with solid tools across the board.
6. Tyler Stohr, RHP, North Florida: I guess once they got to the sixth round, 6'2" with a good fastball seemed like enough.
Best Second-Day Selections:
8. Andrew Dirks, OF, Wichita State: Big-time makeup pick, a grinder type who should be a fourth outfielder at the very least.
11. Brandon Douglass, ss, Northern Iowa: Pretty much Dirks, but with infield skills.
13. Jared Gayhart, RHP, Rice: Mostly an outfielder in college, but in a few relief outings he threw hard... and he's pretty big.
Kansas City Royals
Draft Philosophy: Take the best offensive ceiling player in the draft, and follow that up with high-ceiling pitcher after high-ceiling pitcher.
First Pick: Eric Hosmer, 1B, American Heritage HS (FL) (third overall)
How High He Could Have Gone: Three is about it. Kansas City can easily argue that he was the third best talent in the draft, but at no time did he seem to be in Tampa or Pittsburgh's mix.
Path To The Big Leagues: Forget about a comparison to Billy Butler--he's a DH, while Hosmer has the athleticism to become a quality defender at first base, and may even get a shot at the outfield. No matter where he ends up, Hosmer's bat is his ticket to the big leagues, but a Butler-esque rush to the majors is probably not in the cards.
Rest of the First Day:
1. Mike Montgomery, LHP, Hart HS (CA): A tall, thin southpaw who already has effective three-pitch mix, and could move up quickly.
2. Johnny Giovatella, 2B, New Orleans: This diminuitive middle infielder has always put up good numbers and has more baseball skills than his size might indicate.
3. Tyler Sample, RHP, Mullen HS (CO): Plenty of people are wondering how he dropped to the third round; 6'7" righties who can touch 95 mph don't exactly grow on trees.
4. Tim Melville, RHP, Holt HS (MO): Thought to be a mid-first-round talent, the challenge now lies in signing him away from college.
5. John Lamb, LHP, Laguna Hills HS (CA): The southpaw has average stuff, but the polish and feel of a college product.
6. Alex Llanos, OF, PR Baseball Academy (PR): A burner still learning how to play baseball, but he has lots of tools as a starting point.
Best Second-Day Selections:
7. Jason Esposito, 3B, Amity HS (CT): Had some of the best power of any player in the Northeast.
14. Chase Hentges, RHP, Shakopee HS (MN): His body has drawn some Jack McDowell comps, and his easy arm produces low-90s heat; he wants to get paid.
18. Carlo Testa, OF, Belmont: A big athlete with nice tools but little experience against top-flight competition
Minnesota Twins
Draft Philosophy: Follow the Twins' traditional template by taking toolsy athletes for position players, and polished strike-throwers (preferably with a sinker) on the mound.
First Pick: Aaron Hicks, OF, Wilson HS (CA) (14th overall)
How High He Could Have Gone: Believe it or not, he was very high on the Athletics' board for the 12th overall selection--but as a pitcher.
Path To The Big Leagues: There's no need to worry about a clear path for now, as while Hicks is a human toolshed, he's also a raw product who could take a one-level-at-a-time trip to the majors and not be ready until 2012 or later.
Rest of the First Day:
1. Carlos Gutierrez, RHP, Miami: Nowhere near this high on other teams' boards, the Hurricanes closer will bring his outstanding sinker to a starting role once he turns pro.
1. Shooter Hunt, RHP, Tulane: At one point talked about as a top 10 pick, Hunt's late-season slide coincided with command problems and some concerns about his workload and shoulder soreness.
2. Tyler Ladendorf, SS, Howard JC (TX): One of the few players in the draft with speed and true shortstop skills, it was a mild surprise he was still around at pick number 60.
3. Bob Lanigan, RHP, Adelphi: There's a mismatch of body and stuff, as Lanigan is a big guy who is better known for his ability to throw downhill and fill up the strike zone.
4. Danny Ortiz, OF, Harrison HS (PR): Bat speed and foot speed are his main two calling cards.
5. Nick Romero, 3B, San Diego State: A polished college product doesn't blow anyone away, but drew one comparison to Corey Koskie.
6. B.J. Hermsen, RHP, West Deleware HS (IA): A massive right-hander draws wide variety of opinions from scouts. All agree at the very least that he's a project.
Best Second-Day Selections:
8. Jeff Lanning, C, New Orleans: Big, meaty catcher with above-average pop but questionable defense.
11. Dom De la Osa, 2B, Vanderbilt: A down year for the Commodores hurt his stock, but he's profiled as a nice offensive second baseman in the past.
18. Matt Nohelty, OF, Minnesota: A local product, he has plenty of athleticism and center field skills.
Kevin Goldstein is an author of Baseball Prospectus.
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