Schrodinger's Bat: Cle... (03/20)
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March 27, 2008 Schrodinger's BatReminiscing with SFR
"He (Ozzie Smith) plays like he's on a mini-trampoline or wearing helium kangaroo shorts." When I began looking at creating a fielding system based on Retrosheet-style play-by-play data, there were two primary sets of data for which it seemed ideally suited. First, since fine-grained hit location data in the form of zones is not recorded at the minor league level, the system--if indeed it could be proven accurate enough--seemed ideal for measuring defense at the minor league level. Two things validate that: comparisons with UZR at the major league level, and a recent column exploring how the system stacks up against scouting judgments of the best defensive players in each organization. In the end, the three different methods largely agree. The second set of data is historical play-by-play data at the major league level that contains the crucial pieces of information needed to run the system as is. It is this data set that today's column will focus on. In short, there is a subset of the historical play-by-play data set that contains nearly complete records, with reference to which fielder fielded the ball and the particular hit type (line drive, grounder, fly ball, popup). Armed with this information, the SFR algorithms can be executed against data from 1988 through 1998 without having to make any corrections or allowances for missing data. Earlier this week, that's exactly what I did, and so we'll get in our Way Back Machine and sift through the results for that particular eleven-year period. Hopefully we'll bring to mind a few fond--and perhaps not so fond--memories of players from that era. So let's start our look at the decade-plus-one in Table 1, with the overall SFR leader from each season (for a single team), regardless of position: Year Player Team Pos Age Balls Runners Diff SFR 1988 Ozzie Guillen CHA SS 24 804 155 36 27.0 1989 Ozzie Smith SLN SS 34 709 143 33 24.6 1990 Ozzie Smith SLN SS 35 532 92 36 27.3 1991 Ryne Sandberg CHN 2B 31 721 162 27 19.7 1992 Craig Grebeck CHA SS 27 393 86 28 20.9 1993 Scott Fletcher BOS 2B 34 522 96 27 20.2 1994 Cal Ripken BAL SS 33 459 105 20 15.1 1995 Cal Ripken BAL SS 34 574 121 27 20.5 1996 Mark Lemke ATL 2B 30 533 111 24 18.0 1997 Rey Ordonez NYN SS 25 488 95 28 21.0 1998 Robin Ventura CHA 3B 30 458 73 28 22.2 As a quick refresher: Balls are the number of balls allocated to the fielder's virtual area of responsibility, Runners are the actual number of runners who reached base. Diff is the delta between the number of runners who would have been expected to reach versus the number who actually did, and SFR is a conversion of that difference (broken down into one and two base components) into runs saved above or below what an average fielder would have done. Those players who bubble up to the top in Table 1 don't really come as a surprise, which gives us confidence that the system does indeed function as expected against this data set. The list has three Hall of Famers who were certainly no slouches with the glove in Ozzie Smith, Ryne Sandberg, and Cal Ripken, as do highly-regarded defenders like Ozzie Guillen, Rey Ordonez, and Robin Ventura. Now we'll examine each of the four infield positions in a little more detail... Shortstops What's most interesting about the shortstops shown in Table 1 is that Ozzie Smith put up those seasons of around +25 runs at the relatively advanced ages of 34 and 35. Although I haven't run SFR for earlier seasons--for reasons explained in the introduction to this column--one wonders whether this represents a significant decline from his peak and, if so, what his peak would look like under this system. In any case, Table 2 shows the full data for the Wizard of Oz: Table 2. Ozzie Smith 1988-1996 Year Balls Runners Diff SFR Rate 1988 768 163 24 18.0 1.15 1989 709 143 33 24.6 1.23 1990 532 92 36 27.3 1.39 1991 638 183 -3 -2.5 0.98 1992 676 177 13 9.7 1.07 1993 692 167 9 6.7 1.05 1994 464 135 -9 -6.9 0.93 1995 178 44 7 5.0 1.15 1996 253 52 11 8.1 1.21 SFR records a decline immediately after that 1990 season, as he never topped +9.7 runs again in his final six seasons. Still, to be worth over 13 runs in less than a season's worth of play at ages 40 and 41 (1995 and 1996) is pretty special. You'll also notice in Table 2 that we've included a Rate in the final column that is simply calculated as the ratio of expected to actual baserunners for the chosen time period. Perhaps surprisingly, in 1995 and 1996 in limited playing time, Smith's rate was actually higher than it had been since 1990. Overall during this timeframe, Smith was +90 runs at shortstop, which places him second behind only Cal Ripken's +112. Since Ripken is the leader, it's worth taking a look at his numbers as well: Table 3. Cal Ripken at Shortstop 1988-1997 Year Balls Runners Diff SFR Rate 1988 673 155 5 4 1.03 1989 756 166 22 16 1.13 1990 643 137 18 13 1.13 1991 785 182 25 19 1.14 1992 688 178 17 13 1.09 1993 717 176 12 9 1.07 1994 459 105 20 15 1.19 1995 574 121 27 20 1.23 1996 666 168 4 3 1.02 1997 3 1 -1 0 0.35 One of the main differences in looking at Ripken versus Smith is that this timeframe covers Ripken's age-27 through age-36 seasons, so we might expect his values and his rates to be consistently a little higher. When Ripken moved to third base full time in 1997 he rated at +5.5 SFR / 1.08 Rate and performed equally well in 1998 at +8.7/1.15. Taken together, Ripken is by far the fielder who contributed the most runs over that time span at +127, with Mark Lemke second at +93, followed in turn by Smith. But these questions about rates leads directly to wondering which shortstops (and, by extension, fielders at other positions) rated the best and worst in terms of rate over this time period. Table 4 provides the answer for those shortstops who had 1,000 or more balls assigned to their area of responsibility, and it's not surprising that Ripken and Smith occupy two of the top four spots: Table 4. Top and Bottom Shortstops by Rate, >= 1,000 Balls 1988-1996 Name Span Balls Runners Diff SFR Rate Rey Sanchez 1991-1998 1723 388 74 55.1 1.19 Deivi Cruz 1997-1998 1184 299 36 27.0 1.12 Cal Ripken 1988-1997 5963 1389 149 111.6 1.11 Ozzie Smith 1988-1996 4911 1157 121 90.2 1.10 John Valentin 1992-1996 2361 561 58 43.6 1.10 Alan Trammell 1988-1996 3234 744 61 45.9 1.08 Greg Gagne 1988-1997 5777 1388 111 82.7 1.08 Jose Valentin 1993-1998 2513 619 45 33.7 1.07 Nomar Garciaparra 1996-1998 1336 334 24 18.1 1.07 Ozzie Guillen 1988-1998 5749 1349 97 72.1 1.07 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Edgar Renteria 1996-1998 1715 504 -38 -28.1 0.93 Andres Thomas 1988-1990 1674 439 -39 -29.5 0.91 Rafael Ramirez 1988-1992 2061 562 -51 -38.1 0.91 Jose Offerman 1990-1996 2597 775 -72 -54.3 0.91 Wil Cordero 1992-1995 1689 513 -48 -35.8 0.91 Chris Gomez 1993-1998 2620 792 -77 -57.7 0.90 Dale Sveum 1988-1997 1149 333 -34 -25.7 0.90 Andujar Cedeno 1990-1996 2391 762 -90 -67.3 0.88 Kurt Stillwell 1988-1996 2214 646 -82 -62.3 0.87 Ricky Gutierrez 1993-1998 2084 684 -104 -78.2 0.85 Although Rey Sanchez also played a significant amount at second base during this period (part-time in 1994 and 1997, and full-time in 1995 for the Cubs) covering his age-23 through -30 seasons, he ends up rating the highest of any shortstop at allowing 19 percent fewer runners to reach base than would have been expected. He rated especially well in 1992 (+16/1.38), 1996 (+13/1.20), and 1998 (+13/1.29). At second base Sanchez placed eleventh overall in Rate at 1.06 with 1,043 balls assigned to his area. Deivi Cruz takes second on the strength of just two seasons (1997 and 1998 with the Tigers) when he rated at +20/1.23 and +7/1.05. Special mention here should also be made of Craig Grebeck,who took the top spot overall in 1992 for the White Sox at +20.9 runs. From 1990 through 1998 he was at +32 runs and, if the threshold were lowered to 500 balls fielded, would rank second in Rate at 1.21, just slightly behind Mike Benjamin at 1.27. On the flip side, we find Ricky Gutierrez on the bottom of the heap at -78.2 runs and a rate 15 percent below average. Although he played a smattering of games at second and third for San Diego and Houston during this period, he was nothing if not consistent defensively, putting up SFR numbers of -8, -12, -17, -12, -10, and -19 in consecutive seasons. Many of the remaining names on the bottom of this list--perhaps with the exception of Edgar Renteria who, it should be remembered, is only represented in three of the overall sample's seasons--should come as no surprise to those who saw them play. It should also be mentioned here that Chris Gomez and Kurt Stillwell recorded the two lowest seasonal SFR totals at shortstop for a single team, with Gomez at -25.8 in 1997, and Stillwell at -24.2 in 1991. No doubt I'll field some questions this week about Derek Jeter if I don't show his numbers as well, so Table 5 includes his 1995 through 1998 seasons: Table 5. Derek Jeter 1995-1998 Year Balls Runners Diff SFR Rate 1995 61 19 -3 -1.9 0.86 1996 704 191 -9 -6.9 0.95 1997 702 213 -30 -22.4 0.86 1998 589 158 9 6.7 1.06 With a good rating in 1998 he comes out at only -25 runs during the time period. Second Base Moving on, Table 6 lists the top and bottom second basemen in terms of Rate, once again looking only at those fielders who've been assigned 1,000 or more balls. Table 6. Top and Bottom Second basemen by Rate, >= 1,000 Balls 1988-1996 Name Span Balls Runners Diff SFR Rate Mike Gallego 1988-1997 1936 393 65 48.3 1.17 Jose Oquendo 1988-1995 2318 464 72 53.9 1.16 Mark Lemke 1988-1998 3576 780 118 87.6 1.15 Tony Phillips 1988-1997 1330 268 37 27.2 1.14 Manuel Lee 1988-1995 1001 184 21 15.7 1.11 Scott Fletcher 1989-1995 2516 527 58 42.6 1.11 Lou Whitaker 1988-1995 3494 760 60 44.8 1.08 Ryne Sandberg 1988-1997 5207 1199 83 61.8 1.07 Luis Alicea 1988-1998 2612 591 38 27.8 1.06 Jim Gantner 1988-1992 1941 410 25 19.1 1.06 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Jeff Frye 1992-1997 1655 431 -26 -19.7 0.94 Ray Durham 1995-1998 2310 602 -45 -33.4 0.92 Mariano Duncan 1989-1997 2110 549 -50 -37.2 0.91 Tony Womack 1994-1998 1277 372 -34 -25.6 0.91 Terry Shumpert 1990-1998 1046 293 -28 -21.4 0.90 Nelson Liriano 1988-1998 1867 474 -47 -35.5 0.90 Juan Samuel 1988-1998 2160 574 -61 -46.0 0.89 Joey Cora 1989-1998 3313 888 -102 -76.7 0.89 Carlos Garcia 1992-1998 2076 568 -71 -53.0 0.87 Gregg Jefferies 1988-1993 1230 326 -51 -38.3 0.84 Mike Gallego and Jose Oquendo take the top two spots at second base, but Mark Lemke logged much more time there, and did almost equally as well from a rate perspective, topping the charts with a SFR of +87.6 runs. Interestingly, his career line shown in Table 7 reveals no apparent age-related decline from ages 22 through 32. Table 7. Mark Lemke at Second Base 1988-1998 Year Team Balls Runners Diff SFR Rate 1988 ATL 80 17 -1 -0.9 0.93 1989 ATL 56 12 1 0.7 1.09 1990 ATL 161 28 8 5.5 1.27 1991 ATL 306 67 10 7.2 1.14 1992 ATL 530 152 7 5.4 1.05 1993 ATL 571 114 24 17.5 1.21 1994 ATL 412 90 12 9.1 1.14 1995 ATL 429 88 12 8.8 1.13 1996 ATL 533 111 24 18.0 1.22 1997 ATL 415 90 13 9.7 1.14 1998 BOS 84 12 9 6.6 1.73 Perhaps fittingly, Ryne Sandberg and Lou Whitaker are virtually tied, with Whitaker edging Sandberg in Rate, but Sandberg played significantly more, resulting in 17 additional runs saved. Whitaker had his best season in this period in 1990, putting up a +20/1.35, while Sandberg had two seasons of approximately +20 runs, at +20/1.16 in 1991 and then +21/1.16 in 1992, which ranked second and fifth in the single-season leaders. However, the top single season by a second baseman goes to Jose Oquendo, who recorded an SFR of +23.8 in 1990 for the Cardinals. Readers will no doubt recall that Greg Jefferies was moved around a bit in an effort to hide his glove, thereby logging significant time at both third and first base as well as in the outfield. He did his damage at second base putting up -16/0.81, -14/0.85, and -7/0.89 from 1989 through 1991 at ages 21 through 23. Although Carlos Garcia rated more poorly, Joey Cora logged the most time at second base of any of the bottom ten. He racked up a significant percentage of his -76.7 total runs (most for a second baseman) with four consecutive consistently poor showings from 1995 through 1998 after being acquired by Seattle. In those years--which were his age-30 through -33 seasons--he rated at -19/0.80, -16/0.84, -18/0.83, and -17/0.83. The lowest single season total by a large margin belongs to Tony Womack, who put up a -29.2 in 1997 for the Pirates. The next-closest competitor is Todd Walker's -24.3 in 1998 for the Twins. Third Base As we move to the hot corner, consider Table 8, which lists the top and bottom third basemen, once again in terms of Rate. Table 8. Top and Bottom Third basemen by Rate, >= 1,000 Balls 1988-1996 Name Span Balls Runners Diff SFR Rate Edgardo Alfonzo 1995-1998 1018 187 35 27.7 1.19 Scott Brosius 1991-1998 1533 282 49 38.1 1.17 Matt Williams 1988-1998 3757 678 97 74.9 1.14 Robin Ventura 1989-1998 3660 676 85 66.5 1.13 Gary Gaetti 1988-1998 3825 727 90 70.4 1.12 Brook Jacoby 1988-1992 1526 286 30 23.4 1.10 Chris Sabo 1988-1996 2287 440 44 34.6 1.10 Tim Wallach 1988-1996 3368 633 61 47.2 1.10 Scott Cooper 1991-1997 1366 284 27 21.0 1.09 Wade Boggs 1988-1998 3680 698 65 51.3 1.09 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Sean Berry 1990-1998 1688 401 -24 -18.1 0.94 Bobby Bonilla 1988-1998 2619 585 -35 -27.5 0.94 Dave Magadan 1988-1998 1307 303 -19 -14.5 0.94 Leo Gomez 1990-1996 1619 374 -30 -24.1 0.92 Mike Blowers 1989-1998 1534 368 -35 -27.1 0.91 Todd Zeile 1990-1998 3282 803 -76 -60.4 0.90 Dean Palmer 1989-1998 2491 623 -67 -52.4 0.89 Gary Sheffield 1989-1993 1458 357 -40 -31.8 0.89 Howard Johnson 1988-1995 1396 338 -44 -34.3 0.87 Jim Presley 1988-1991 1121 266 -41 -31.9 0.85 During this time period, Edgardo Alfonzo and Scott Brosius both did very well from a rate perspective, but a trio of third sackers--Matt Williams, Robin Ventura, and Gary Gaetti--played significantly more often, and each saved their teams roughly 70 runs over those years. Of those three, Williams stands a little above the others in both rate and total SFR; we can see in his career line that SFR recorded only one sub-par season (1996, his final year with the Giants) out of those eleven. Once again, there is no age-related decline to speak of. Table 9. Matt Williams at Third Base 1988-1998 Year Team Balls Runners Diff SFR Rate 1988 SFN 135 21 4 3.2 1.20 1989 SFN 206 23 15 11.9 1.65 1990 SFN 483 74 18 14.4 1.25 1991 SFN 488 94 2 1.5 1.03 1992 SFN 444 83 7 5.6 1.09 1993 SFN 429 87 6 4.6 1.07 1994 SFN 357 65 16 12.1 1.24 1995 SFN 274 55 5 3.6 1.08 1996 SFN 296 66 -5 -3.5 0.93 1997 CLE 442 76 18 13.9 1.23 1998 ARI 202 33 10 7.6 1.29 While Williams' rates were consistently higher (outside of 1996) Ventura recorded two of the top seven SFR seasons during this period, with his +16 in 1992 and a +22 in 1998 at the age of 30. Ventura also ranked above average in each of his ten seasons at third base while Gary Gaetti did so in ten of eleven seasons. Honorable mention goes to Chris Sabo, whose 1988 SFR of +24.3 with the Reds was the single highest total for a third baseman for a single team, with Terry Pendleton's +23 in 1989 for the Cardinals a close second. Gaetti, Ken Caminiti, and especially Tim Wallach were all particularly good at fielding bunts, with respective SFR totals and opportunities of +11/178, +12/194, and +14/166. On the other side of the coin, Dave Magadan (-8/61), Jim Thome (-7/67, before being shifted permanently to first base in 1997), and Kevin Seitzer (-7/80) were... not so good. At the bottom of the stack we find a collection of notably poor defenders, including a young Gary Sheffield who was tried at third by the Brewers, Padres, and Marlins after recording a collective -14/0.84 at shortstop for the Brewers in 1988 and 1989 at the tender ages of 19 and 20. In terms of total runs, Todd Zeile is our "winner" at -60.4, who managed to record subpar SFR totals and rates in all eleven seasons. He was particularly poor on bunts, recording an SFR of -9 in 157 opportunities--the lowest total among third baseman. His work at catcher and first base drops his overall total to -65 runs and, when combined with his baserunning efforts (an EqBRR of -38), during this time period he cost his teams on the order of 100 runs in these "secondary" skills. Although Zeile's -15.2/0.86 performance for the Cardinals in 1993 was among the poorest showings by a third baseman during this period, it was Russ Davis playing for Seattle in 1998 who almost lapped the field, recording an SFR of -25.8 and a Rate of 0.73. The next closest competitor was Howard Johnson at -16.4 in 1989 for the Mets. First Base Finally, we'll wrap up with a look at first basemen, as shown in Table 10. Table 10. Top and Bottom First Basemen by Rate, >= 1,000 Balls 1988-1996 Name Span Balls Runners Diff SFR Rate John Olerud 1989-1998 2433 295 73 58.7 1.25 Sid Bream 1988-1994 1163 122 25 19.3 1.20 Jeff King 1989-1998 1072 142 27 20.7 1.19 Rafael Palmeiro 1988-1998 3299 440 63 49.4 1.14 Pete O'Brien 1988-1993 1369 161 23 18.1 1.14 Mark Grace 1988-1998 4122 528 73 57.0 1.14 Ricky Jordan 1988-1996 1167 134 15 12.0 1.11 Glenn Davis 1988-1993 1101 135 11 8.2 1.08 Wally Joyner 1988-1998 3132 432 34 26.3 1.08 Jeff Bagwell 1991-1998 2644 376 29 22.7 1.08 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Randy Milligan 1988-1994 1221 177 -6 -5.2 0.97 Fred McGriff 1988-1998 3158 470 -17 -12.4 0.96 Will Clark 1988-1998 3537 521 -23 -19.0 0.96 J.T. Snow 1992-1998 1499 228 -11 -7.7 0.95 Rico Brogna 1992-1998 1126 186 -10 -7.9 0.95 David Segui 1990-1998 1712 287 -23 -17.7 0.92 Cecil Fielder 1988-1998 1771 290 -26 -20.3 0.91 Paul Sorrento 1989-1998 1617 266 -27 -22.0 0.90 Frank Thomas 1990-1998 1694 294 -40 -31.1 0.87 Pedro Guerrero 1988-1992 1033 170 -28 -21.8 0.84 Keep in mind that SFR does not include a key component of first base defense--fielding throws from other infielders. Even so, notable scoop artist John Olerud comes out well on top, at +58.7 runs and a rate of 1.25, and scoring positively in every season from 1991 through 1998. His top season came in 1998 at the age of 29, when he was with the Mets and recorded a +17/1.50. Both Rafael Palmeiro and Mark Grace played more, as did Wally Joyner and even Jeff Bagwell. Grace's seasonal totals are shown in Table 11: Table 11. Mark Grace at First Base 1988-1998 Year Team Balls Runners Diff SFR Rate 1988 CHN 300 45 -7 -5.2 0.85 1989 CHN 396 53 2 1.2 1.03 1990 CHN 468 59 3 2.3 1.05 1991 CHN 489 59 12 9.4 1.20 1992 CHN 451 45 21 16.9 1.47 1993 CHN 370 42 10 7.9 1.24 1994 CHN 247 37 3 2.2 1.08 1995 CHN 322 43 5 3.6 1.10 1996 CHN 341 37 11 8.4 1.29 1997 CHN 367 41 12 9.7 1.30 1998 CHN 369 66 1 0.7 1.01 Both Grace and Olerud capture three of the top ten seasonal totals during the time period, with Olerud's 1998 season topping the charts, followed by Grace in 1992. One of the seemingly clear differences between Olerud and Grace is that Grace performed much better on bunts, recording a total SFR of +8 runs in 280 opportunities, far outdistancing Andres Galarraga (+4/192) and Jeff Bagwell (+4/223). Meanwhile Olerud recorded just +1 runs in 102 opportunities. Pedro Guerrero, playing for the both the Dodgers and Cardinals, recorded the lowest rate: just 0.84 in 1,033 opportunities at first base. Interestingly, he still ranked last despite a healthy positive contribution on bunts at +4 runs in 57 opportunities. When you also consider his 1988 experience at third for the Dodgers--where he recorded a -9/0.65--his total in the infield drops to -32 runs. Will Clark and Fred McGriff logged the most time at first base and Clark recorded the single lowest SFR total at first in 1998 with the Rangers at -15.2/0.77. In perusing this table, one might be surprised (like I was) that J.T. Snow appears on the bottom, since he developed a good defensive reputation over the years. In fact, SFR overall doesn't like him very much, recording negative values in six of the eleven seasons on which it has data (1992-1998 and 2003-2006) with a whopping -10 in 1995. In only one season is his SFR above 5, when it was +5.6 in 1998.
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