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February 18, 2008 You Could Look It UpTopping the Twins, Part Deux
This week we conclude our Johan Santana-inspired look at Cy Young winners traded less than two seasons after winning their award, all part of placing the Santana trade in some kind of context. After last week's installment, I received a note from a reader (I seem to have misplaced it, so apologies, sir, for not recognizing you by name), saying that these trade capsules really ought to indicate if the Cy Young-er being dealt was felt to have the same kind of value that Santana does. It's a good point, and we'll endeavor to make note of that this time around. Once again, we're indulging in a speculative exercise here, one which has the benefit of hindsight in the case of the older trades, and the conceit of foresight in that of the Santana trade, a deal that has already been rated a loser for the Twins by many critics.
Cy Young going: 1977 AL winner Sparky Lyle, from the Yankees to the Rangers. Right off the bat we have a test of whether the Cy Young being dealt had the same kind of cachet that Santana does. The answer here must be an unequivocal no. First, as is typically the case when relievers win the Cy Young award, although Lyle was quite good in 1977, he won the award only because the voters had to think a bit and couldn't agree on a candidate. He received nine first-place votes, but 19 other voters preferred someone else, with six first-place votes going to Jim Palmer, six going to Nolan Ryan, five going to Dennis Leonard, and one apiece going to Bill Campbell and Dave Goltz. Palmer was clearly the class of the league that year, but he already had three trophies in his pocket and was openly lobbying for a fourth. This apparently turned off some voters. Here is how BP's stats reflect on the candidates: Name Team G GS IP H9 BB9 SO9 HR9 ERA RA+ VORP SNLVAR/WXRL Jim Palmer BAL 39 39 319 7.4 2.8 5.5 0.7 2.91 1.48 88.7 9.8 Frank Tanana CAL 31 31 241.1 7.5 2.3 7.7 0.7 2.54 1.67 76.6 8.1 Nolan Ryan CAL 37 37 299 6.0 6.1 10.3 0.4 2.77 1.35 73.1 7.9 Bert Blyleven TEX 30 30 234.2 6.9 2.7 7.0 0.8 2.72 1.47 64.5 7.2 Dennis Leonard KCA 38 37 292.2 7.6 2.4 7.5 0.6 3.04 1.26 64.3 7.3 Dave Goltz MIN 39 39 303 8.4 2.7 5.5 0.7 3.36 1.18 57.9 6.7 Ron Guidry NYA 31 25 210.2 7.4 2.8 7.5 0.5 2.82 1.46 57.6 6.1 D. Eckersley CLE 33 33 247.1 7.8 2.0 7.0 1.1 3.53 1.25 52.9 5.9 Sparky Lyle NYA 72 0 137 8.6 2.2 4.5 0.5 2.17 1.67 41.9 5.1 Bill Campbell BOS 69 0 140 7.2 3.9 7.3 0.8 2.96 1.56 39.7 6.5
Whoops. When the calendar rolled over to 1978, Lyle's luster faded. The Yankees signed Goose Gossage before the season, making Lyle a middle man, a role in which he was neither happy nor particularly effective. Meanwhile, the 1977-1978 Rangers had one of the best starting rotations in team history, but they lacked a bullpen, so Lyle was a logical target. Still, they were doing the Yankees a favor in taking a disgruntled star off of their hands. As Graig Nettles memorably remarked at the time of the trade, Lyle "went from Cy Young to sayonara." ---
Cy Young going: 1972 AL and 1978 NL winner Gaylord Perry, from the Padres to the Rangers.
Spitball master Perry was 750 in baseball years when the Padres dealt him, which marks this as a significantly different proposition than the Santana swap. Though an All-Star in 1979, Perry was probably devalued a bit because his won-lost record slipped from 21-6 to 12-11, though in qualitative terms he was roughly the same pitcher-he was good but not great in both seasons. ---
Cy Young going: Bruce Sutter, 1979 NL winner, from the Cubs to the Cardinals.
It's a shock that the much-derided Durham, who was a good hitter with defensive problems on the field, and personal problems off of it, more or less offsets Sutter in this deal. That's because as good as Sutter was as a Cardinal, he wasn't quite the pitcher the Cubs had given up. Sutter pitched an even 300 games as a Cub, striking out 494 batters in 493 1/3 innings. He was still very effective as a Cardinal, particularly in 1984, when he saved a then-astounding 45 games for a 7.72 WXRL, leading the National League, a season just slightly better than his best with the Cubs in 1977 (7.56 WXRL). Still, he was more of a contact pitcher, as his strikeouts fell off to 259 in 396 2/3 innings, or 5.9 per nine. Despite this, the Cardinals did get comparable value. In relief seasons of more than 100 innings, Sutter's 1984 Fair RA of 1.69 ranks as the 11th-best of all time, while his single-season peak in FRA in 1977 (1.64) is ninth overall. ---
Cy Young going: La Marr Hoyt, 1983 AL winner, from the White Sox to the Padres. If Hoyt's value was anything like Santana's, the Padres were taking harder drugs than Hoyt was. The voters had at least a half-dozen choices that were better. Hoyt outpolled Dan Quisenberry 116-81; Jack Morris, who was also very good, came in third, while Dave Stieb, who was better than either of them, didn't get a vote. Here's how BP's stats see it: Name Team G GS IP H9 BB9 SO9 HR9 ERA RA+ VORP SNLVAR/WXRL Dave Stieb TOR 36 36 278 7.2 3.0 6.1 0.7 3.04 1.37 68.9 7.2 Jack Morris DET 37 37 293.2 7.9 2.5 7.1 0.9 3.34 1.24 61.4 6.4 Scott McGregor BAL 36 36 260 9.4 1.6 3.0 0.8 3.18 1.28 58.0 6.5 Charlie Hough TEX 34 33 252 7.8 3.4 5.4 0.8 3.18 1.31 57.9 6.1 Richard Dotson CHA 35 35 240 7.8 4.0 5.1 0.7 3.23 1.34 57.2 6.4 Ron Guidry NYA 31 31 250.1 8.3 2.2 5.6 0.9 3.42 1.25 52.9 5.6 Dan Quisenberry KCA 69 0 139 7.6 0.7 3.1 0.4 1.94 1.99 48.5 7.1 Rick Honeycutt TEX 25 25 174.2 8.7 1.9 2.9 0.5 2.42 1.49 48.5 6.0 La Marr Hoyt CHA 36 36 260.2 8.2 1.1 5.1 0.9 3.63 1.16 47.7 5.5
Even if the Padres weren't aware of Hoyt's drug problem at the time of the deal, they should have been a bit nervous about the stocky guy with the high homer rate and declining strikeout numbers. In the end, it's difficult to say which undid Hoyt first, the drugs or a bad shoulder. The former ended his term with the Padres, while the latter, combined with a 1988 prison sentence for drug possession, ended his career. ---
Cy Young going: Steve Bedrosian, 1987 NL Winner, from the Phillies to the Giants. Once again, the voters couldn't get together on a starter, so a reliever won it. Nine first-place votes went to Bedrock, but Rick Sutcliffe, Rick Reuschel, Orel Hershiser, and Dwight Gooden split the 15 other votes, making the final tally one of the closest ever, with the closer edging Sutcliffe and Reuschel 57-55-54. Once again, let's see if we're really talking about a legit Cy Young, or a guy who just happened to win the award in a tight ballot: Name Team G GS IP H9 BB9 SO9 HR9 ERA RA+ VORP SNLVAR/WXRL Bob Welch LAN 35 35 251.2 7.3 3.1 7.0 0.8 3.22 1.33 60.3 8.2 Mike Scott HOU 36 36 247.2 7.2 2.9 8.5 0.8 3.23 1.31 57.6 8.2 Orel Hershiser LAN 37 35 264.2 8.4 2.5 6.5 0.6 3.06 1.25 57.0 7.5 Nolan Ryan HOU 34 34 211.2 6.6 3.7 11.5 0.6 2.76 1.40 54.4 7.4 Rick Reuschel PIT 25 25 177 8.3 1.8 4.1 0.6 2.75 1.43 47.0 5.7 Rick Sutcliffe CHN 34 34 237.1 8.5 4.0 6.6 0.9 3.68 1.17 44.2 5.5 Dwight Gooden NYN 25 25 179.2 8.1 2.7 7.4 0.6 3.21 1.29 40.9 5.6 Tim Burke MON 55 0 91 6.3 1.7 5.7 0.3 1.19 2.59 37.4 6.2 Greg Mathews SLN 32 32 197.2 8.4 3.2 4.9 0.8 3.73 1.15 35.7 5.4 Steve Bedrosian PHI 65 0 89 8.0 2.8 7.5 1.1 2.83 1.48 23.5 5.8 As a teenaged stathead, I used to get into near brawls with my schoolmates over Nolan Ryan's Cy Young candidacy. Ryan led the NL in strikeouts and ERA, which in my opinion transcended his 8-16 won-lost record. The Astros, after all, didn't hit. Unfortunately, your average playground adolescent hadn't heard of run support, so I needed to keep a goodly supply of tissues on hand to soak up the bloody noses.
Bedrosian helped the Giants get to the 1989 World Series, but he hung around the Barbary Coast for only one more mediocre season before departing as a free agent. Meanwhile, the Phillies received three players who hung around for years, though none of them was particularly good. ---
Cy Young going: Frank Viola, 1988 AL winner, from the Twins to the Mets. Sound familiar?
This may be the best comp for the Santana trade. In both cases, the Twins swapped their southpaw ace to the Mets for a bundle of players. Viola was just 29 and his 1987-88 ERA was 2.77. In this case the Twins did very well, thanks to the long-term value of Tapani and Aguilera. One key difference is that Aguilera was already a five-year veteran. Though he'd had some arm problems and resultant inconsistency, the Twins had a reasonable certainty that they were getting something out of the deal; in contrast, the more recent trade is far more speculative. Fortunately, they rolled up sevens on Tapani as well, and the deal paid off in contributing significantly to the Twins' 1991 championship. The Mets got something out of the deal as well, a 10.0 WARP season from Viola in 1990. Unfortunately, that wasn't enough to avert the decline of the team, and Viola was allowed to leave as a free agent after the 1991 season. On to the lighting round...
Cy Young going: Jack McDowell, 1993 AL winner, from the White Sox to the Yankees.
The White Sox were dealing a player in his option year who had been subject to a very heavy workload. He was well-regarded, but wasn't Santana.
Cy Young going: David Cone, 1994 AL Winner, from the Royals to the Blue Jays.
Less than two years after the death of Ewing Kauffman, the Royals woke up one morning and realized that they were a small-market franchise. They quickly divested themselves of Cone, a highly coveted pitcher who bordered on the Santana class at times.
Cy Young going: 1998 AL winner Roger Clemens, from the Blue Jays to the Yankees
Nobody died, but one day the Blue Jays woke up and decided that they were a small-market franchise (Toronto population: 2.5 million). They quickly divested themselves of the Rocket, juiced or virgin.
Steven Goldman is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 0 comments have been left for this article.
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