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July 12, 2007 Schrodinger's BatDropping One Down
"He just pointed at the ball. That's all he could do." --- There are times when the fan in you simply has to marvel at what you see on the field. This season, watching the Rockies as regularly as I do, I've been somewhat amazed by the bunting exploits of center fielder Willy Taveras. After his acquisition by the Rockies from the Astros (along with Jason Hirsh) in the Jason Jennings trade this past offseason, I had assumed that he would help shore up the outfield defense in the vast spaces of Coors Field. However, I was not prepared for how often nor how well he bunts for hits. It seems that he can drop one down the third base line at any time against any infield configuration, and the vast majority of the time, beats the throw to first. At the All-Star break he'd already recorded 27 bunt hits among his 40 infield hits, already breaking the previous Rockies record held by Juan Pierre (24) in 2002. This was despite his having to battle nagging injuries, including a groin injury in early May that sidelined him for almost a week, and then being hit on the right index finger while attempting to bunt on May 28th, and a right quadriceps injury that caused him to sit out of the starting lineup in three of the last five games before the break. Oh, and he says he's still not adjusted to altitude. All of this got me wondering how his success rate and 27 bunt hits stacks up against performances of the past 40 years. From there we can delve into other topics, including the circumstances where bunting for hits normally occur, as well as their value and strategic implications. The Historical Context Before we navigate the deeper waters, let's take a quick look at the leaders in terms of bunt hit attempts for 2007:
Name Bunts Hits Pct Willy Taveras 36 27 .750 Juan Pierre 28 8 .286 Corey Patterson 14 6 .429 Gerald Laird 14 7 .500 Coco Crisp 12 4 .333 Jose Reyes 12 7 .583 Joey Gathright 11 6 .545 Carlos Gomez 11 6 .545 Alfredo Amezaga 10 6 .600 Tony Gwynn 10 4 .400 Reggie Willits 10 4 .400 This list comprises all those who have been charged with 10 or more at-bats while bunting this season, thereby excluding all successful sacrifices and most sacrifice attempts. This measure, however, still includes plays where a lead runner is forced out, and so is not "pure" in the sense of recording only attempts where the batter's intent was only to get a hit. In addition, there are attempts included where the batter attempted to sacrifice but ended up being credited with a hit. We'll have to live with these ambiguities, because if we exclude attempts with runners on, we'll also miss plays on which the batter was credited with a hit when the intent was to do so. However, bunts that result in force outs and attempted sacrifices that go for hits are both reflective of bunting ability, and should cancel each other out to some degree, so I've decided to include both in what follows. It should be noted that this calculation differs from that used on FanGraphs, where bunt hit percentage (BUH%) is calculated with all attempted bunts (even those on which a sacrifice was credited) in the denominator. Not only has Taveras more than tripled the output of any other player, he has been successful an amazing 75 percent of the time, as opposed to 50-60 percent success rates for bunters as different from one another as Gerald Laird (7 for 14) and Jose Reyes (7 for 12). Overall, there have been 729 attempts in 2007, with 293 successes, good for a rate of 40.2 percent. At first glance, it would seem that with such a high success rate more players should bunt for hits. However, it should be remembered that success is predicated on both skill with the bunt itself, and some measure of running speed, a combination that not many players possess. In addition, when a player decides to bunt, barring an error, he forfeits the opportunity to advance runners more than one base, or put himself into scoring position, or even drive himself in with a home run. Along with the interplay that occurs with the defense, these reasons combine to make the bunt hit attempt a relatively infrequent occurrence, albeit one of the most exciting plays in baseball. To get a sense of where Taveras' performance fits in historically, let's take a look at the single-season leaders in bunt hits stretching back to 1959.
Year Name Bunts Hits Pct 1992 Brett Butler 67 40 .597 1992 Kenny Lofton 67 31 .463 2003 Alex Sanchez 64 31 .484 2005 Willy Taveras 59 30 .508 2003 Juan Pierre 70 29 .414 2004 Alex Sanchez 58 29 .500 2007 Willy Taveras 36 27 .750 2005 Juan Pierre 59 25 .424 2002 Juan Pierre 52 24 .462 1971 Del Unser 36 23 .639 1979 Frank Taveras 28 23 .821 1991 Otis Nixon 50 23 .460 1990 Brett Butler 45 22 .489 1969 Bobby Tolan 34 21 .618 1980 Frank Taveras 24 21 .875 1991 Brett Butler 43 21 .488 1993 Brett Butler 49 21 .429 1995 Otis Nixon 34 21 .618 2006 Willy Taveras 38 21 .553 1964 Maury Wills 43 20 .465 1964 Don Blasingame 23 20 .870 1965 Maury Wills 34 20 .588 1979 Paul Molitor 34 20 .588 1989 Brett Butler 38 20 .526 1997 Otis Nixon 35 20 .571 1998 Neifi Perez 34 20 .588 2004 Juan Pierre 46 20 .435 Included in the list are all those players with 20 or more bunt hits. Only six times has a player accumulated more than 27 bunt hits in a season, and Taveras was one of those, racking up 30 in 2005 (he also had 21 in 38 attempts in 2006, for a success rate of 55.3 percent). Given that Brett Butler had "just" 40 in 1992 while playing for the Braves, there's a very good chance that Taveras will best that mark this year, putting those two well ahead of the pack. The single-season percentage leaders (with 20 or more attempts) are:
Year Name Bunts Hits Pct 1961 Jim Piersall 20 18 .900 1980 Frank Taveras 24 21 .875 1964 Don Blasingame 23 20 .870 1967 Matty Alou 23 19 .826 1979 Frank Taveras 28 23 .821 1980 Dwayne Murphy 20 16 .800 2000 Eric Young 20 16 .800 1999 Roberto Alomar 22 17 .773 2007 Willy Taveras 36 27 .750 1966 Matty Alou 24 18 .750 1959 Tony Taylor 20 15 .750 1996 Kenny Lofton 23 17 .739 2000 Luis Castillo 20 14 .700 2002 Tony Womack 20 14 .700 1978 Bump Wills 22 15 .682 It's unlikely Taveras will be able to eclipse the leaders in this list, but his current pace would keep him in the top 10 and ranking among the best seasons since 1959. Looking at these guys, however, does bring to mind the question of whether the success rate of bunting for hits has changed over time. Was it in fact easier to bunt for hits in the past? The following graph shows the success rate by year and from it, it is difficult to conclude that bunting for hits was much easier in the past. While there is a downward trend to the data overall, the success rate in the period 1993-2002 approximated that from 1968-1986.
While we're here we might as well take a moment to reflect on those players who were not as successful at bunting for base hits:
Year Name Bunts Hits Pct 1986 Harold Reynolds 20 3 .150 2002 Fernando Vina 31 6 .194 1989 Otis Nixon 24 5 .208 1987 Alfredo Griffin 23 5 .217 2002 Timo Perez 22 5 .227 2004 Dave Roberts 35 8 .229 1986 Ozzie Guillen 26 6 .231 1993 Darren Lewis 21 5 .238 1990 Steve Finley 25 6 .240 1989 Nelson Liriano 28 7 .250 2006 Scott Podsednik 20 5 .250 2006 Chone Figgins 20 5 .250 1963 Lou Brock 26 7 .269 1988 Oddibe McDowell 22 6 .273 1995 Quilvio Veras 21 6 .286 Suffice it to say in these seasons these players might have been better served by simply swinging away. Nw we can total these up for the period 1959-2007 and build the following leader boards:
Most Attempts Most Hits Name Bunts Hits Pct Name Bunts Hits Pct Brett Butler 442 226 .511 Brett Butler 442 226 .511 Otis Nixon 344 158 .459 Kenny Lofton 297 175 .589 Juan Pierre 335 140 .418 Otis Nixon 344 158 .459 Maury Wills 307 149 .485 Rod Carew 190 151 .795 Kenny Lofton 297 175 .589 Maury Wills 307 149 .485 Alfredo Griffin 222 84 .378 Juan Pierre 335 140 .418 Omar Vizquel 213 127 .596 Matty Alou 211 133 .630 Roberto Alomar 213 126 .592 Omar Vizquel 213 127 .596 Matty Alou 211 133 .630 Roberto Alomar 213 126 .592 Larry Bowa 211 103 .488 Paul Molitor 179 107 .598 Highest Success Rate (50+ attempts) Lowest Success Rate (50+ attempts) Name Bunts Hits Pct Name Bunts Hits Pct Steve Garvey 75 62 .827 Pat Listach 57 15 .263 Lee Mazzilli 51 41 .804 Nelson Liriano 63 18 .286 Rod Carew 190 151 .795 Rick Miller 67 21 .313 Dave Hollins 50 38 .760 Darren Lewis 140 44 .314 Manny Mota 55 40 .727 Tommy Davis 56 18 .321 Rob Wilfong 87 63 .724 Chone Figgins 77 25 .325 Don Blasingame 93 67 .720 Joey Gathright 61 20 .328 Mickey Rivers 87 61 .701 Brian McRae 146 49 .336 Jose Valentin 78 53 .679 Cookie Rojas 68 23 .338 Jeff Cirillo 61 41 .672 Ozzie Guillen 127 43 .339 One of the things that is interesting about these lists is that the career leaders in success percentage include several players who you wouldn't expect to be there. Steve Garvey, Dave Hollins, Jose Valentin, and Jeff Cirillo seem particularly out of place, but it should be remembered that these players had relatively few attempts, so they likely caught the defense napping on many or most of their attempts. The fact that Rod Carew still ranks third with 190 attempts testifies to his superior bunting ability, and allows us to award him the crown of "Best Bunter of the Past 40 (or so) Years." The average success rate for the 208 players with 50 or more career attempts since 1959 is exactly 50 percent. In one sense you would expect these players to have higher success rates, since one of the reasons they're employing the tactic more frequently is their history of success. On the other hand, if defenses know that particular players bunt for hits relatively often, they should adjust accordingly, and thereby drive down the success rate. At this point Taveras ranks 41st on the success rate list, going 78 for 133 for a .586 success rate, so his success this season is definitely a change from his first two years. Whether his success this season reflects a new skill level or simply a bit of luck is unknown, so it'll be interesting to see whether he can continue having this sort of success, or whether he'll drop back down to his historical norm. Considering only active players, he ranks eighth, as shown in the following table:
Name Bunts Hits Pct Jeff Cirillo 61 41 .672 Derek Jeter 56 37 .661 Ichiro Suzuki 65 42 .646 Jason Tyner 59 37 .627 Melvin Mora 109 67 .615 Omar Vizquel 213 127 .596 Kenny Lofton 297 175 .589 Willy Taveras 133 78 .586 Mark Loretta 53 31 .585 Edgar Renteria 67 38 .567 Adam Kennedy 52 29 .558 Julio Lugo 84 45 .536 Craig Biggio 154 82 .532 Craig Counsell 64 34 .531 Johnny Damon 101 53 .525 Randy Winn 63 33 .524 Jacque Jones 52 27 .519 David Eckstein 72 37 .514 Corey Patterson 127 64 .504 Marlon Anderson 60 30 .500 Luis Castillo 143 71 .497 Royce Clayton 100 49 .490 Neifi Perez 191 93 .487 Cristian Guzman 98 47 .480 Endy Chavez 82 39 .476 Jose Reyes 73 34 .466 Coco Crisp 82 37 .451 Jack Wilson 85 38 .447 Mike Cameron 50 22 .440 Rafael Furcal 183 78 .426 Juan Pierre 335 140 .418 Scott Podsednik 104 43 .413 Ray Durham 88 36 .409 Jimmy Rollins 74 29 .392 Timo Perez 54 21 .389 Nook Logan 62 24 .387 Willie Harris 50 19 .380 Dave Roberts 187 71 .380 Cesar Izturis 54 20 .370 Curtis Wilkerson 51 18 .353 Joey Gathright 61 20 .328 Chone Figgins 77 25 .325 The Strategic Context To examine the situational and strategic context in which bunting for hits occurs, I took a look at a subset of the data-the years 1970 through 2006. Let's take a quick look at the data, sliced in various ways:
End Game As we've hinted at, there are a couple additional aspects of bunting for hits that should be considered. Particularly, we haven't addressed the question of what conditions would be appropriate for different players to try and lay down a bunt and beat it out. Alas, that topic is a little more involved, so we'll have to save it for another day.
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