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April 1, 2007 Preseason Predictions2007 Staff Picks, American LeagueIndex: Voting Results | Individual BallotsOur annual predictions arrive this year as our Hope and Faith series comes to an end. While the beauty of spring training is that every team can think it has a chance, somebody has to take the losses. For today, we concentrate on the division standings and the major player awards (MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year) in the American League. Tomorrow we'll conclude with the National League predictions, along with the staff picks for the World Series. Each author's division standings predictions may be found later in the article. Here, we present a wisdom-of-the-crowds summary of the results. In each table you'll find the average rank of each team in their division, plus the results of our preseason MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year voting. A slight shift at the bottom of the AL East rankings, a rising favorite in the AL Central, and anarchy in the AL West highlight our staff's guesses. AL EAST Team Average New York Yankees 1.5 Boston Red Sox 1.6 Toronto Blue Jays 3.3 Tampa Bay Devil Rays 3.9 Baltimore Orioles 4.7 AL CENTRAL Team Average Cleveland Indians 1.3 Detroit Tigers 2.4 Minnesota Twins 2.8 Chicago White Sox 3.5 Kansas City Royals 5 AL WEST Team Average Los Angeles Angels 1.5 Oakland Athletics 2.3 Texas Rangers 2.6 Seattle Mariners 3.5 Individual Awards: For the MVP voting, we've slightly amended the traditional points system in place that's been used elsewhere, dropping fourth and five place votes to make it 10-7-5 for the MVP Award, and the regular 5-3-1 for the Cy Young and Rookie of the Year Awards (that's 5 points for a first place vote, 3 for a second place vote, etc). Next to each selection we've listed the (1) total number of ballots followed by the (2) total number of points, followed by (3) the number of first place votes in parentheses, if any were received. AL MVP
AL Cy Young
AL ROY
As you'll see below, we've added a few other matters of import for our experts to weigh in on. Each BPer has cited a matchup he is looking forward to as a Game to Watch, along with his pick for the first manager to get fired in 2007. We're also dishing out two preseason awards: the Cristian Antonio Guzman Award for the position player most likely to put up the lowest VORP in regular playing time, and the Brian Kingman Award for the pitcher most likely to lose 20 games. Lastly, we've asked our crew to give their guess at Red Sox starter Daisuke Matsuzaka's first major league line. In the division standings, the Wild Card team is marked with an asterisk.
Game to Watch: Thursday July 5th, Twins at Yankees in a day game. Philip Hughes' pro debut. That's my gut. The First Manager to Get Fired: Phil Garner Cristian Antonio Guzman Award (for the position player most likely to put up the lowest VORP in regular playing time): Why, Cristian Guzman, of course. Brian Kingman Award (for the pitcher most likely to lose 20 games): Gil Meche Daisuke Matsuzaka W-L, ERA, K: 19-7, 2.92, 211 STANDINGS AL EAST AL CENTRAL AL WEST Red Sox Indians Angels Yankees* Tigers A's Devil Rays White Sox Mariners Blue Jays Twins Rangers Orioles Royals AL MVP
1. Manny Ramirez AL CY YOUNG
1. Johan Santana AL ROY
1. Daisuke Matsuzaka
The First Manager to Get Fired: John Gibbons Cristian Antonio Guzman Award (for the position player most likely to put up the lowest VORP in regular playing time): Cesar Izturis Brian Kingman Award (for the pitcher most likely to lose 20 games): Ricky Nolasco Daisuke Matsuzaka W-L, ERA, K: 18-5, 3.41, 215
STANDINGS AL EAST AL CENTRAL AL WEST Yankees Indians Rangers Red Sox Tigers A's* Orioles White Sox Mariners Blue Jays Twins Angels Devil Rays Royals AL MVP
1. Grady Sizemore AL CY YOUNG
1. Johan Santana AL ROY
1. Daisuke Matsuzaka Game to Watch: August 16, Giants at Braves. In the game Barry Bonds will hit home run number 756 and the game will be remarkable because of the lack of fanfare surrounding the event. The game is not a sellout, Braves fans boo, and there is no official ceremony. The First Manager to Get Fired: Mike Hargrove Cristian Antonio Guzman Award (for the position player most likely to put up the lowest VORP in regular playing time): Tony Pena Jr. Brian Kingman Award (for the pitcher most likely to lose 20 games): Gil Meche Daisuke Matsuzaka W-L, ERA, K: 17-12 4.22 179 STANDINGS
AL EAST AL CENTRAL AL WEST Red Sox Indians Angels Yankees* Tigers Rangers Blue Jays Twins A's Orioles White Sox Mariners Devil Rays Royals AL MVP
1. Grady Sizemore AL CY YOUNG
1. Johan Santana AL ROY
1. Alex Gordon Game to Watch: Matsuzaka's first regular season start. The First Manager to Get Fired: Buddy Bell Cristian Antonio Guzman Award (for the position player most likely to put up the lowest VORP in regular playing time): Royce Clayton Brian Kingman Award (for the pitcher most likely to lose 20 games): Any one of starters #2-5 in the Nationals pitching staff. Daisuke Matsuzaka W-L, ERA, K: 16-6, 3.79, 212 STANDINGS
AL EAST AL CENTRAL AL WEST Yankees Indians Angels Red Sox* Twins Rangers Blue Jays Tigers A's Orioles White Sox Mariners Devil Rays Royals AL MVP
1. Travis Hafner AL CY YOUNG
1. Johan Santana AL ROY
1. Alex Gordon Game to Watch (game on the schedule that piques your interest, for whatever reason): Sunday, April 29. Matsuzaka's first start at Yankee Stadium, if my fingers can count correctly (sometime in that April 27-29 series). That or Philip Hughes' major-league debut, whenever that is. The First Manager to Get Fired: Mike Hargrove Cristian Antonio Guzman Award (for the position player most likely to put up the lowest VORP in regular playing time): Tony Pena Jr. (or maybe Cristian Guzman) Brian Kingman Award (for the pitcher most likely to lose 20 games): John Patterson Daisuke Matsuzaka W-L, ERA, K: 16-10, 3.75 ERA, 185 Ks STANDINGS
AL EAST AL CENTRAL AL WEST Yankees Indians Angels Red Sox* Twins A's Blue Jays Tigers Rangers Devil Rays White Sox Mariners Orioles Royals AL MVP
1. Grady Sizemore AL CY YOUNG
1. John Lackey AL ROY
1. Daisuke Matsuzaka Game to Watch: Mets at Cardinals, April 1, NLCS rematch right out of the gate. The First Manager to Get Fired: Sam Perlozzo Cristian Antonio Guzman Award (for the position player most likely to put up the lowest VORP in regular playing time): Brad Ausmus Brian Kingman Award (for the pitcher most likely to lose 20 games): Livan Hernandez Daisuke Matsuzaka W-L, ERA, K: 17-6, 3.12, 215 STANDINGS
AL EAST AL CENTRAL AL WEST Yankees Indians Rangers Blue Jays Tigers* Angels Red Sox Twins A's Devil Rays White Sox Mariners Orioles Royals AL MVP
1. Travis Hafner AL CY YOUNG
1. Kevin Millwood AL ROY
1. Daisuke Matsuzaka Game to Watch: St. Louis at Detroit, Friday May 18 The First Manager to Get Fired: Grady Little Cristian Antonio Guzman Award (for the position player most likely to put up the lowest VORP in regular playing time): Brad Ausmus Brian Kingman Award (for the pitcher most likely to lose 20 games): Gil Meche Daisuke Matsuzaka W-L, ERA, K: 13-8, 3.57, 190 STANDINGS
AL EAST AL CENTRAL AL WEST Yankees Indians Angels Red Sox* Tigers A's Blue Jays Twins Rangers Devil Rays White Sox Mariners Orioles Royals
AL MVP AL CY YOUNG
1. Johan Santana AL ROY
1. Daisuke Matzsuaka Game to Watch: September 16th, Yankees at Red Sox - Matsuzaka gets his 20th win in a Red Sox blowout at home. The First Manager to Get Fired: Mike Hargrove Cristian Antonio Guzman Award (for the position player most likely to put up the lowest VORP in regular playing time): Jose Vidro Brian Kingman Award (for the pitcher most likely to lose 20 games): Horacio Ramirez Daisuke Matsuzaka W-L, ERA, K: 21-8, 3.80, 180 STANDINGS
AL EAST AL CENTRAL AL WEST Yankees Indians A's Red Sox Twins* Angels Blue Jays Tigers Rangers Devil Rays White Sox Mariners Orioles Royals AL MVP
1. Grady Sizemore AL CY YOUNG
1. Johan Santana AL ROY
1. Alex Gordon Game to Watch: 4/22/07 - BOS at NYY. ESPN's Sunday Night Game, Matsuzaka vs Yanks. In two of his first three starts, Matsuzaka will face the Mariners and the Yankees, a fine coincidence of scheduling. While Ichiro vs. Matsuzaka will peak the interest across the Pacific, on this side of the ocean, it's Sox-Yanks that will get the prime time spotlight. The First Manager to Get Fired: Phil Garner. The Astros are primed for another weak start in a tough division. Hard to believe he'll be gone quickly, but I don't see anyone else in the game who'll be fired. Cristian Antonio Guzman Award (for the position player most likely to put up the lowest VORP in regular playing time): Brad Ausmus. Can Cristian Guzman win this award himself? I'd say Nook Logan if I thought he could keep the job, but I'll go with yet another Astro. Brian Kingman Award (for the pitcher most likely to lose 20 games): If John Patterson stays healthy, I think he's a lock, but I don't think he will. I'll give this to Paul Maholm, who deserves better. Daisuke Matsuzaka W-L, ERA, K: 19-11, 3.20, 195. The K's will go down as he learns to be efficient with his pitches. He'll have a lot of decisions, going deep into games in almost every start. STANDINGS
AL EAST AL CENTRAL AL WEST Red Sox Indians A's Yankees* Twins Rangers Devil Rays White Sox Angels Blue Jays Tigers Mariners Orioles Royals AL MVP
1. Carl Crawford AL CY YOUNG
1. C.C. Sabathia AL ROY
1. Daisuke Matsuzaka Game to Watch: Opening Day at Safeco features Dan Haren versus King Felix, who will still be 20. Scary fun. The First Manager to Get Fired: Eric Wedge Cristian Antonio Guzman Award (for the position player most likely to put up the lowest VORP in regular playing time): Tony Pena Jr. Brian Kingman Award (for the pitcher most likely to lose 20 games): Steve Trachsel Daisuke Matsuzaka W-L, ERA, K: 18-7, 4.35, 180 K STANDINGS
AL EAST AL CENTRAL AL WEST Red Sox Tigers A's Yankees* Indians Mariners Blue Jays Twins Angels Devil Rays White Sox Rangers Orioles Royals AL MVP
1. Alex Rodriguez AL CY YOUNG
1. Johan Santana AL ROY
1. Daisuke Matsuzaka Game to Watch: August 14th: Giants at Braves - 1st of a 4-game series… Bonds could break Aaron's record here or may be showing up in Atlanta after having recently broken it. The First Manager to Get Fired: Mike Hargrove Cristian Antonio Guzman Award (for the position player most likely to put up the lowest VORP in regular playing time): Ben Zobrist Brian Kingman Award (for the pitcher most likely to lose 20 games): Matt Morris Daisuke Matsuzaka W-L, ERA, K: 16-9 3.36 175 K's STANDINGS
AL EAST AL CENTRAL AL WEST Red Sox Tigers Angels Yankees Indians* Rangers Blue Jays White Sox A's Orioles Twins Mariners Devil Rays Royals AL MVP
1. Travis Hafner AL CY YOUNG
1. Johan Santana AL ROY
1. Daisuke Matsuzaka The First Manager to Get Fired: Buddy Bell Cristian Antonio Guzman Award (for the position player most likely to put up the lowest VORP in regular playing time): Darin Erstad Brian Kingman Award (for the pitcher most likely to lose 20 games): Eric Milton Daisuke Matsuzaka W-L, ERA, K: 15-9 W-L, 3.80 ERA, 190K STANDINGS
AL EAST AL CENTRAL AL WEST Red Sox Indians Angels Yankees Tigers A's Devil Rays Twins Rangers Blue Jays White Sox Mariners Orioles Royals AL MVP
1. Grady Sizemore AL CY YOUNG
1. Justin Verlander AL ROY
1. Daisuke Matsuzaka Game to Watch: The game that could force me to get DirecTV would be a matchup between Johan Santana and Felix Hernandez, which is something that could happen as early as April 17 or as late as August 15-18. If it happens, I'll be watching. That game could feature two Cy Young contenders, just a handful of hits, and any of Santana's starts could feature him going for the lefty single-game strikeout record. The First Manager to Get Fired: Mike Hargrove Cristian Antonio Guzman Award (for the position player most likely to put up the lowest VORP in regular playing time): You mean the Bradley David Ausmus Award, right? So long as Ausmus remains healthy enough, the sky (or is it the basement?) is the limit! Brian Kingman Award (for the pitcher most likely to lose 20 games): Gil Meche Daisuke Matsuzaka W-L, ERA, K: 17-8, 3.28, 195 STANDINGS
AL EAST AL CENTRAL AL WEST Yankees Twins Angels Red Sox* White Sox Mariners Devil Rays Indians A's Blue Jays Tigers Rangers Orioles Royals AL MVP
1. Vladimir Guerrero AL CY YOUNG
1. Johan Santana AL ROY
1. Daisuke Matsuzaka 0 comments have been left for this article.
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