May 10, 2000

Doctoring The Numbers

Triples, Colorado, and Cristian Guzman

by Rany Jazayerli

Come Back, Lance Johnson! All Is Forgiven!

Through 33 games, the Chicago Cubs had yet to hit a triple. The teams with the fewest triples in history in seasons with at least 120 games played:

Team               Year    3B

Baltimore          1998    11
New York (AL)      1988    12
Baltimore          1986    13
Oakland            1998    13
Los Angeles (NL)   1986    14
New York (NL)      1999    14
Toronto            1999    14

So This is Dan O'Dowd's Master Plan?

While Don Baylor's new team can't run 270 feet, his old team has hit 18 triples in 30 games. The Rockies are on pace for 97 triples, a number no team has reached since the 1932 Senators. While Tom Goodwin (six triples so far) is a big part of the reason, it's really a team effort: nine different players have hit a three-bagger, including Ben Petrick and Jeff Cirillo.

Coors Field (surprise!) certainly plays a role, increasing triples by 37% over the last three years, and the Rockies have finished in the top three in the NL in triples every year of their existence. The 1993 Rockies hit 59 triples, the highest total of the decade. The teams with the most triples since 1945:

Team               Year     3B

Kansas City        1979     79
Kansas City        1977     77
New York (AL)      1948     75
Washington         1948     75
New York (AL)      1947     72

The all-time record is 150 by the 1894 Brooklyn Superbas; no other team has hit more than 131.

The Surprising Mr. Guzman

The current major-league leader in triples is...Cristian Guzman, who already has seven after hitting just 16 last season--16 extra-base hits. Small sample size caveats apply, but Guzman is hitting .298/.360/.484, with a strikeout-to-walk ratio of exactly one (13/13), after posting a ratio over four (90/22) in his rookie season. Guzman was the worst-hitting regular in the majors as a rookie, but at age 21, he was also one of the youngest regulars in baseball.

How surprising is his improvement? Here's Guzman's rookie season and its five best comps (using Similarity Scores, which include age but ignore position) in history:

Name            Year  G   AB   H 2B 3B HR  R  RBI  BB  SO SB CS   AVG  OBP  SLG Age Score

Cristian Guzman 1999 131 420  95 12  3  1  47  26  22  90  9  7  .226 .267 .276  21 1000
Nyls Nyman      1975 106 327  74  6  3  2  36  28  11  34 10  4  .226 .255 .281  21  969
Wayne Garrett   1969 124 400  87 11  3  1  38  39  40  75  4  2  .218 .290 .268  21  966
Nelson Norman   1979 147 343  76  9  3  0  36  21  19  41  4  1  .222 .260 .265  21  962
Joe Lovitto     1972 117 330  74  9  1  1  23  19  37  54 13 11  .224 .306 .267  20  959
Toby Harrah     1971 127 383  88 11  3  2  45  22  40  48 10  9  .230 .300 .290  22  955

An eclectic mix of comps, which is not surprising given the nature of the list: impressive youth with distinctly unimpressive numbers. Neither Nyls Nyman nor Nelson Norman--repeat that three times fast--batted even 100 times after their ill-fated rookie seasons, while Joe Lovitto, the only outfielder on the list, was rushed to the majors by the Texas Rangers, a year before David Clyde.

Wayne Garrett played 10 years and 1,092 games in the majors, and Toby Harrah, who was a Ranger rookie (in their last year as the Senators) the year before Lovitto, made the All-Star team the following season and three more times in a career that spanned 17 years and 2,155 games.

If you're looking for a more recent comparison that might lend credence to the theory that Guzman has a chance to develop into a tough hitter, look no further than his eighth-best comp:

Name            Year  G   AB   H 2B 3B HR  R  RBI  BB  SO SB CS   AVG  OBP  SLG Age Score

Cristian Guzman 1999 131 420  95 12  3  1  47  26  22  90  9  7  .226 .267 .276  21 1000
Omar Vizquel    1989 143 387  85  7  3  1  45  20  28  40  1  4  .220 .273 .261  22  953

Rany Jazayerli, M.D., can be reached at ranyj@baseballprospectus.com.

Rany Jazayerli is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
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