November 1, 2006

Hacking Mass

Results and Wrap-Up

by Ben Murphy

If the postseason hasn't been exciting enough for you, we're happy to give you our wrap-up of one of Baseball Prospectus' longest standing contests, HACKING MASS. As per our usual tradition, we'll peruse the most valuable, most popular and the winning squad of HACKING MASSters, and give you reference to the full list of players. Let's get the ball rolling with the HACKING MASS All-Stars:

HACKING MASS All-Star Team

Our All-Stars this year feature several repeats, including perennial hackster Brad Ausmus, who has accumulated the most ESPN (Exuded Stiffness Points, Net) amongst catchers since the inception of HACKING MASS in 2002. Ausmus and Scott Podsednik are both on the All-Star and All-Popular teams, but outside those two, the All-Star team was relatively unpopular. We'll touch on this more later, but to some extent the All-Star team is inevitably filled with players that were unexpectedly terrible. This is a continuing trend, and part of what makes HACKING MASS such an exciting competition.

Mark Loretta is probably the most unexpected member of the HACKING MASS All-Star team, sporting a fairly decent career line of .299/.363/.402, but has consistently gotten stiffer over his career. His ESPN has gotten higher each year since 2002, at -20, -11, 0, 43, and 66 in 2006.

Elsewhere, Scott Podsednik continues accumulating ESPN and has moved up to third place for all left fielders after collecting 124 ESPN the past two years. For the pitching staff, Joel Pineiro had his second consecutive 100+ season as one of only five players to eclipse triple digits this season. Of the five, three were shortstops, including Ronny Cedeno, Clint Barmes, and Angel Berroa--Ausmus was the fifth.

Name	Position	Popularity	2006 ESPN
Brad Ausmus	C	333	104
Tomas Perez	1B	4	74
Mark Loretta	2B	4	66
Abraham Nunez	3B	10	82
Ronny Cedeno	SS	7	109
Scott Podsednik	LF	709	68
Joey Gathright	CF	25	83
Rondell White	RF	5	56
Joel Pineiro	P	32	103
Jason Marquis	P	1	98
Total		1130	843

HACKING MASS All-Popular Team

No surprises in the infield, as everyone has figured out that Ausmus is the best catcher to have, and he has been a safe HACKING MASS pick for a few years. Womack is a veritable posterboy for HACKING MASS, but didn't really get enough playing time this year to rack up the ESPN with only 50 AB.

In the outfield, Jacque Jones disappointed many owners, posting a negative score. Jones' popularity was likely due to an unfavorable forecast, as he has never been especially valuable in HACKING MASS; his highest score was last year's 25, but he's had a negative score in three of the last five seasons. Outfield spots tend to be much more difficult to fill than the infield, so guys like Taveras and Podsednik are a HACKING MASSter's best friend. In all, the All-Popular team combined for 515 points, which would have gotten a prospective owner 47th place.

Name	Position	Popularity	2006 ESPN
Brad Ausmus	C	333	104
Doug Mientkiewicz	1B	445	11
Tony Womack	2B	411	8
Vinny Castilla	3B	301	65
Adam Everett	SS	200	90
Scott Podsednik	LF	709	68
Willy Taveras	CF	450	75
Jacque Jones	RF	362	-18
Eric Milton	P	600	35
Russ Ortiz	P	373	77
Total		4184	515

Your Winner: Hairy Inquisitive Sex Octopus

This year's winner is Sean Riley, a library clerk from Auburn, California. He assembled the winning team with a couple Astros, a couple Ortizes, HACKING MASS stud Scott Podsednik, and a few spare parts that all accumulated ESPN for him. As in past years, the winning squad didn't have any selections that were overly surprising, and all players had positive scores.

When asked about his team, Sean commented that "picking both Ortiz pitchers was an easy call," noting that even when Russ Ortiz was released by the Diamondbacks, he was optimistic that somebody would be foolish enough to give him some more innings; the Orioles happily obliged by giving Ortiz 40 innings while he amassed a hacktastic 8.48 ERA.

Sean also commented that "as long as the Astros favor defense over offense, I will continue to pick Brad Ausmus and Adam Everett; year after year after futile year." It seems like a sound strategy--we've reviewed Ausmus' credentials, and Everett also has been very valuable to HACKING MASS squads, accumulating the most ESPN for an offensive player in the last three seasons total.

Rounding out the squad were veritable HACKING MASS role players like J.T. Snow, who Sean had hoped would have more playing time in Boston, but "he sucked just enough in the little time he played that he still cashed in," helping Sean's team at a position where it can be hard to find elite hacksters. Congrats to Sean on taking home the goods this year.

Position	Player	Popularity	2005 ESPN	2006 ESPN
Catcher	Brad Ausmus	333	52	104
First Base	J.T. Snow	24	37	14
Second Base	Aaron Miles	115	47	61
Third Base	Vinny Castilla	301	43	65
Shortstop	Adam Everett	200	86	90
Left Field	Scott Podsednik	709	56	68
Center Field	Willy Taveras	450	84	75
Right Field	Jeromy Burnitz	172	29	30
Pitcher 1	Ramon Ortiz	21	77	68
Pitcher 2	Russ Ortiz	373	111	77
Total		2698	622	652

Best Loser

As with last year, we'd like to point out the continuing competition to have the most negative ESPN. There is no prize for biggest loser, especially with such blatant efforts to do so, but it is worth noting that SneakySouthPaw's Killer Brew managed to amass -813 ESPN in 2006.

The aspiring statistician in me also wants to point out that part of the fun of HACKING MASS is that it is much harder to predict which players will play the worst, especially when accounting for playing time. The nature of the player pool and the talent distribution makes it easier to predict which players will succeed on an annual basis--there are a limited number of excellent players so that picking the most valuable is easier than selecting which players will be the worst out of a much larger pool of mediocre players, simply based on the odds. So while it is fascinating to see who can accrue the most negative ESPN, it is not a particularly difficult task.

Overall Standings

For this article I've cited the overall standings since the start of HACKING MASS in 2002, and over the last three years. Below, for curiosity's sake, I've included the top five players for total ESPN accumulated over the past three seasons at each position. The players are listed at the positions for which they were qualified in the 2006 HACKING MASS competition, which is why you see (for example) Bernie Williams at first base.

Player	POS	2004	2005	2006	Total
Pineiro, Joel	P	7	102	103	212
Milton, Eric	P	5	153	35	193
Ortiz, Russ	P	1	111	77	189
Ponson, Sidney	P	25	96	50	171
Perez, Oliver	P	28	64	77	169
Player	POS	2004	2005	2006	Total
Ausmus, Brad	C	14	52	104	170
Kendall, Jason	C	9	91	57	157
Molina, Yadier	C	0	60	94	154
Schneider, Brian	C	5	25	69	99
Olivo, Miguel	C	13	52	33	98
Player	POS	2004	2005	2006	Total
Perez, Tomas	1B	1	41	74	116
Nevin, Phil	1B	12	55	17	84
Williams, Bernie	1B	5	61	15	81
Lee, Travis	1B	9	19	48	76
Everett, Carl	1B	-8	30	49	71
Player	POS	2004	2005	2006	Total
Izturis, Cesar	2B	-1	84	39	122
Cairo, Miguel	2B	1	64	49	114
Punto, Nick	2B	3	71	39	113
Miles, Aaron	2B	3	47	61	111
Loretta, Mark	2B	0	43	66	109
Player	POS	2004	2005	2006	Total
Bell, David	3B	15	79	36	130
Boone, Aaron	3B	0	69	45	114
Feliz, Pedro	3B	-4	51	58	105
Figgins, Chone	3B	6	38	60	104
Blum, Geoff	3B	-2	56	42	96
Player	POS	2004	2005	2006	Total
Everett, Adam	SS	16	86	90	192
Berroa, Angel	SS	2	77	104	183
Wilson, Jack	SS	20	87	67	174
Clayton, Royce	SS	10	73	76	159
Perez, Neifi	SS	-2	71	71	140
Player	POS	2004	2005	2006	Total
Podsednik, Scott	LF	7	56	68	131
Byrd, Marlon	LF	72	26	30	128
Finley, Steve	LF	13	68	41	122
Nix, Laynce	LF	28	33	26	87
Stewart, Shannon	LF	8	53	16	77
Player	POS	2004	2005	2006	Total
Taveras, Willy	CF	0	84	75	159
Pierre, Juan	CF	1	85	62	148
Patterson, Corey	CF	4	94	21	119
Gathright, Joey	CF	0	31	83	114
Reed, Jeremy	CF	9	68	37	114
Player	POS	2004	2005	2006	Total
Ford, Lew	RF	6	49	51	106
Burnitz, Jeromy	RF	-3	29	30	56
Mench, Kevin	RF	14	2	33	49
White, Rondell	RF	3	-14	56	45
Francoeur, Jeffrey	RF	0	0	40	40

In the coming days, we'll wrap up the second annual Predictatron contest.