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October 9, 2006 Completely Random Statistical Trivia2006 in ReviewThere's no theme to today's article. Just a random mishmash of hopefully interesting statistical tidbits for the past season, and revisiting some ideas from past columns:Longest Plate Appearances of the Year I wrote a series of articles back in 2002 that looked at long plate appearances, as measured by number of pitches thrown. I thought it might be fun to look at the long-PA leaders for 2006. There were three plate appearances that lasted 16 pitches this year. All involved the Astros. On July 27th, the Reds' Elizardo Ramirez struck out Astro Craig Biggio. On the game between Houston and the Cubs on June 15th, Fernando Nieve got Ronny Cedeno to fly out. And finally, Mike Lamb flied out against the Rangers pitcher Vicente Padilla on June 30th. The longest PAs that ended with a walk were Red Sox hitter Alex Cora getting walked by Cleveland's Paul Byrd on April 27th, and Tiger Brandon Inge earning a pass from Athletic Justin Duchscherer on April 20th. Both were 15 pitches long. The longest PA ending in a HR (or any hit, for that matter) was Hideki Matsui of the Yankees taking Jae Seo deep on September 25th. At 14 pitches, it was also the longest first-inning PA of the year. The longest extra-inning PA occurred when Dan Johnson of the A's batted against the Padres' Scott Cassidy in the 14th inning of the game on June 29th. Johnson grounded out to second. The longest HBP was when Paul Maholm of the Pirates plunked Lastings Milledge of the Mets on the 12th pitch of the PA on September 15th. The longest plate appearance that never made it to a three-ball count belong to Juan Uribe, who took Jamie Walker to 14 pitches, with taking just two balls. After taking the first-pitch strike, he fouled off three more pitches before taking a ball, then fouled off four more pitches before getting the second ball. Three more fouls later, and Uribe finally grounded out to second on the 14th pitch.
The longest PA of the year involving only strikes (no balls) was between Atlanta's Hidden Perfect Games, No Hitters, and Nightmares Back in two articles in May 2004, I introduced the concept of a "hidden perfect game," a streak of 27 or more batters retired by a pitcher, but that may span multiple games or be a subset of a single game, and thus not recognized as an official perfect game. Little did I know that on the day the second article appeared, a new hidden perfect game was beginning, and another would start two days later. We went through all of 2006 without having a midden perfecto, but two pitchers managed to achieve one in 2006. Here are all the hidden perfect games since May 26, 2004:
Pitcher Streak Start Date End Date --------------- ------ ---------- --------- Greg Maddux 32 13-AUG-06 19-AUG-06 Dontrelle Willis 31 28-MAY-04 02-JUN-04 Shingo Takatsu 29 26-MAY-04 22-JUN-04 Livan Hernandez 28 20-JUL-04 25-JUL-04 John Lackey 27 07-JUL-06 07-JUL-06 (leadoff hit, then retired 27 straight) The idea of a hidden perfect game lends itself to other similar definitions, such as a hidden no-hitter, which is 27 straight at-bats without allowing a hit. This is somewhat easier to achieve, since walks, HBP and reaching on error are permitted during the streak. In fact, there have been 101 hidden no-hitters since 2000, but in the interest of space, we'll show just those with 35 or more straight AB without a hit:
Pitcher Streak Start Date End Date -------------------- ---------- ---------- --------- Mike Hampton 41 14-JUN-03 19-JUN-03 Armando Benitez 40 04-MAY-04 04-JUN-04 Randy Johnson 39 12-MAY-04 23-MAY-04 Derek Lowe 37 31-AUG-05 05-SEP-05 Alan Embree 36 15-JUN-02 07-JUL-02 Armando Benitez 36 22-JUL-04 08-SEP-04 Pedro Martinez 35 24-AUG-00 29-AUG-00 We can turn the tables, and look at batting streaks. The batting counterpart of a perfect game might be 27 straight plate appearances without a hit, a "perfect nightmare" if you will. As you might expect, pitchers themselves are represented on the list quite often, as they are often very poor hitters. But the occasional position player creeps on to the list as well. Still we'll set the bar higher for pitchers, requiring 35 straight PA before we'll list them. Non pitchers:
Player Streak StartDate EndDate -------------------- ---------- --------- --------- Andy Fox 39 28-APR-04 30-SEP-04 Joe McEwing 34 26-MAY-02 05-JUL-02 Brad Ausmus 34 18-JUN-06 30-JUN-06 Mark Kotsay 29 25-JUN-06 03-JUL-06 Hee-Seop Choi 28 21-MAY-05 02-JUN-05 Andruw Jones 28 13-APR-05 22-APR-05 Brandon Phillips 28 27-MAY-03 05-JUN-03 Brook Fordyce 27 01-JUL-04 08-AUG-04 Torii Hunter 27 22-APR-00 02-MAY-00 Bernard Gilkey 27 23-MAY-00 18-JUN-00Pitchers: Player Streak StartDate EndDate -------------------- ---------- --------- --------- Kaz Ishii 55 19-JUL-02 10-SEP-03 Chris Carpenter 54 24-JUN-04 12-MAY-05 Shane Reynolds 47 14-APR-02 27-MAY-03 A.J. Burnett 41 29-JUL-01 30-APR-02 Tony Armas Jr. 40 10-APR-03 07-JUN-05 Ryan Dempster 39 22-JUN-01 17-SEP-01 Andy Ashby 38 23-JUL-02 23-AUG-03 Victor Santos 37 05-AUG-04 30-MAY-05 Aaron Harang 37 11-MAY-04 06-SEP-04 Matt Kinney 35 19-JUN-02 13-JUL-03 Doug Davis 35 30-JUL-04 01-MAY-05 Teams can also turn in hidden perfect games, where multiple pitchers combine to retire 27+ in a row.
Team Streak StartDate EndDate --- ---------- --------- --------- OAK 31 21-AUG-02 22-AUG-02 TEX 31 08-AUG-02 09-AUG-02 ANA 30 07-JUL-06 08-JUL-06 ARI 28 16-MAY-04 19-MAY-04 (Randy Johnson's actual perfect game) FLO 27 06-JUL-05 07-JUL-05 SEA 27 02-AUG-01 03-AUG-01 NYA 27 01-SEP-01 02-SEP-01 Hidden no-hitters by teams are also not only possible, but relatively common. There have been 98 hidden team no-hitters. Note that hidden no hitters by individual pitchers and hidden no hitters by teams do not typically overlap. Teams with 35 straight at-bats without a hit since 2000 are:
Team Streak StartDate EndDate --- ---------- --------- --------- COL 38 01-MAY-02 02-MAY-02 OAK 38 08-APR-06 09-APR-06 PHI 37 26-SEP-01 27-SEP-01 PIT 37 29-AUG-00 30-AUG-00 SDN 36 21-SEP-06 22-SEP-06 ANA 35 06-MAY-01 08-MAY-01 FLO 35 11-MAY-01 13-MAY-01 (A.J. Burnett no hitter) ANA 35 07-JUL-06 08-JUL-06 LAN 35 19-JUL-00 20-JUL-00 Cycles, Supercycles and Pedicycles Back in an article in 2003, I introduced two variants on the traditional accomplishment of "hitting for the cycle." The "supercycle" is a game where a batter hits as well as or better than a standard cycle. That is, a game where the batter has at least four hits, including at least one home run, two hits that are either home runs or triples, and three hits that are either home runs, doubles or triples. There were 27 supercycles in 2006:
NAME GAMEDATE TEA OPP PA AB H B1 B2 B3 HR BB CYCLE -------------------- --------- --- --- ---- ---- ---- --- --- --- --- ---- ----- Nick Johnson 20-APR-06 WAS PHI 5 4 4 1 1 0 2 1 N Alfonso Soriano 21-APR-06 WAS ATL 5 5 4 0 1 0 3 0 N Troy Glaus 01-MAY-06 TOR BAL 5 5 4 0 2 0 2 0 N Jose Castillo 30-MAY-06 PIT MIL 5 4 4 1 1 0 2 1 N Damion Easley 03-JUN-06 ARI ATL 5 5 4 1 0 0 3 0 N Gerald Laird 04-JUN-06 TEX CHA 5 5 4 0 2 0 2 0 N Carlos Beltran 09-JUN-06 NYN ARI 5 5 4 1 1 0 2 0 N Joe Crede 20-JUN-06 CHA SLN 5 5 4 1 1 0 2 0 N Jose Reyes 21-JUN-06 NYN CIN 5 5 4 1 1 1 1 0 Y Kenji Johjima 24-JUN-06 SEA SDN 5 5 4 1 1 0 2 0 N Richie Sexson 25-JUN-06 SEA SDN 5 5 5 2 1 0 2 0 N Carlos Beltran 02-JUL-06 NYN NYA 5 5 4 1 1 0 2 0 N Adam LaRoche 14-JUL-06 ATL SDN 6 6 4 1 1 0 2 0 N Andruw Jones 18-JUL-06 ATL SLN 5 5 5 2 1 0 2 0 N Luke Scott 28-JUL-06 HOU ARI 6 6 4 1 1 1 1 0 Y Carlos Guillen 01-AUG-06 DET TBA 5 5 4 1 1 1 1 0 Y Mark DeRosa 09-AUG-06 TEX OAK 6 5 4 1 1 0 2 1 N Chipper Jones 14-AUG-06 ATL WAS 5 5 4 1 0 0 3 0 N Bernie Williams 27-AUG-06 NYA ANA 5 5 4 1 1 0 2 0 N Ryan Howard 03-SEP-06 PHI ATL 4 4 4 1 0 0 3 0 N Cody Ross 11-SEP-06 FLO NYN 5 5 4 1 0 0 3 0 N Gary Matthews Jr. 13-SEP-06 TEX DET 5 4 4 1 1 1 1 1 Y Chone Figgins 16-SEP-06 ANA TEX 4 4 4 1 1 1 1 0 Y Marlon Anderson 18-SEP-06 LAN SDN 5 5 5 2 0 1 2 0 N Garrett Atkins 19-SEP-06 COL SFN 5 5 4 1 0 1 2 0 N Andruw Jones 23-SEP-06 ATL COL 5 4 4 1 1 0 2 1 N James Loney 28-SEP-06 LAN COL 5 5 4 1 1 0 2 0 N The same article also introduced the "pedicycle," a game where the batter earns a base on balls, in additon to hitting for the cycle. This is quite a bit harder than a supercycle, as it requires reaching base five times in five different ways. It's only been done twice in the past two seasons:
NAME GAMEDATE TEA OPP PA AB H B1 B2 B3 HR BB -------------------- --------- --- --- ---- ---- ---- --- --- --- --- ---- Gary Matthews Jr. 13-SEP-06 TEX DET 5 4 4 1 1 1 1 1 Brad Wilkerson 06-APR-05 WAS PHI 5 4 4 1 1 1 1 1 Reaching on Error Leaders and "True OBP" Questions about batters who reach base on error (ROE) are one of the most popular kind that I receive from readers. The 2006 leaders in reaching on error are:
NAME PA ROE ROE_RATE -------------------- ---- --- -------- Kenji Johjima 542 13 .0240 Carlos Beltran 617 13 .0211 Juan Pierre 750 13 .0173 Adrian Beltre 681 11 .0162 Edgar Renteria 673 11 .0163 Clint Barmes 535 11 .0206 Josh Willingham 573 11 .0192 Brandon Inge 601 11 .0183 Michael Young 748 11 .0147 Ichiro Suzuki 752 11 .0146 Jay Payton 588 11 .0187 Adam Everett 566 10 .0177 Conor Jackson 556 10 .0180 Melky Cabrera 525 10 .0190 Brian Anderson 406 10 .0246 Orlando Hudson 650 10 .0154 Corey Patterson 499 10 .0200 Derek Jeter 715 10 .0140 Mike Lowell 631 10 .0158 With some batters "missing out" on as much as 24 points of OBP by not considering ROE, you might be wondering who the "true" OBP leaders are. But let's not stop with ROE. Intentional walks, while often a sign of respect for the batter from the opposing team, do not represent the batter's own attempted efforts to reach base, so we'll exclude them. And since we're including reaching on errors, we should also include sacrifice hits in the denominator, since as some recent research has shown, a significant part of the value in sacrificing is the chance that the fielding team blows the play, allowing the batter to reach base. For players with 300+ plate appearances, the "true OBP" leaders for 2006 are:
NAME PA H UBB IBB HBP SF SH ROE OBP TRUE_OBP -------------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --- ------ -------- Esteban German 331 91 40 0 6 0 6 6 .422 .432 Manny Ramirez 558 144 84 16 1 8 0 5 .439 .432 Travis Hafner 564 140 84 16 7 2 0 1 .439 .424 Bobby Abreu 686 163 118 6 3 9 2 4 .424 .424 Derek Jeter 715 214 65 4 12 4 7 10 .417 .423 Nick Johnson 628 145 95 15 13 3 2 6 .428 .423 Miguel Cabrera 676 195 59 27 10 4 0 8 .430 .419 Joe Mauer 608 181 58 21 1 7 0 6 .429 .419 Barry Bonds 493 99 77 38 10 1 0 3 .454 .415 Chipper Jones 477 133 57 4 1 4 0 5 .409 .414 Albert Pujols 634 177 64 28 4 3 0 5 .431 .413 Garrett Atkins 695 198 73 6 7 7 0 4 .409 .409 Lance Berkman 646 169 76 22 4 8 0 6 .420 .409 Jim Thome 610 141 95 12 6 7 0 2 .416 .408 Jason Giambi 579 113 98 12 16 7 0 4 .413 .407 Carlos Guillen 622 174 61 10 4 4 0 8 .400 .404 Carlos Beltran 617 140 89 6 4 7 1 13 .388 .403 Ryan Howard 704 182 71 37 9 6 0 5 .425 .400 Players who "lose" at least 10 points of OBP using this alternate method are:
NAME PA H UBB IBB HBP SF SH ROE OBP TRUE_OBP DIFF ----------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --- ------ -------- ------ Barry Bonds 493 99 77 38 10 1 0 3 .454 .415 .039 Ryan Howard 704 182 71 37 9 6 0 5 .425 .400 .024 Vladimir Guerrero 665 200 25 25 4 4 0 1 .382 .359 .023 Albert Pujols 634 177 64 28 4 3 0 5 .431 .413 .018 David Ortiz 686 160 96 23 4 5 0 3 .413 .397 .016 Travis Hafner 564 140 84 16 7 2 0 1 .439 .424 .015 Miguel Cabrera 676 195 59 27 10 4 0 8 .430 .419 .011 Dioner Navarro 302 68 25 6 1 1 1 1 .332 .321 .011 Garret Anderson 588 152 27 11 0 7 0 1 .323 .312 .011 Lance Berkman 646 169 76 22 4 8 0 6 .420 .409 .011 Joe Mauer 608 181 58 21 1 7 0 6 .429 .419 .010 Damian Miller 376 83 26 7 4 5 3 2 .322 .312 .010 Player who gain at least 15 points of OBP using this alternate method are:
NAME PA H UBB IBB HBP SF SH ROE OBP TRUE_OBP DIFF ----------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --- ------ -------- ------ Kenji Johjima 542 147 19 1 13 3 0 13 .332 .355 -.023 Brian Anderson 406 82 28 2 5 3 2 10 .290 .309 -.020 Jay Payton 588 165 21 1 4 5 0 11 .325 .342 -.018 Josh Willingham 573 139 52 2 11 6 0 11 .356 .373 -.017 Rickie Weeks 413 100 29 1 19 3 2 8 .363 .379 -.016 Aaron Rowand 445 106 16 2 18 2 2 9 .321 .336 -.016 Rondell White 355 83 9 2 4 3 0 7 .276 .292 -.016 Conor Jackson 556 141 52 2 9 7 1 10 .368 .383 -.015 Michael Young 748 217 48 0 1 8 0 11 .356 .370 -.015 Mark DeRosa 572 154 43 1 6 2 0 9 .357 .371 -.015 Carlos Beltran 617 140 89 6 4 7 1 13 .388 .403 -.015 Chris Duffy 348 80 18 1 10 1 4 7 .317 .331 -.015 Three-Pitch Strikeouts I'm fascinated by pitchers who ring up strikeouts on three pitches, particularly when they are all swung at or all taken. Usually, by the time a pitchers gets to 0-2, he will often waste a pitch outside the strike zone, trying to get the batter to chase one. So the proportion of three-pitch strikeouts is relatively small. Pitchers with the most three-pitch strikeouts:
NAME SO_3PIT ----------------- ---------- Johan Santana 56 John Lackey 49 John Smoltz 46 C.C. Sabathia 45 Aaron Harang 42 Dave Bush 41 Jeremy Bonderman 39 Jake Peavy 38 Javier Vazquez 37 Brett Myers 37 Scott Olsen 36 Dan Haren 35 Brandon Webb 35 Pitchers with the most three-pitch strikeouts, all swung at (including fouls and bunt attempts):
NAME SO_3SWINGS ----------------- ---------- Johan Santana 23 Aaron Harang 17 Ian Snell 15 John Smoltz 14 John Lackey 13 C.C. Sabathia 12 Jake Peavy 12 Brad Lidge 11 Javier Vazquez 10 Scott Kazmir 10 Pitchers with three or more strikeouts recorded on three pitches, all swung and missed:
NAME SO_3MISSED ----------------- ---------- Brad Lidge 5 Aaron Harang 4 Kiko Calero 3 John Koronka 3 Jeremy Bonderman 3 Derrick Turnbow 3 Scott Olsen 3 Brett Myers 3 Mark Mulder 3 Eric Milton 3 Chris Young 3 Andy Pettitte 3 Tim Wakefield 3 Jake Peavy 3 Pitchers with the most strikeouts recorded on three pitches, all taken:
NAME SO_3CALLED ----------------- ---------- Greg Maddux 6 Tom Glavine 6 Dave Bush 4 A.J. Burnett 4 Brad Penny 4 Jamie Moyer 4 Do Nothing Batters Sabermetrics teaches us that patience is a virtue for a batter, but it is still the threat of swinging away that drives the confrontation. Should batters who manage to go the entire plate appearance without even attempting a swing once (other than intentional walks, for obvious reasons) even bother bringing a bat up with them? Batters with the most PA completed without attempting to swing at a pitch (excluding IBB):
NAME PA_NOSWING ----------------- ---------- Jason Giambi 71 Brian Giles 71 Bobby Abreu 70 Nick Johnson 61 Kevin Youkilis 59 Felipe Lopez 58 Adam Dunn 56 Carlos Beltran 55 Pat Burrell 54 Nick Swisher 52 Eric Chavez 51 Scott Hatteberg 50 Jason Bay 50 Travis Hafner 50 Pinch-hitters with the most PA completed without attempting to swing at a pitch (excluding IBB):
NAME PA_NOSWING ----------------- ---------- Gabe Gross 7 Jeff DaVanon 6 Craig Counsell 5 Morgan Ensberg 5 Marlon Anderson 5 Daryle Ward 4 John Rodriguez 4 Matt Stairs 4 Ryan Freel 4 Andy Green 4 Pitchers with the most batters faced without a swing attempted (excluding IBB):
NAME PA_NOSWING ----------------- ---------- Carlos Zambrano 67 Daniel Cabrera 60 Barry Zito 59 Dontrelle Willis 56 Steve Trachsel 54 Ervin Santana 54 Doug Davis 53 Josh Beckett 51 Casey Fossum 50 Vicente Padilla 50 Zach Duke 49 Matt Cain 49 Scott Olsen 48 Paul Maholm 48 Nate Robertson 45 Hope you enjoyed our random tour through the stats of 2006. If you have any oddball stat requests you'd like to see in a future column, please let me know!
Keith Woolner is an author of Baseball Prospectus.
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