March 31, 2006

Preseason Predictions

NL Staff Picks, 2006

by Baseball Prospectus

Index: Voting Results | Individual Ballots | World Series Picks

Yesterday we started our prediction miniseries with a look at the American League. Today we unveil our National League and World Series picks.

Each author's ballot may be found later in the article. Here, we neatly summarize the results. In each division standings table you'll find the average rank of the team, plus the standard deviation. The lower the standard deviation, the more in agreement the authors were about that team's place in the division standings. In our AL column, the Royals had a standard deviation of 0, meaning that all authors agreed they would finish last. And if it weren't for the rebellious, anti-establishment ways of one Keith Woolner, the Cardinals would notch a standard deviation of 0 on the other end of the standings.

It's worth noting that the standard deviations are much higher in the NL than in the AL, particularly in the NL West this year, where disagreement over the likely effect of Bud Selig's fall guy on the division made predictions span the gamut--within reason, though, as only two of our authors think the Rockies will finish out of last place. In their predictions for who will go home with the championship in October, half our authors pointed to the Oakland Athletics to end their recent run of playoff disappointments by taking home the title for the first time since 1989.

Standings:

NL EAST

Team                      Average    Std. Dev.

Atlanta Braves              1.5         .5
New York Mets               1.83        .79
Philadelphia Phillies       2.75        .72
Washington Nationals        4.16        .55
Florida Marlins             4.83        .42

NL CENTRAL

Team                      Average    Std. Dev.

St. Louis Cardinals        1.16         .55
Milwaukee Brewers          2.25         .59
Houston Astros             3.16        1.06
Chicago Cubs               3.75         .72
Pittsburgh Pirates         5.25         .92
Cincinnati Reds            5.41         .64

NL WEST

Team                      Average    Std. Dev.

Los Angeles Dodgers        1.58        .86
San Diego Padres           2.5         1.12
Arizona Diamondbacks       3           1.08
San Francisco Giants       3.08        1.04
Colorado Rockies           4.83         .37

World Series Predictions

Author               Winner        Loser
----------------------------------------
Will Carroll         Indians       Cardinals
Dan Fox              Mets          Red Sox
Steven Goldman       A's           Braves
Kevin Goldstein      White Sox     Mets
Thomas Gorman        A's           Mets
Jay Jaffe            A's           Cardinals
Chris Kahrl          Red Sox       Mets
Jonah Keri           A's           Phillies
Dayn Perry           Red Sox       Braves
Joe Sheehan          A's           Mets
Nate Silver          A's           Mets
Keith Woolner        Red Sox       Brewers

Individual Awards:

For the MVP voting, we've kept the traditional points system in place that's been used elsewhere: 10-7-5-3-1 for the MVP Award, and 5-3-1 for the Cy Young and Rookie of the Year Awards (that's 10 points for a first place vote, 7 for a second place vote, etc). The projected statistics appearing after each player's name are their baseline PECOTA forecasts.

Legend:

• Hitters: Ballots, Points, (1st Place Votes), AVG/OBP/SLG, VORP, WARP, EqA
• Pitchers: Ballots, Points, (1st Place Votes), IP, ERA, VORP, WARP

NL MVP

1. Albert Pujols 12 109 (9) .336/.430/.619, 86.9, 9.2, .345
2. David Wright 9 54 (1) .298/.384/.527, 58.9, 7.3, .309
3. Carlos Delgado 3 18 (1) .278/.376/.521, 36.9, 4.4, .304
4. Andruw Jones 3 18 .275/.351/.522, 40, 6.1, .288
5. Barry Bonds 4 16 .300/.448/.620, 60.6, 6.8, .353
6. Chase Utley 2 15 (1) .276/.351/.481, 31.4, 5.1, .278
7. Carlos Beltran 2 14 .285/.368/.504, 40.8, 6.3, .291
8. Ryan Howard 3 13 .276/.363/.582, 36.1, 4.6, .303
9. Derrek Lee 4 10 .296/.381/.563, 49.1, 6.7, .310
10. J.D. Drew 4 8 .290/.402/.525, 41.7, 5.9, .315
11. Miguel Cabrera 2 6 .304/.376/.549, 56.8, 6.9, .309
12. Jason Bay 2 6 .284/.385/.525, 46.3, 6.8, .304
13. Adam Dunn 2 4 .261/.390/.550, 42.6, 5.6, .310
14. Bobby Abreu 1 5 .286/.400/.481, 34.8, 5.8, .301
15. Lance Berkman 1 5 .292/.408/.519, 45.4, 5.9, .315
16. Scott Rolen 1 3 .261/.349/.453, 16.7, 3.6, .274
17. Brian Giles 1 3 .286/.402/.470, 44.1, 6.2, .309
18. Jeff Kent 1 1 .268/.346/.470, 32.6, 4.7, .279
19. Morgan Ensberg 1 1 .275/.364/.494, 34.1, 5.0, .289
20. Jake Peavy 1 1 213.7, 3.41, 48.4, 7.3

NL Cy Young

1. Jake Peavy 9 39 (6) 213.7, 3.41, 48.4, 7.3
2. Roy Oswalt 5 17 (2) 200.3, 3.72, 39.8, 6.3
3. Brandon Webb 3 10 (1) 208.7, 3.68, 38.5, 6
4. Pedro Martinez 5 9 206.3, 2.86, 54.3, 7.6
5. Carlos Zambrano 2 6 (1) 219.3, 3.44, 44.9, 6.9
6. Dontrelle Willis 2 6 (1) 209.3, 3.48, 38.5, 6.2
7. Ben Sheets 2 6 (1) 196.7, 3.24, 45.7, 6.8
8. Eric Gagne 2 4 47.7, 1.93, 17.7, 5.2
9. Chris Carpenter 1 3 225.3, 3.37, 46.7, 6.8
10. Doug Davis 1 3 208, 3.95, 35.0, 5.9
11. Jason Schmidt 1 1 177.3, 3.39, 36.3, 5.6
12. Mark Mulder 1 1 186, 3.92, 25.4, 4.4
13. Zach Duke 1 1 178.3, 3.86, 27.9, 4.7

NL ROY

1. Prince Fielder 10 30 (4) .262/.342/.473, 15.0, 2.5, .273
2. Jeremy Hermida 7 27 (3) .252/.354/.427, 13.9, 3.8, .276
3. Ryan Zimmerman 6 26 (4) .279/.323/.441, 1.1, 4.0, .260
4. Matt Cain 5 14 (1) 155, 4.50, 11.5, 3.0
5. Josh Willingham 3 7 .245/.369/.452, 23.1, 3.6, .286
6. Josh Barfield 1 1 .255/.316/.404, 16.6, 3.7, .255
7. Conor Jackson 1 1 .263/.351/.427, 5.2, 2.1, .262
8. Ronny Cedeno 1 1 .266/.312/.372, 7.3, 2.7, .236
9. Chris Young 1 1 .251/.340/.443, 16.5, 4.0, .264
10. Anthony Reyes 1 1 141.7, 4.07, 18.5, 3.3

Individual Ballots

• Will Carroll
• Dan Fox
• Steven Goldman
• Kevin Goldstein
• Thomas Gorman
• Jay Jaffe
• Christina Kahrl
• Jonah Keri
• Dayn Perry
• Joe Sheehan
• Nate Silver
• Keith Woolner

Will Carroll

STANDINGS

NL EAST          NL CENTRAL          NL WEST
Braves           Cardinals           Giants
Mets (WC)        Brewers             Dodgers
Phillies         Astros              Padres
Marlins          Cubs                Diamondbacks
Nationals        Reds                Rockies
                 Pirates

Most Valuable Player

1. Albert Pujols
2. Ryan Howard
3. Carlos Delgado
4. Andrew Jones
5. Derrek Lee

Cy Young

1. Ben Sheets
2. Roy Oswalt
3. Mark Mulder

Rookie of the Year

1. Ryan Zimmerman
2. Jeremy Hermida
3. Prince Fielder

Dan Fox

STANDINGS

NL EAST         NL CENTRAL         NL WEST

Mets            Cardinals          Dodgers
Braves (WC)     Astros             Giants
Phillies        Brewers            Padres
Nats            Cubs               Diamondbacks
Marlins         Reds               Rockies
                Pirates

MVP

1. Albert Pujols
2. David Wright
3. Derrek Lee
4. Scott Rolen
5. Barry Bonds

CY

1. Carlos Zambrano
2. Jake Peavy
3. Eric Gagne

RoY

1. Ryan Zimmerman
2. Jeremy Hermida
3. Ronny Cedeno

Steven Goldman

STANDINGS

NL EAST           NL CENTRAL          NL WEST

Braves            Cardinals           Padres
Phillies (WC)     Brewers             Diamondbacks
Mets              Astros              Dodgers
Nats              Cubs                Giants
Marlins           Pirates             Rockies
                  Reds

MVP

1. Albert Pujols
2. David Wright
3. Chase Utley
4. Jason Bay
5. Derrek Lee

CY

1. Jake Peavy
2. Brandon Webb
3. Pedro Martinez

RoY

1. Jeremy Hermida
2. Prince Fielder
3. Matt Cain

Kevin Goldstein

STANDINGS

NL EAST          NL CENTRAL          NL WEST

Mets             Cardinals           Diamondbacks
Braves (WC)      Astros              Padres
Nats             Brewers             Dodgers
Phillies         Cubs                Giants
Marlins          Pirates             Rockies
                 Reds

MVP

1. Albert Pujols
2. David Wright
3. Andruw Jones
4. Derrek Lee
5. Miguel Cabrera

CY

1. Roy Oswalt
2. Pedro Martinez
3. Carlos Zambrano

RoY

1. Prince Fielder
2. Jeremy Hermida
3. Josh Barfield

Thomas Gorman

STANDINGS

NL EAST           NL CENTRAL          NL WEST

Mets              Cardinals           Dodgers
Braves (WC)       Brewers             Giants
Phillies          Astros              Diamondbacks
Nats              Cubs                Padres
Marlins           Pirates             Rockies
                  Reds

MVP

1. Albert Pujols
2. Barry Bonds
3. David Wright
4. Carlos Delgado
5. Jake Peavy

CY

1. Jake Peavy
2. Pedro Martinez
3. Ben Sheets

RoY

1. Matt Cain
2. Ryan Zimmerman
3. Prince Fielder

Jay Jaffe

STANDINGS

NL EAST          NL CENTRAL          NL WEST

Braves           Cardinals           Dodgers
Mets             Brewers (WC)        Padres
Phillies         Cubs                Diamondbacks
Nats             Astros              Giants
Marlins          Pirates             Rockies
                 Reds

MVP

1. Albert Pujols
2. David Wright
3. Miguel Cabrera
4. Ryan Howard
5. J.D. Drew

CY

1. Jake Peavy
2. Roy Oswalt
3. Dontrelle Willis

RoY

1. Prince Fielder
2. Ryan Zimmerman
3. Josh Willingham

Christina Kahrl

STANDINGS

NL EAST          NL CENTRAL          NL WEST

Mets             Cardinals           Dodgers
Braves (WC)      Brewers             Padres
Phillies         Astros              Diamondbacks
Nats             Pirates             Giants
Marlins          Cubs                Rockies
                 Reds

MVP

1. Albert Pujols
2. Carlos Beltran
3. David Wright
4. Brian Giles
5. J.D. Drew

CY

1. Jake Peavy
2. Pedro Martinez
3. Brandon Webb

RoY

1. Ryan Zimmerman
2. Matt Cain
3. Prince Fielder

Jonah Keri

STANDINGS

NL EAST          NL CENTRAL          NL WEST

Phillies         Cardinals           Dodgers
Braves (WC)      Astros              Padres
Mets             Brewers             Diamondbacks
Nats             Cubs                Giants
Marlins          Reds                Rockies
                 Pirates

MVP

1. Albert Pujols
2. Andruw Jones
3. Lance Berkman
4. Ryan Howard
5. Morgan Ensberg

CY

1. Jake Peavy
2. Eric Gagne
3. Roy Oswalt

RoY

1. Jeremy Hermida
2. Prince Fielder
3. Conor Jackson

Dayn Perry

STANDINGS

NL EAST          NL CENTRAL          NL WEST

Braves           Cardinals           Dodgers
Mets (WC)        Brewers             Padres
Phillies         Cubs                Giants
Nats             Astros              Diamondbacks
Marlins          Reds                Rockies
                 Pirates

MVP

1. Carlos Delgado
2. Albert Pujols
3. J.D. Drew
4. Andruw Jones
5. David Wright

CY

1. Jake Peavy
2. Chris Carpenter
3. Pedro Martinez

RoY

1. Prince Fielder
2. Josh Willingham
3. Anthony Reyes

Joe Sheehan

STANDINGS

NL EAST          NL CENTRAL          NL WEST

Braves           Cardinals           Dodgers
Mets (WC)        Cubs                Diamondbacks
Phillies         Brewers             Padres
Marlins          Reds                Giants
Nats             Astros              Rockies
                 Pirates

MVP

1. Albert Pujols
2. Carlos Beltran
3. Bobby Abreu
4. Jeff Kent
5. Adam Dunn

CY

1. Roy Oswalt
2. Jake Peavy
3. Brandon Webb

RoY

1. Jeremy Hermida
2. Matt Cain
3. Chris Young

Nate Silver

STANDINGS

NL EAST          NL CENTRAL          NL WEST

Mets             Cardinals           Dodgers
Braves           Brewers             Diamondbacks (WC)
Phillies         Pirates             Giants
Marlins          Cubs                Rockies
Nationals        Astros              Padres
                 Reds

MVP

1. David Wright
2. Barry Bonds
3. Albert Pujols
4. Jason Bay
5. J.D. Drew

CY

1. Brandon Webb
2. Jake Peavy
3. Zach Duke

RoY

1. Prince Fielder
2. Josh Willingham
3. Matt Cain

Keith Woolner

STANDINGS

NL EAST          NL CENTRAL          NL WEST

Braves           Brewers             Padres
Phillies (WC)    Astros              Giants
Mets             Cardinals           Dodgers
Nats             Cubs                Rockies
Marlins          Reds                Diamondbacks
                 Pirates

MVP

1. Chase Utley
2. Albert Pujols
3. David Wright
4. Adam Dunn
5. Barry Bonds

CY

1. Dontrelle Willis
2. Doug Davis
3. Jason Schmidt

RoY

1. Ryan Zimmerman
2. Jeremy Hermida
3. Prince Fielder