Prospectus Today: Chas... (08/17)
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August 17, 2005 Can Of CornThe Even Newer and More Improved Triple Crown
In last week's column, I proposed a revised hitter's Triple Crown, one that made notional improvements upon the current troika of batting average, home runs and RBI. I chose on-base percentage, slugging percentage and plate appearances as the components of the New and Improved Triple Crown (NITC). Well, the inclusion of plate appearances raised many a hackle among readers, and when that happens it's usually a sign I've fouled something up. I included plate appearances for two reasons: one, you need some sort of counting metric to balance out the rate stats, and, two, it's an indicator of health and durability, which are most assuredly vital skills. The problem, however, is that plate appearances are team- and batting order-dependent. Not to the degree of RBI, certainly, but they're nevertheless too mucked up by external factors to merit a place in the NITC. So mea darn culpa on that one, and thanks to all who helpfully called me on it. Anyhow, this week I've decided to revisit the NITC, this time as the Even Newer and More Improved Triple Crown (ENMITC). I've decided to retain the general design of the traditional Triple Crown (i.e., two counting stats and one rate stat), but flesh it out with statistics a far cry more evocative than AVG, HR and RBI. To do this, I'm going to use total bases, times on base and OPS. I'm not entirely fond of the lattermost metric, for reasons other than the fact that it's a mathematical non sequitur. However, OPS does have strong thumbnail value, and it's certainly superior to AVG, OBP or SLG in isolation. Total bases? It's a good indicator of power, and like all counting stats it contains an inherent measure of playing time. Times on base? A counting proxy for OBP. Well, it turns out the ENMITC rubric is a far more accommodating one than the short-lived NITC. Here's the list of hitters who've led their leagues in total bases (TB), times on base (TOB) and OPS since 1900:
Year Hitter Lg. TB TOB OPS 1901 Nap Lajoie AL 350 269 1.106 1906 George Stone AL 291 267 .918 1906 Honus Wagner NL 237 243 .875 1908 Honus Wagner NL 308 260 .957 1909 Ty Cobb AL 296 270 .947 1910 Sherry Magee NL 263 278 .952 1911 Ty Cobb AL 367 300 1.088 1913 Gavvy Cravath NL 298 237 .974 1914 Benny Kauff FL 305 291 .981 1915 Gavvy Cravath NL 266 241 .902 1915 Ty Cobb AL 274 336 .973 1917 Ty Cobb AL 335 290 1.014 1919 Babe Ruth AL 284 246 1.114 1920 Rogers Hornsby NL 329 281 .990 1921 Babe Ruth AL 457 353 1.359 1921 Rogers Hornsby NL 378 302 1.097 1922 Rogers Hornsby NL 450 316 1.181 1923 Babe Ruth AL 399 379 1.309 1924 Babe Ruth AL 391 346 1.252 1924 Rogers Hornsby NL 373 318 1.203 1926 Babe Ruth AL 365 331 1.253 1928 Babe Ruth AL 380 313 1.172 1932 Chuck Klein NL 420 287 1.050 1932 Jimmie Foxx AL 438 329 1.218 1933 Chuck Klein NL 365 280 1.025 1933 Jimmie Foxx AL 403 301 1.153 1934 Lou Gehrig AL 409 321 1.172 1938 Jimmie Foxx AL 398 316 1.166 1939 Johnny Mize NL 353 293 1.070 1940 Johnny Mize NL 368 269 1.039 1942 Ted Williams AL 338 335 1.147 1943 Stan Musial NL 347 294 .988 1945 Tommy Holmes NL 367 298 .997 1946 Stan Musial NL 366 304 1.021 1946 Ted Williams AL 343 334 1.164 1947 Ralph Kiner NL 361 277 1.055 1947 Ted Williams AL 335 345 1.133 1948 Stan Musial NL 429 312 1.152 1949 Ted Williams AL 368 358 1.141 1951 Ted Williams AL 295 313 1.019 1952 Stan Musial NL 311 292 .970 1953 Al Rosen AL 367 290 1.034 1956 Mickey Mantle AL 376 302 1.169 1963 Hank Aaron NL 370 279 .977 1966 Frank Robinson AL 367 279 1.047 1967 Carl Yastrzemski AL 360 284 1.040 1970 Carl Yastrzemski AL 335 315 1.044 1978 Jim Rice AL 406 276 .970 1981 Dwight Evans AL 215 208 .937 1981 Mike Schmidt NL 228 189 1.080 1994 Jeff Bagwell NL 300 216 1.201 As you can see, it's not all that uncommon of a feat; only 15 players have won the traditional Triple Crown, but transpose that figure into 51, and you'll have the number of batters who have won the ENMITC. Still, no one's pulled it off in a full season since Jim Rice in '78, and no NL hitter has claimed the full-season ENMITC since Hank Aaron in '63. It's also worth noting that, of the traditional Triple Crown winners since 1900, only Joe Medwick in 1937 and Rogers Hornsby in 1925 failed to also win the ENMITC during the same season. What might surprise some of you is that none of the recent Barry Bonds iterations has won the ENMITC. That's because his ridiculously inordinate walk totals have served as a drag on his total base tallies. For instance, here are his NL total base rankings since he began his perhaps fraudulent run of excellence in 2001:
Season NL rank in total bases 2001 3rd 2002 7th 2003 15th 2004 16th How is it possible, as Bonds did in 2004, to log a qualifying number of plate appearances, slug .812 and still finish outside the top 15 in total bases? Well, you'll have to walk 232 times. Anyhow, as the ENMITC races in 2005 go, it's possible we'll have winners in both leagues for the first time since 1947, when Ralph Kiner and Ted Williams roamed the earth. In the NL this season, Derrek Lee of the Cubs tops the loop in total bases and OPS, but he trails Albert Pujols by nine in times on base. Over in the junior circuit, Alex Rodriguez may be better positioned than Lee to win the ENMITC: he has a 36-point lead over Yankee label-mate Jason Giambi in OPS (yes, Jason Giambi, once hurtling fecklessly toward the Sarlacc that is Triple-A Columbus, is now second in the AL in OPS), leads Derek Jeter by 10 in times on base and trails the slumping Miguel Tejada by only four in total bases. In Lee's favor, however, is that he's on pace to become the first player since Stan Musial in 1948 to record at least 400 total bases and reach base at least 300 times in the same season. Of course, he could reach both of those milestones and still not win the ENMITC.
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