Under The Knife: Too M... (08/11)
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August 11, 2005 Crooked NumbersDo Not Pass Go, Do Not Collect $200
Three months ago, I took a look at the struggles of the A's, Indians and Pirates with regards to their complete and utter inability to get runners home once they'd put them on base, a light stat called runner scoring percentage. While the Indians' offensive struggles were more a result of overall struggles (they were batting .226/.296/.379 at the time and were plating a more respectable 35.4% of their baserunners), the A's and Pirates were plating a lower percentage of their runners on base than any team since 1990, and it wasn't particularly close. Games in the last few days have highlighted the dramatic offensive turnarounds in both Oakland and Cleveland. After dropping 27 runs on the Royals over the weekend, the A's were fourth in the AL in runs scored with 551 through Tuesday, a far cry from the 95 runs they totaled through the first month of the season. On Tuesday, eleven Indians crossed the plate in the ninth inning alone, vaulting the Tribe past the Royals and into the top half of teams in the AL in runs scored, fifth in Adjusted Equivalent Runs (AEQR). For the Bucs, things have been better, but not to the degree of their junior circuit brethren. With only 471 runs on the season, the Pirates have the second-worst total in NL (and the major leagues, but comparing them to a league with a DH doesn't tell us that much). Only the Cindarella-circa-11:58pm Washington Nationals have notched a lower total owing to their .252/.318/.385 team batting line, a performance only slightly behind the Pirates' .256/.319/.396. The Pirates would have to be transported back to 1992--back when Jose Lind (.235/.270/.269) and Jeff King (.231/.268/.371) held regular jobs in the Pirate infield--for their performance this year to be even league average. Still, considering the Pittsburgh nine had only mustered 79 runs through the season's first month, the fact that they're not stuck under 400 runs should be seen as some slight improvement. Let's take a look at how things have changed since we last visited MLB's more inept bats. This time, rather than looking at simply runs scored as a percentage of runs plus runners left on base, we'll add home runs into the equation, subtracted from both the numerator--now R-HR--and the denominator--LOB+R-HR. This update doesn't change the historical ineptitude of our three sample offenses, but it does give us a slightly better idea of which offenses are failing at driving runners home as opposed to simply failing to get them on base in the first place. Here's what we get:
TEAM LOB R HR R% MayR% Change ---- --- --- --- ----- ----- ----- ANA 729 527 99 37.0% 37.6% -0.6% CHA 683 540 143 36.8% 35.4% 1.4% TOR 786 554 103 36.5% 35.6% 0.9% SLN 798 582 127 36.3% 32.7% 3.6% BOS 885 628 133 35.9% 36.7% -0.8% TBA 760 526 105 35.6% 35.6% 0.0% TEX 787 621 189 35.4% 34.5% 0.9% OAK 828 553 99 35.4% 27.2% 8.2% KCA 728 485 91 35.1% 29.2% 5.9% DET 773 516 101 34.9% 40.1% -5.2% SEA 734 485 92 34.9% 35.2% -0.3% CIN 798 577 157 34.5% 31.0% 3.5% ATL 778 535 126 34.5% 33.1% 1.4% NYA 867 601 157 33.9% 33.4% 0.5% FLO 815 511 94 33.8% 38.9% -5.1% NYN 775 512 116 33.8% 32.9% 0.9% SFN 764 473 84 33.7% 35.6% -1.9% MIN 784 495 99 33.6% 34.2% -0.6% CLE 799 529 129 33.4% 27.9% 5.5% MIL 793 518 128 33.0% 34.8% -1.8% HOU 767 481 109 32.7% 32.9% -0.2% BAL 777 524 148 32.6% 36.5% -3.9% COL 824 503 106 32.5% 34.5% -2.0% PHI 865 525 111 32.4% 30.4% 2.0% PIT 803 471 92 32.1% 25.8% 6.3% LAN 791 485 112 32.0% 34.6% -2.6% SDN 846 495 99 31.9% 29.3% 2.6% CHN 786 501 138 31.6% 33.1% -1.5% WAS 792 431 81 30.6% 31.6% -1.0% ARI 888 498 132 29.2% 31.3% -2.1% As we would expect going from a small sample size (games through May 3) to a large one (through Tuesday), the range of values shrinks dramatically, from 14.3% to 7.8%. Those outliers we saw in May--Oakland, Pittsburgh, and Cleveland as well as San Diego and Kansas City on the low end; Detroit and Florida on the high end--have all moved towards the middle of the pack, reversing their earlier trends. While regression to the mean is a nice explanation, we can look at a few example teams to discern other possible reasons behind the change. The A's, for example, spent the first two months of the season without shortstop Bobby Crosby or new first baseman Dan Johnson who are hitting .293/.362/.459 and .322/.407/.543 on the season. Replacing Erubiel Durazo (.237/.305/.368) and taking PAs away from Marco Scutaro (.244/.312/.363) and Mark Ellis (.303/.356/.418), Crosby and Johnson possess the slugging percentage that the A's sorely lacked in the season's first month. With the new power bats--as well as newly acquired Jay Payton who's slugging .536 since coming over from Boston--the A's went from hitting .239/.312/.340 as a team to .276/.345/.430. Their walk rate remained almost exactly the same, but their noticeable increase in batting average and slugging was the key to their turnaround. Likewise, the Indians have batted .279/.340/.453 since May 3 as opposed to .227/.297/.380 before. Again, their walk rate is almost identical while most of their gains have come in the batting average department with an additional boost in isolated power (ISO). As opposed to the A's shuffling their roster, the Indians' success was more a result of many players underperforming their established levels of production turning things around. Victor Martinez (.198/.275/.308 before, .302/.381/.493 after), Grady Sizemore (.238/.274/.388, .294/.356/.486), and Coco Crisp (.252/.304/.346, .310/.357/.484) were the biggest culprits. In Pittsburgh? Same story, .232/.301/.362 before, .263/.327/.406 after; note that the Pirates' gains are significantly smaller than those of the Indians or Athletics, as is their improvement in their percentage of base runners plated. The Pirates have had to battle through the absence of Craig Wilson (.292/.427/.375 before) and Benito Santiago (though perhaps "battle through" isn't quite appropriate to a player hitting .261/.261/.391). Jack Wilson (.165/.191/.231, .252/.302/.377) has rebounded from a terrible April to compliment the increase in power from Jason Bay, Rob Mackowiak, and the recently departed Matt Lawton to help the Pirates pull out of the cellar with regards to their runner scoring percentage. The division, however, is another matter. So what can we expect as the season moves into the final two months? Let's look at the same list but with teams' batting stats and the projected runner scoring percentage (based on a regression on those stats for all teams from 1972-2005).
TEAM R% AVG OBP SLG Proj Trend ---- ----- --- --- --- ----- ----- ANA 37.0% .268 .321 .408 34.0% -3.0% CHA 36.8% .262 .322 .425 33.6% -3.2% TOR 36.5% .272 .336 .421 34.6% -1.9% SLN 36.3% .271 .338 .433 34.7% -1.6% BOS 35.9% .282 .360 .453 36.3% 0.4% TBA 35.6% .276 .330 .424 35.1% -0.5% TEX 35.4% .272 .335 .477 35.5% 0.1% OAK 35.4% .267 .336 .409 33.9% -1.5% KCA 35.1% .261 .316 .400 33.1% -2.0% DET 34.9% .274 .325 .423 34.9% 0.0% SEA 34.9% .257 .313 .393 32.5% -2.4% CIN 34.5% .263 .335 .454 34.2% -0.3% ATL 34.5% .266 .328 .436 34.2% -0.3% NYA 33.9% .274 .352 .450 35.4% 1.5% FLO 33.8% .276 .335 .418 35.0% 1.2% NYN 33.8% .262 .321 .417 33.5% -0.3% SFN 33.7% .266 .321 .397 33.6% -0.1% MIN 33.6% .260 .324 .398 33.0% -0.6% CLE 33.4% .268 .329 .437 34.4% 1.0% MIL 33.0% .259 .328 .424 33.3% 0.3% HOU 32.7% .256 .317 .410 32.7% 0.0% BAL 32.6% .275 .330 .456 35.5% 2.9% COL 32.5% .266 .327 .413 33.9% 1.4% PHI 32.4% .267 .341 .412 33.9% 1.5% PIT 32.1% .256 .319 .396 32.5% 0.4% LAN 32.0% .258 .324 .404 32.9% 0.9% SDN 31.9% .262 .333 .402 33.2% 1.3% CHN 31.6% .271 .322 .444 34.8% 3.2% WAS 30.6% .252 .318 .385 31.9% 1.3% ARI 29.2% .259 .330 .424 33.3% 4.1% The A's have turned things around so much that they're actually outperforming projected runner scoring percentage based on their composite hitting stats. We should expect them to plate about 33.9% of their runners for the rest of the season, as opposed to their current rate of 35.4%, if their hitting continues at its current pace. On the other hand, the Indians and Pirates are still short of their projected rates and should be expected to continue to improve. Interestingly, the Diamondbacks are underperforming their expected runner scoring percentage by a higher percentage than any team since 1972. If anybody should be expected to turn things around in the season's final two months, it's the Arizona offense. As mentioned, it would be easy to say that the turnaround of the A's, Pirates, and Indians in runner scoring percentage was inevitable and while some turnaround was very likely, the impressive turnaround of the A's and Indians in particular is significantly more than could have been expected back in early May. While most of their offensive turnaround can be attributed to the individual performances of the players on the field, the turnaround in their ability to plate those runners they're putting on the bases certainly didn't hurt things.
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