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April 19, 2005

Prospectus Hit List

Week of April 17, 2005

by Jay Jaffe

Rk Team
Overall W-L
Week W-L
Trend
Comment
1 Dodgers
9-2
5-0
Up
Majors' most potent offense, thanks especially to Jeff Kent (.415/.529/.829/4 HR), who's scored in 10 straight games. Weekend shutouts from Derek Lowe and Jeff Weaver mean everything's coming up blue on the other side of the ball as well.
2 Marlins
6-6
3-3
Down
Team ERA (1.61) is still tops in majors, more than a run better than #2. Back-to back-shutouts from Dontrelle Willis averaged a tidy 105.5 pitches.
3 Twins
8-4
5-1
Up
Fill-ins Terry Tiffee and Dave Gassner came up big replacing injured cogs Justin Morneau and Carlos Silva; the former hit a homer in first game up from minors, while the latter pitched six strong innings and got the win in his debut.
4 Blue Jays
8-5
4-3
Up
Meet Gustavo Chacin: 24-year-old lefty with wins in his first three starts, 1.42 ERA in 19 IP. Spent five years in Double-A Eastern League before escaping via cut fastball (a/k/a the Sturtze Gambit).
5 Astros
5-6
1-5
Up
Stat line doubletake of the week: Jason Lane (.326/.319/.739).
6 Orioles
8-4
5-1
Up
Brian Roberts leads majors in EqA (.443) and RARP (14.4), heading up a potent offense that punished Yanks by a collective score of 23-11 this weekend.
7 Nationals
8-4
5-1
Up
Winners of five straight. Vinny Castilla (.429/.487/.857) and Jose Guillen (.327/.346/.714) making Jim Bowden look pretty smart...for now. But Frank Robinson knows that "numbers don't win you ballgames."
8 White Sox
8-4
4-2
Up
Rotation continues to be impressive, with a 3.16 ERA in nearly seven innings per start. Paul Konerko leads majors with six home runs.
9 Giants
6-5
2-3
Up
Barely missing Barry (and Moises): outfield hitting a combined .299/.347/.540 with nine homers, including three grand slams.
10 Red Sox
7-5
5-1
Up
Sweet week (ring ceremony, series win over Yanks) slightly overshadowed by Fenway fan flap with Gary Sheffield.
11 Mets
6-6
5-1
Up
Clawed their way back to .500 in a hurry. Pedro Martinez (2.45 ERA, 12.3 K/9) is looking like the model in the catalog. Note to Willie: get Jose Reyes (.278 OBP, 0 BB) out of the leadoff spot.
12 Mariners
6-6
4-2
Up
Ichiro is second in AL EqA (.390) and on a 284-hit pace. Richie Sexson's bat is healthy (.265/.342/.647), but he's missed three straight with flu.
13 Tigers
5-7
2-4
Down
Jeremy Bonderman: two good starts against Royals, who won't compete, but roughed up by Indians, who will. Meanwhile Magglio Ordonez's ill fortune continues with hernia.
14 Brewers
5-6
2-4
Down
Biggest win of the week: locking up Ben Sheets for four years, $38.5 million. Thank heavens for insurance.
15 Indians
5-7
2-4
Up
Anemic offense (.219/.294/.362) has team below .500 despite 3.82 ERA.
16 Rangers
6-7
3-4
Up
Though he's yet to win a game, Pedro Astacio (2.57 ERA, 7.1 K/9 in 14 innings) has looked very promising.
17 Phillies
6-6
3-3
Down
Brett Myers breaking out? One ER in 20.2 innings, 20:2 K/BB ratio.
18 Cubs
6-6
3-3
Down
We're through the looking glass: Nomar Garciaparra (.145 EqA) off to a frigid start, but Neifi Perez (.332 EqA) is en fuego.
19 Diamondbacks
6-6
3-3
Up
Javier Vazquez: 11.77 ERA in 13 innings pitched. Other starters (Russ Ortiz, Shawn Estes, Brad Halsey, Brandon Webb): 3.25 ERA in 55.1 innings pitched.
20 Braves
6-6
2-4
Up
Chipper Jones: .348/.434/.630. Rest of team: .234/.288/.360. This is what happens when Brian Jordan and Raul Mondesi both get to play.
21 A's
6-6
3-3
Down
Moribund offense is last in EqA, with Eric Chavez (.223), Jason Kendall (.205) and Erubiel Durazo (.112) the worst offenders.
22 Angels
6-6
3-3
Down
Clues That Your Sample Size Is Too Small, 238: when Ben Molina (.336) leads your team in EqA.
23 Padres
5-7
2-4
Down
It's not easy being Khalil Greene: Padre SS heads to DL with another broken finger.
24 Cardinals
6-4
4-1
Up
Offense still stuck in first gear (.220/.283/.396). Mark Mulder: 8.18 ERA with 2.18 WHIP.
25 Reds
6-5
3-2
Down
Joe Randa (.385/.478/.769/4 HR) already halfway to last season's homer output.
26 Devil Rays
4-8
1-5
Down
Thank you for retiring, Roberto Alomar: 2B Jorge Cantu hitting .313/.320/.563. Survived "loss" of Alex Sanchez to steroids suspension.
27 Yankees
4-8
1-5
Down
Swept by O's while still smarting from Sox smackdown. It took Mount Steinbrenner this long to erupt? Team DER of .647 is 2nd-worst in all of MLB.
28 Royals
4-8
1-5
Down
Zack Greinke's six scoreless innings aside, latest turn through the rotation not so successful (18 ER in 23 IP). Royally screwed if their pitching bubble bursts.
29 Pirates
4-8
2-4
Up
Buried, perhaps, but no treasure. Oliver Perez has a 9.60 ERA in 15 innings, and team brass is upset he didn't follow offseason throwing program. Craig Wilson and Jack Wilson are hitting a combined .232/.320/.244.
30 Rockies
2-9
1-5
Down
No, that's not a new Boeing model; 7.84 ERA is, you guessed it, worst in majors. On the positive side, SS Clint Barmes (.395/.447/.744/4 HR) has started hot.

The Prospectus Hit List rankings are derived from Won-Loss records and several measurements pertaining to run differentials, both actual and adjusted, from Baseball Prospectus Adjusted Standings through the close of play on every Sunday.

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