April 1, 2005

Preseason Predictions

NL Staff Picks, 2005

by Baseball Prospectus

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Yesterday we started our prediction miniseries with a look at the American League. Today we unveil our National League and World Series picks.

Each author's ballot may be found later in the article. Here, we neatly summarize the results. In each division standings table you'll find the average rank of the team, plus the standard deviation. The lower the standard deviation, the more in agreement the authors were about that team's place in the division standings. In our AL column, the Royals had a standard deviation of 0, meaning that all authors agreed they would finish last. We have similar consensus with the old/new Washington Nationals, also picked to finish last across the board. Such agreement is rare around here, and obviously means that both the Royals and Nationals will finish third in their respective divisions.

It's worth noting that the standard deviations are much higher in the NL than in the AL, particularly in the NL East, where each contending team has about the same chance of winning the division as finishing fourth. This plays out in our wildly dissimilar predictions for that division, as our authors think that the Braves, Mets, Phillies and Marlins could all be printing World Series tickets this year.

Standings:

NL EAST

Team                      Average    Std. Dev.

Philadelphia Phillies      1.83        1.1
Atlanta Braves             2.08         .97
New York Mets              2.92        1.08
Florida Marlins            3.97         .83
Washington Nationals       5            0

NL CENTRAL

Team                      Average    Std. Dev.

St. Louis Cardinals        1.25         .45
Chicago Cubs               1.83         .57
Milwaukee Brewers          3.91         .99
Houston Astros             4.08        1.08
Cincinnati Reds            4.25        1.05
Pittsburgh Pirates         5.67         .65

NL WEST

Team                      Average    Std. Dev.

Los Angeles Dodgers        1.33         .65
San Diego Padres           1.83         .39
San Francisco Giants       3.17         .94
Arizona Diamondbacks       4.17         .71
Colorado Rockies           4.5          .67

World Series Predictions

Author               Winner        Loser
----------------------------------------
Will Carroll         Red Sox       Cubs
James Click          Braves        Red Sox
Clay Davenport       Yankees       Cubs
Jay Jaffe            Cardinals     Twins
Rany Jazayerli       A's           Phillies
Chris Kahrl          Dodgers       ----
Jonah Keri           Red Sox       Marlins
Dave Kirsch          Braves        Red Sox
Dayn Perry           Red Sox       Phillies
Joe Sheehan          Twins         Mets
Nate Silver          Red Sox       Phillies
Keith Woolner        Red Sox       Dodgers

Individual Awards:

For the MVP voting, we've kept the traditional points system in place that's been used elsewhere: 10-7-5-3-1 for the MVP Award, and 5-3-1 for the Cy Young and Rookie of the Year Awards (that's 10 points for a first place vote, 7 for a second place vote, etc). The projected statistics appearing after each player's name are their baseline PECOTA forecasts.

Legend:

• Hitters: Ballots, Points, (1st Place Votes), AVG/OBP/SLG, VORP, WARP, EqA
• Pitchers: Ballots, Points, (1st Place Votes), IP, ERA, VORP, WARP

NL MVP

1. Albert Pujols 11 104 (9) .336/.419/.637, 84.9, 11.9, .360
2. Carlos Beltran 4 35 (3) .277/.372/.505, 46.9, 7.9, .309
3. Bobby Abreu 7 33 .298/.411/.524, 51.6, 8.0, .322
4. Miguel Cabrera 5 25 .293/.357/.524, 41.4, 7.2, .304
5. Jim Thome 3 21 .271/.393/.578, 44.3, 5.5, .323
6. Barry Bonds 3 15 .324/.514/.658, 72.7, 9.0, .400
7. Adam Dunn 3 13 .270/.395/.565, 39.9, 6.2, .321
8. Scott Rolen 3 11 .290/.383/.541, 44.7, 8.1, .317
9. J.D. Drew 4 10 .278/.388/.513, 39.9, 6.6, .315
10. Lance Berkman 1 7 .288/.404/.536, 43.1, 7.0, .318
11. Aramis Ramirez 1 7 .274/.333/.491, 21.1, 4.8, .280
12. Nomar Garciaparra 3 5 .289/.342/.478, 31.7, 5.2, .281
13. Chipper Jones 1 5 .275/.379/.487, 26.6, 4.9, .302
14. Jim Edmonds 2 4 .285/.391/.587, 49.2, 7.6, .329
15. Carlos Delgado 1 3 .271/.393/.521, 41.0, 6.1, .318
16. Marcus Giles 1 3 .283/.358/.451, 30.9, 6.2, .286
17. Troy Glaus 1 3 .276/.384/.570, 30.9, 4.6, .314
18. Derrek Lee 1 2 .273/.365/.505, 30.0, 5.5, .298
19. Jason Bay 1 1 .273/.368/.507, 27.2, 5.5, .302
20. Todd Helton 1 1 .330/.435/.583, 50.3, 8.5, .325

NL Cy Young

1. Ben Sheets 10 27 (3) 218.0, 3.11, 57.7, 8.4
2. Pedro Martinez 6 22 (3) 193.7, 3.06, 49.2, 7.2
3. Josh Beckett 4 12 (1) 162.0, 3.51, 30.9, 5.0
4. Tim Hudson 3 11 (1) 172.7, 3.55, 33.1, 5.4
5. Jason Schmidt 4 10 (1) 211.0, 3.06, 53.4, 7.7
6. Jake Peavy 5 9 153.0, 3.78, 21.4, 4.0
7. Roy Oswalt 2 6 (1) 200.3, 3.72, 39.8, 6.3
8. Mark Mulder 1 5 (1) 182.3, 3.80, 29.2, 4.8
9. Mark Prior 1 5 (1) 161.7, 3.24, 40.7, 5.9

1. Jeff Francis 6 18 (2) 114.3, 5.00, 15.8, 3.0
2. Gavin Floyd 5 17 (1) 98.0, 4.77, 6.4, 1.7
3. J.J. Hardy 5 13 (1) .257/.315/.423, 9.8, 2.7, .256
4. Garrett Atkins 4 12 (2) .284/.349/.459, 2.5, 1.5, .261
5. Chris Burke 3 9 (1) .267/.338/.392, 5.5, 1.7, .258
6. Andy Marte 3 7 (1) .253/.335/.466, 11.3, 2.9, .278
7. Clint Barmes 2 6 (1) .268/.309/.421, .7, 1.7, .234
8. Edwin Jackson 2 6 (1) 80.0, 4.58, 3.9, 1.3
9. Jason DuBois 1 5 (1) .255/.332/.473, 5.9, 1.7
10. Yusmeiro Petit 1 5 (1) 105.3, 3.31, 23.5, 3.6
11. Ezequiel Astacio 1 3 82.3, 4.67, 7.2, 1.7
12. Kyle Davies 1 3 81.7, 4.60, 6.1, 1.6
13. Conor Jackson 1 3 .249/.319/.414, -3.2, 1.2, .251
14. Prince Fielder 1 1 .251/.340/.443, 8.3, 1.5, .273

Individual Ballots

• Will Carroll
• James Click
• Clay Davenport
• Jay Jaffe
• Rany Jazayerli
• Chris Kahrl
• Jonah Keri
• Dave Kirsch
• Dayn Perry
• Joe Sheehan
• Nate Silver
• Keith Woolner

STANDINGS

NL EAST          NL CENTRAL          NL WEST
Braves           Cardinals           Giants
Mets             Cubs (WC)           Padres
Phillies         Brewers             Dodgers
Marlins          Astros              Diamondbacks
Nationals        Reds                Rockies
                 Pirates

Most Valuable Player

1. Albert Pujols
2. Barry Bonds
3. Carlos Beltran
4. Adam Dunn
5. Jason Bay

1. Mark Prior
2. Ben Sheets
3. Jason Schmidt

1. Andy Marte
2. Gavin Floyd
3. Prince Fielder

James Click

STANDINGS

NL EAST         NL CENTRAL         NL WEST

Phillies        Cardinals          Dodgers
Braves (WC)     Cubs               Padres
Marlins         Brewers            Giants
Mets            Astros             Diamondbacks
Nats            Reds               Rockies
                Pirates

MVP

1. Albert Pujols
2. Bobby Abreu
3. Barry Bonds
4. J.D. Drew
5. Scott Rolen

1. Tim Hudson
2. Pedro Martinez
3. Ben Sheets

1. Edwin Jackson
2. Conor Jackson
3. Garrett Atkins

Clay Davenport

STANDINGS

NL EAST          NL CENTRAL          NL WEST

Phillies         Cubs                Padres
Atlanta          Cardinals (WC)      Dodgers
Mets             Astros              Giants
Marlins          Brewers             Rockies
Nationals        Pirates             Diamondbacks
                 Reds

MVP

1. Albert Pujols
2. Aramis Ramirez
3. Miguel Cabrera
4. Troy Glaus
5. Todd Helton

1. Josh Beckett
2. Tim Hudson
3. Ben Sheets

1. Garrett Atkins
2. Gavin Floyd
3. Jeff Francis

STANDINGS

NL EAST          NL CENTRAL          NL WEST

Braves           Cardinals           Dodgers
Marlins (WC)     Cubs                Padres
Phillies         Astros              Giants
Mets             Brewers             Rockies
Nationals        Reds                Diamondbacks
                 Pirates

MVP

1. Albert Pujols
2. Bobby Abreu
3. Miguel Cabrera
4. Barry Bonds
5. J.D. Drew

1. Roy Oswalt
2. Ben Sheets
3. Jake Peavy

1. J.J. Hardy
2. Jeff Francis
3. Edwin Jackson

STANDINGS

NL EAST          NL CENTRAL          NL WEST

Phillies         Cubs                Dodgers
Mets (WC)        Cardinals           Padres
Braves           Brewers             Giants
Marlins          Reds                Diamondbacks
Nationals        Astros              Rockies
                 Pirates

MVP

1. Carlos Beltran
2. Bobby Abreu
3. Adam Dunn
4. Nomar Garciaparra
5. Derrek Lee

1. Ben Sheets
2. Pedro Martinez
3. Josh Beckett

1. Gavin Floyd
2. J.J. Hardy
3. Jeff Francis

Chris Kahrl

STANDINGS

NL EAST           NL CENTRAL          NL WEST

Braves            Cardinals           Dodgers
Mets              Reds                Padres (WC)
Marlins           Cubs                Diamondbacks
Phillies          Pirates             Giants
Los Nationales    Brewers             Rockies
                  Astros

MVP

1. Carlos Beltran
2. Albert Pujols
3. Chipper Jones

1. Mark Mulder
2. Ben Sheets
3. Jake Peavy

1. Jeff Francis
2. Gavin Floyd
3. J.J. Hardy

STANDINGS

NL EAST          NL CENTRAL          NL WEST

Phillies         Cardinals           Dodgers
Marlins (WC)     Cubs                Padres
Braves           Astros              Giants
Mets             Brewers             Diamondbacks
Nats             Reds                Rockies
                 Pirates

MVP

1. Albert Pujols
2. Jim Thome
3. Bobby Abreu
4. Miguel Cabrera
5. J.D. Drew

1. Jason Schmidt
2. Josh Beckett
3. Pedro Martinez

1. Garrett Atkins
2. Kyle Davies
3. J.J. Hardy

NL EAST          NL CENTRAL          NL WEST

Braves           Cardinals           Dodgers
Mets (WC)        Cubs                Padres
Phillies         Astros              Rockies
Marlins          Reds                Giants
Nationals        Brewers             Diamondbacks
                 Pirates

Dayn Perry

STANDINGS

NL EAST          NL CENTRAL          NL WEST

Phillies         Cardinals           Padres
Braves           Cubs (WC)           Dodgers
Marlins          Brewers             Giants
Mets             Reds                Diamondbacks
Nationals        Astros              Rockies
                 Pirates

MVP

1. Albert Pujols
2. Jim Thome
3. Scott Rolen
4. Carlos Delgado
5. Bobby Abreu

1. Ben Sheets
2. Josh Beckett
3. Jake Peavy

1. Chris Burke
2. J.J. Hardy
3. Garrett Atkins

Joe Sheehan

STANDINGS

NL EAST          NL CENTRAL          NL WEST

Mets             Cubs                Dodgers
Phillies         Cardinals (WC)      Padres
Marlins          Reds                Giants
Braves           Brewers             Diamondbacks
Nationals        Astros              Rockies
                 Pirates

MVP

1. Carlos Beltran
2. Albert Pujols
3. Scott Rolen
4. Bobby Abreu
5. Nomar Garciaparra

1. Pedro Martinez
2. Tim Hudson
3. Jason Schmidt

1. Jason DuBois
2. Ezequiel Astacio
3. Andy Marte

Nate Silver

STANDINGS

NL EAST          NL CENTRAL          NL WEST

Phillies         Cardinals           Dodgers
Braves           Cubs (WC)           Padres
Mets             Brewers             Diamondbacks
Marlins          Reds                Rockies
Nationals        Astros              Giants
                 Pirates

MVP

1. Albert Pujols
2. Jim Thome
3. J.D. Drew
4. Jim Edmonds
5. Derrek Lee

1. Pedro Martinez
2. Jason Schmidt
3. Ben Sheets

1. Clint Barmes
2. Jeff Francis
3. Andy Marte

Keith Woolner

STANDINGS

NL EAST          NL CENTRAL          NL WEST

Phillies         Cardinals           Dodgers
Marlins (WC)     Cubs                Giants
Braves           Astros              Padres
Mets             Reds                Rockies
Nationals        Pirates             Diamondbacks
                 Brewers