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January 17, 2005
Prospectus Triple Play
Atlanta Braves, Tampa Bay Devil Rays, Toronto Blue Jays
by Baseball Prospectus
- A Braves New World: Back in the day, there was a rotation of Greg Maddux, John Smoltz, Tom Glavine, Steve Avery, Denny Neagle and Kevin Millwood. Let's look at the run for Braves' starters from 1996 to 1999 (100 innings pitched cutoff)
Year Maddux Smoltz Glavine Avery Neagle Millwood Total VORP
1996 72.8 70.4 60.5 14.4 218.1
1997 89.0 64.8 65.7 60.4 279.9
1998 83.3 47.7 77.6 41.6 23.9 274.1
1999 47.7 58.0 45.7 76.6 228.0
To put things in perspective: in 2003, Tim Hudson led major league baseball with a 78.5 VORP. In 2004, it was Johan Santana with a 88.8 VORP and Curt Schilling second with a 72.9 VORP. Early 2005 PECOTA estimates show Santana and Randy Johnson the leaders in projected VORP at 63.6 and 63.2, respectively. The Braves rotation in 1997 averaged better than what we expect from Santana and the Big Unit this season. As a group, they almost kept pace on an overall basis with Hudson's 2003 or Schilling's 2004.
That's a pretty nice run of pitching, ranking up there with the best staffs of all time. It would be unfair, of course, to expect the same out of the current Braves' rotation. So what can we expect, given that Bobby Cox & Leo Mazzone continue to work magic with their mirrors and fool the best of us every year? First, last season ...
Year Wright Thomson Ortiz Hampton Byrd Total VORP
2004 40.3 34.0 33.1 24.4 16.2 148.0
The total VORP comes out all right, perhaps largely due to the magic of Leo Mazzone. Jaret Wright almost doubled his previous best performance, a 25.3 VORP all the way back in 1998. John Thomson, a more useful pitcher than many realize, had his best season, according to VORP, in 2004. Russ Ortiz had his second best season, following his fortunate 2001. Mike Hampton, while not the pitcher he was pre-2001, continued his recovery from Coors Field and posted a similar campaign to 2003. Finally, Paul Byrd, fresh off Tommy John surgery, pitched better than anyone could have hoped.
Year Hudson Thomson Hampton Smoltz Ramirez Total VORP
2005 31.8 16.3 9.5 20.8 7.4 85.8
It's nice that they've been able to add Hudson to the rotation, but it's not like they're trying to corner the market on pitching a la George Steinbrenner. If Mazzone can keep everyone outperforming expectations and work a young pitcher into the rotation, perhaps we'll have to start campaigning to get a pitching coach in the Hall of Fame.
With that in mind, the 2005 Braves probably need to lean on their hitting to keep their run of 13 consecutive divisional titles alive. The only problem is, they've lost their best hitter from last year, with J.D. Drew defecting to the Dodgers. That's left a huge hole in their outfield, and John Schuerholz can only juggle from Ryan Klesko to Brian Jordan to Gary Sheffield to J.D. Drew so many times. At some point, the answer needs to come from within...which leads us to:
- Top 50 Prospects: The Braves have three strong candidates for this year's Top 50, which will be announced in February.
- Andy Marte. At first glance, some might be disappointed in Marte's 2004. After all, he didn't destroy Double-A pitching the way Miguel Cabrera did in 2003. Very few people will do that, so it shouldn't take any shine off his star. He's all of 21 years young, defensive reports on his work at third base are good and he more than held his own at Double-A.
What does PECOTA see for Marte? Let's look, along with last year's numbers.
Year Lvl G AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS VORP
2004 Rook 3 15 7 4 0 1 2 2 0 0 .467 .529 .933 1462
2004 AA 107 387 104 28 1 23 58 105 1 1 .269 .364 .525 889
2005 PECOTA 324 85 18 1 16 42 82 1 0 .263 .348 .479 827 19.3
If Marte sticks out of training camp and racks up, say, 550 at-bats, he projects to a VORP of around 32.8. That would be third on the Braves, behind Andruw Jones and Marcus Giles. The usual caveats for young players apply; that said, there's really not any reason not to like Marte. Rookie of the Year, anyone?
- Jeff Francoeur. Francoeur has always been highly regarded in terms of his physical prowess and abilities on the field; the key is translating that to performance. It's started to come, but it's not quite there yet. He'll be 21 this season, so he has time to develop. Francoeur must improve the plate discipline; it's deteriorated as he's moved up the ladder, and major-league pitchers will eat him alive if he can't lay off marginal pitches.
Year Lvl G AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS VORP
2004 A 87 331 97 26 0 15 22 69 10 6 .293 .346 .508 854
2004 AA 18 76 15 2 0 3 0 14 1 0 .197 .197 .342 539
2005 PECOTA 392 99 21 2 14 18 83 6 2 .251 .291 .426 717 1.2
He's not quite ready, but an interesting project nonetheless. As an outfielder, he'll have to hit well if he's going to make it. Expect Francoeur to wind up around the middle of the pack in the Top 50.
- Brian McCann. McCann is more of a long-term prospect, someone with a significant upside down the road. He held his own as a 20-year-old catcher in Myrtle Beach, a place notorious for being death on hitters. Let's look at his numbers along with another player from 1991, also a catching prospect at Myrtle Beach:
Year Lvl G AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS VORP
2004 A+ 110 382 106 35 0 15 31 54 2 2 .277 .337 .487 824
1991* A- 132 441 126 18 2 18 75 97 9 ? .286 .390 .458 848
2005 PECOTA 342 85 20 2 11 20 64 1 1 .248 .291 .413 704 2.4
Let's watch what McCann does this year. He may move up the ladder quite a bit by next season; for now, expect him towards the back end of the top 50.
By the way, that season with an asterisk above? It's Carlos Delgado's 1991 season at Myrtle Beach at 19 years of age. He seems to have turned out all right.
- New Life for Faded Prospects?: It wasn't that long ago that Josh Phelps graced our cover. (The 2003 edition of Baseball Prospectus, in case you're wondering.) He had mashed his way into our hearts, but the league caught up with him. Similarly, Brandon Larson seemed to have a world of hope a couple years ago with the Cincinnati Reds.
Of all teams, curiously the Devil Rays have made a couple of low-risk signings that may pay off in spades. In addition, they may have the right manager to turn them around. For all his faults, Lou Piniella has done the most good with hitters, especially power hitters who haven't quite hit their stride. Chris Sabo, Bret Boone, Mike Pagliarulo, Paul Sorrento and Jay Buhner all seemed to have been positively influenced by Piniella.
Let's look at Larson first. He's continued to mash in Triple-A (OPSes of 1060, 1001 and 871) the last three seasons. PECOTA likes him, but that hasn't yet translated into results in the majors. The risk is that Larson gets labeled a Quadruple-A player and follows the Russ Branyan career path, or worse. Some of his woes may be explained away by nagging injuries; at this point, Larson's window of opportunity is closing. Let's look at his PECOTA projected numbers versus actuals since 2003:
Year G AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS VORP
2003 PECOTA 248 62 13 1 12 19 68 2 2 .251 .310 .456 766 14.6
2003 ActCIN 32 89 9 1 0 1 13 31 2 2 .101 .212 .146 358 -11.9
2004 PECOTA 265 68 15 1 14 25 67 3 1 .257 .325 .474 799 16.5
2004 ActCIN 40 118 25 6 0 3 14 35 1 0 .212 .304 .339 643 -1.1
2005 PECOTA 262 68 13 1 15 25 78 2 0 .258 .326 .481 807 11.6
Larson has been a huge underachiever to date, and as such is a solid low-risk proposition by the Devil Rays. If he doesn't work, he can be cast aside without losing much. If he does work out, they've found a nice power hitter for little investment. He's not likely to be with the Devil Rays the next time (if ever?) they win anything, but he could certainly make for some nice swag at the trading deadline.
Now, on to Phelps. Poster boy in 2003, only to be moved in 2004 for a potentially useful career minor leaguer in Eric Crozier. Crozier's PECOTA projection is for a VORP of 14.7 in 236 at bats in 2005.
Year G AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS VORP
2003 PECOTA 393 100 23 1 25 42 120 2 2 .255 .334 .508 842 30.6
2003 ActTOR 119 396 106 18 1 20 39 115 1 2 .268 .358 .470 828 23.7
2004 PECOTA 395 107 23 1 24 43 105 2 1 .272 .355 .520 875 27.4
2004 ActTOR 79 295 70 13 2 12 18 73 0 0 .237 .296 .417 713 2.3
2004 ActCLE 24 76 23 6 0 5 4 20 0 0 .303 .338 .579 917 7.5
2005 PECOTA 401 107 23 1 22 36 108 0 1 .267 .339 .495 834 26.3
It wouldn't be surprising to see Piniella and a change of scenery help Phelps turn it around and decimate that projection. Once again, the Devil Rays are in a position to take chances. Either one of these two may pay huge dividends.
- Top 50 Prospects: Like the Braves, the Devil Rays have one of the candidates fror best prospect in the game.
- Delmon Young. He didn't put up Bondsian numbers. He's still got a ways to go to get to the majors. That's the downside.
He was 18. There wasn't much he didn't do well. Hit for average, hit for power, drew some walks and stole some bases. Young has "hitter" written all over him, and he's likely to get better. What did he do last year, and what does PECOTA expect? Let's look:
Year Lvl G AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS VORP
2004 A- 131 513 164 26 5 25 53 120 21 6 .320 .386 .536 922
2005 PECOTA 408 106 20 4 12 33 105 8 3 .259 .321 .417 738 10.9
Young may still be a long way from the majors, but a 19-year-old who looks like he could hold his own in the major leagues is special. Ask Ivan Rodriguez. Or Alex Rodriguez. Or the Devil Rays' own B.J. Upton. We still don't know what he'll become as a hitter; for now, there isn't much in the way of limits.
- Jonny Gomes. PECOTA wonderboy? Wily Mo Pena was both the subject of ridicule and, eventually, astonishment when PECOTA pegged him for a big year in 2004. Gomes might be this year's version? To be fair, Gomes doesn't have the age advantage of Pena, and he's not highly regarded by scouts for his tools. He's 24 (won't turn 25 until next November), so it's not like he's young enough to have the upside of Young or Upton.
What Gomes has, however, is the ability to hit. Although he's perhaps a little old for a prospect, anyone who's slugged .526 through their minor-league career has merit. Below are his career numbers along with his 2005 PECOTA projection.
Year TM LG Ag Lvl AVG G AB H 2B 3B HR SB CS BB SO OBP SLG OPS
2001 PRI App 20 Roo .291 62 206 60 11 2 16 15 4 33 73 .389 .597 986
2002 BAK CAL 21 A .276 133 446 123 24 9 30 15 3 91 173 .431 .572 1003
2003 ORL SOU 22 AA .249 120 442 110 28 3 17 23 2 53 148 .348 .441 789
2004 DUR INT 23 AAA .256 114 390 100 27 1 26 8 5 51 136 .368 .531 899
2005 TB AL 24 MLB .265 272 72 15 2 14 5 2 34 88 .366 .491 857
With Rocco Baldelli out with a torn ACL, Gomes should get some playing time. That doesn't mean he will. The latest word is that Joey Gathright is going to get time in Baldelli's absence. Putting things in perspective, Gathright's projection of -4.5 VORP is the worst among the Devil Rays, below such luminaries as Brook Fordyce and Rey Sanchez. As fast as Gathright may be, as the old cliché goes, you can't steal first base. Gathright's PECOTA projection:
Year Lvl AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS VORP
2005 PECOTA 338 85 12 3 1 23 67 23 7 .252 .311 .310 621 -4.5
If the choice is between Joey Gathright and Jonny Gomes, it's not a tough one.
- Anti-Moneyball? Just when you had J.P. Ricciardi pegged as a Billy Beane disciple, he throws a wrench in the works. Come to think of it, Beane's done that himself this offseason, so perhaps J.P.'s following suit. The similarity ends there, though. Beane realized he needed to retool and decisively made moves to try to inject fresh blood into the A's, all while leaving them options for the future. Ricciardi's latest moves seem like something intended to plug holes in the dam until better options are available.
In the past month, the Jays have gone out and gotten Corey Koskie, Shea Hillenbrand, Scott Schoeneweis and Billy Koch. Koch comes back to the Jays in a low-risk, low-cost deal; if he finds himself again, he could certainly be nice bait for a mid-season deal. Schoeneweis is a bit more confusing, as he's had one semi-useful campaign in relief.
Let's look at the recent position player acquisitions within the context of dollars per anticipated win (salary divided by projected Wins Above Replacement, in millions).
Player AB(est) WARP VORP(est) 2005 Salary $MM/Win
Koskie 4.8 29.9 3,500,000* $ 729K
Hillenbrand 3.2 13.0 4,000,000** $ 1250K
Crozier 2.2 14.7 300,000 $ 136K
* includes pro-rated signing bonus
** high-end estimate at arbitration; 2004
WARP numbers are projected from 2004 PECOTA projection
It's hard to justify the Hillenbrand acquisition, although there are some mitigating factors. He didn't cost a lot in terms of talent--C pitching prospect Adam Peterson--and the Jays seemed to have some money to spend this season. He's not a financial albatross, and can be traded or cut loose fairly readily. There wasn't much left on the market in the way of right-handed power or first basemen. If he puts up good raw numbers, he could be flipped for something useful when a desperate team comes calling mid-season.
The Koskie signing looks like a good value proposition, at least in comparison to the players above. Unfortunately, he's going to be blocking Aaron Hill by the end of this year, and at 32, it's not likely that he'll be revisiting his 2000-03 peak. Expect Koskie to take over third base while Hinske moves across the diamond to first base, with a plethora of options having Hillenbrand and Crozier around. They're certainly covered at third base if anyone gets hurt, having just about cornered the mid-market third basemen.
- Top 50 Prospects: The Jays have a deep farm system, but lack the top-tier guy the Devil Rays and Braves each have.
- Guillermo Quiroz. 2004 was a tough year for Quiroz. He had all the luster and sheen of a top catching prospect, and a nagging hand injury derailed his season. There's still plenty of opportunity, but he'll wind up moving downward in our prospect list until he can establish that he's healthy and the lost season hasn't derailed his development. His 2004 numbers along with his PECOTA projection:
Year Lvl G AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS VORP
2004 AAA 76 255 58 19 1 8 28 54 0 0 .227 .309 .404 713
2004 TOR 17 52 11 2 0 0 2 8 1 0 .212 .250 .263 513
2005 PECOTA 291 74 16 1 12 26 68 0 1 .254 .326 .441 767 13.9
Quiroz still projects quite well, albeit in limited playing time. His catching skills are still well regarded; if he continues to build on those and his peripheral batting skills, he won't have to hit for a high average to be valuable. If he does, it'll be gravy. Expect Quiroz to be middle to back of the pack in our Top 50 Prospects list. If he returns healthy and continues to develop, he'll be far more valuable than that.
- Russ Adams. Adams is a more difficult story. He looks like he'll be a useful player for a few years, with little or no star potential. The Jays can plug him in, have an affordable shortstop (or second baseman) for a few years, then shift to a utility or backup role. He did have a nice cup of coffee in 2004, but he'll have to keep that up much longer to convince us this is a real change and not sample size variation.
Year Lvl G AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS VORP
2004 AAA 122 483 139 37 3 5 45 62 6 2 .288 .351 .408 759
2004 TOR 22 72 22 2 1 4 5 5 1 0 .306 .359 .526 887
2005 PECOTA 303 81 17 3 6 30 40 4 2 .268 .338 .396 734 14.1
Adams is likely to have a few productive years, then become a utility player or part-timer. Look for him to get an honorable mention in our Top 50 Prospects list.
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