Under The Knife: What ... (09/15)
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September 15, 2004 Breaking BallsMore on GreatnessThe worst team in the major leagues is the Arizona Diamondbacks, who lost their 101st game Monday night. On those same Diamondbacks, Randy Johnson is having the best season by a National League pitcher. He leads the league in Value Over Replacement Player with 63.5 runs, compared to Ben Sheets at 57.9 and Carl Pavano at 57.5Author/recluse Rany Jazayerli noted that Johnson's having a ridiculous season. Check this out: Johnson has 257 strikeouts in his 31 starts so far, and has allowed just 41 walks. Fully 30% of the batters who step up to the plate against him whiff. One in 20 gets a free pass to first base. One in 50 hits a home run, and they better put their head down and run the bases, because while he's allowed 16 home runs, he's also hit ten batters. What is most impressive is that Johnson has allowed 149 hits and 41 walks in 215 innings. With the ten hit batters, that's 200 baserunners allowed by Johnson. On average, Johnson allows less than a baserunner an inning. As Rany put it: "I dare say that Johnson, as much as Barry Bonds, is redefining what a player can do in his 40s. There is not only no reason whatsoever to think Johnson is slipping, there's reason to believe he's actually getting better. In particular, his control has improved markedly, much as Nolan Ryan's did at around the same age. The difference is that Johnson had better control to begin with, and now he's actually one of the best control pitchers in the league. Since the start of last season, Johnson has walked 68 batters in 329 2/3 innings, or 1.86 walks per nine." This will add another great season to Johnson's resumé. Keith Woolner pulled the 10 best performances by starting pitchers, as determined as (H+BB)/IP, since 1992. YEAR NAME IP H BB BR BR_IP 2000 Martinez,Pedro 217.0 128 32 160 .7373 1995 Maddux,Greg 209.7 147 23 170 .8108 1994 Maddux,Greg 202.0 150 31 181 .8960 1999 Martinez,Pedro 213.3 160 37 197 .9234 1997 Martinez,Pedro 241.3 158 67 225 .9323 1996 Brown,Kevin 233.0 187 33 220 .9442 1997 Maddux,Greg 232.7 200 20 220 .9456 2003 Schmidt,Jason 207.7 152 46 198 .9535 2002 Schilling,Curt 259.3 218 33 251 .9679 2002 Lowe,Derek 219.7 166 48 214 .9742 1998 Maddux,Greg 251.0 201 45 246 .9801 2002 Perez,Odalis 222.3 182 38 220 .9895 1992 Schilling,Curt 226.3 165 59 224 .9897 2000 Brown,Kevin 230.0 181 47 228 .9913 1999 Millwood,Kevin 228.0 168 59 227 .9956 1996 Smoltz,John 253.7 199 55 254 1.0013 2001 Johnson,Randy 249.7 181 71 252 1.0093 1992 Maddux,Greg 268.0 201 70 271 1.0112 1992 Tewksbury,Bob 233.0 217 20 237 1.0172 1999 Johnson,Randy 271.7 207 70 277 1.0196While we fairly believe that the 1990s were the dominion of the hitter, we have witnessed some truly amazing performances. Johnson's season, if he stopped right now, would give him the third-best. What about post-WWII? Since 1945: YEAR NAME IP H BB BR BR_IP 2000 Martinez,Pedro 217.0 128 32 160 .7373 1995 Maddux,Greg 209.7 147 23 170 .8108 1968 McNally,Dave 273.0 175 55 230 .8425 1968 Gibson,Bob 304.7 198 62 260 .8534 1965 Koufax,Sandy 335.7 216 71 287 .8550 1966 Marichal,Juan 307.3 228 36 264 .8590 1968 Tiant,Luis 258.3 152 73 225 .8710 1963 Koufax,Sandy 311.0 214 58 272 .8746 1994 Maddux,Greg 202.0 150 31 181 .8960 1968 McLain,Denny 336.0 241 63 304 .9048 1972 Sutton,Don 272.7 186 63 249 .9132 1972 Hunter,Catfish 295.3 200 70 270 .9142 1965 Marichal,Juan 295.3 224 46 270 .9142 1986 Scott,Mike 275.3 182 72 254 .9225 1999 Martinez,Pedro 213.3 160 37 197 .9234 1964 Koufax,Sandy 223.0 154 53 207 .9283 1997 Martinez,Pedro 241.3 158 67 225 .9323 1964 Horlen,Joe 210.7 142 55 197 .9351 1985 Tudor,John 275.0 209 49 258 .9382 1996 Brown,Kevin 233.0 187 33 220 .9442This season by Johnson would rank as the ninth-best since the boys came home. One of the great things about getting into the stats of baseball, and particularly Baseball Prospectus' quest to allow comparisons of players across eras, has been that it has opened my eyes to historical greatness. In admiring Johnson's work, I'm reminded of Rany's point that training, better doctors, and even mundane advancements in areas like nutrition have made it possible for players to perform at this level later in their careers than ever. I also see something else: as I have been lucky to witness the career of Barry Bonds, greatest hitter ever, and Alex Rodriguez, formerly the greatest shortstop ever, I have also been lucky enough to see Pedro Martinez and Greg Maddux during sustained runs of greatness. Martinez, pitching in Fenway, has thrown up seasons that run with those of Sandy Koufax at his most dominant in Dodger Stadium. Greg Maddux shows up ahead of Bob Gibson's amazing 1968 season, when he had an ERA of 1.12 and struck out 268 batters. Johnson pitches tonight against the Rockies. Take a few hours and watch history in the making.
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