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September 11, 2004 Prospectus TodayStats for a Saturday
A couple of notes on events from the week that was, compiled thanks to the great data staff here at Baseball Prospectus. Wednesday night, Odalis Perez went five innings, allowed three runs on four hits (two home runs) and struck out three men. The batter who hit for him in the fifth, Olmedo Saenz, made him eligible for the win by blasting a grand slam to give the Dodgers a 4-3 lead, one they would yield in the top of the sixth. The no-decision was Perez's 17th in 2004; he has a 6-4 record in 27 starts. He hasn't received a decision in his last five outings, and has just a 2-1 mark in 13 starts since the middle of June. Perez has left eight games as the losing pitcher of record (including Wednesday, when he was pinch-hit for with the Dodgers trailing), only to see the Dodgers score and spare him an "L". He has been the winning pitcher of record and watched the bullpen blow his lead just three times. Six times, he's left a tie game. While this might indicate that Perez is "lucky" to be 6-4, consider that in the majority of those eight games, Perez pitched well, only to have the Dodgers save their offense for after his departure. Perez has received the seventh-worst run support of any NL starter, just 4.17 runs per game. His no-decisions have more to do with a disappointing lack of run support than any failing on his part. Keith Woolner was able to put Perez's season in some perspective: Lowest decision/start ratio, min. 20 starts, since 1972: NAME YEAR GS W L DEC RATIO Dwight Gooden 1999 22 3 4 7 .3182 Mike Morgan 1998 22 4 3 7 .3182 Odalis Perez 2004 27 6 4 10 .3846 Mike Krukow 1987 28 5 6 11 .3929 Paul Moskau 1978 25 6 4 10 .4000 Dave Burba 2002 21 5 4 9 .4286 Orel Hershiser 1991 21 7 2 9 .4286 Dennis Cook 1992 25 5 6 11 .4400 Steve Trout 1986 25 4 7 11 .4400 Ismael Valdes 2000 20 2 7 9 .4500 Steve McCatty 1982 20 6 3 9 .4500 Bob Walk 1991 20 7 2 9 .4500Perez's 17 no-decisions tie him with Mike Krukow for the most since '72. No one else has more than 15. And on the flip side: Highest decision/start ratio, min. 20 starts, since 1972 NAME YEAR GS W L DEC RATIO Gaylord Perry 1972 40 24 16 40 1.0000 Steve Rogers 1974 38 15 22 37 .9737 Greg Swindell 1988 33 18 14 32 .9697 Jerry Koosman 1976 32 21 10 31 .9688 Ron Guidry 1983 31 21 9 30 .9677 Kirk McCaskill 1991 30 10 19 29 .9667 Marty Pattin 1973 30 14 15 29 .9667 Mark Fidrych 1976 29 19 9 28 .9655 Larry Dierker 1976 28 13 14 27 .9643 John Smiley 1997 26 11 14 25 .9615 Steve McCatty 1981 22 14 7 21 .9545 Joe Coleman 1973 40 23 15 38 .9500 Bob Tewksbury 1990 20 10 9 19 .9500 Dennis Leonard 1978 40 21 17 38 .9500It shouldn't be any surprise that this list is dominated by pitchers from the mid-1970s, the post-1919 peak for starting-pitcher workloads. Odalis Perez is having a unique season. On Thursday, the Kansas City Royals had a unique day, pounding the Tigers 26-4 in the first game of a doubleheader before dropping the second game, 8-0. As Jim Baker pointed out on Friday, the Royals are the worst team in recent memory to score 25 or more runs in a game, and one of the worst to beat an opponent by at least 20 runs in that timeframe I think what they did in the second game is just as special. How do you go from 26 runs to none in the span of three hours? How do you score 26 runs in a doubleheader and come away with a split? James Click found that the Royals destroyed the previous mark for doubleheader double personality: before Thursday, no team since 1972 had scored as many as 18 runs and been shut out on the same day: Date Team R 27-JUL-78 CLE 17 14-AUG-87 SDN 15 22-MAY-77 BOS 14 06-SEP-96 CIN 14 29-JUL-00 CLE 14 25-JUL-74 SFN 13 13-JUN-76 SLN 12 30-SEP-99 NYA 12 16-JUL-99 KCA 12 01-AUG-83 CAL 12 17-APR-83 CIN 12 31-AUG-78 CLE 12If you take out the doubleheader qualifier, the Royals still stand alone as scoring the highest number of runs in advance of being shut out since 1972. The next in line: Date Team R 17-MAY-77 CHN 23 28-JUL-73 CAL 19 01-AUG-02 TEX 19 15-APR-79 MIN 18 23-JUN-86 SFN 18 19-SEP-98 SFN 18 20-JUN-00 DET 18 02-JUN-02 PHI 18Thanks to Keith and James for all their help.
Joe Sheehan is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 0 comments have been left for this article.
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