September 22, 2017

Fantasy Starting Pitcher Planner

Week 25

by Mark Barry

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It's time to preview the hurlers scheduled for two starts in the upcoming week. As the old wrestling promoters would always say: “Card Subject to Change,” because injuries and tinkering managers can make this less than a science. Should new information present itself, we can go over it in the comments.

National League

Auto-Start

Nobody.

Start

*The last week of the season can be tricky with guys getting shut down and teams trying to plan for their playoff rotations. Stay tuned on a few of these guys, but for now they’re scheduled to get two starts.

Jake Arrieta	@STL, CIN
Yu Darvish	SD, @COL
Zack Godley	SF, @KC
Gio Gonzalez	@PHI, PIT
Jon Lester	@STL, CIN
Carlos Martinez	CHC, MIL
Luke Weaver	CHC, MIL
Alex Wood	SD, @COL

Coming in hot with the take-iest take of all takes: Injuries are a bummer. This is especially true for Arrieta, who was rounding back into ace-level form, with a 2.01 ERA over 12 starts before a hamstring strain sidelined him for most of September.

At first I was skeptical, but then I saw his face, now I’m in on Weaver (bad sign that we’re already forcing it). The rookie has been incredible this season, limiting the opposition to a line of .218/.257/.331 as a starter, with 62 strikeouts in 47 2/3 innings. There will be some regression, both in ERA and strikeouts (11 strikeouts per nine innings is really tough with a league-average swinging-strike rate), but Weaver is good and should reliable in two home starts next week.

Consider

Johnny Cueto	@ARI, SD
Zach Davies	CIN, @STL
R.A. Dickey	@NYM, @MIA
Mike Foltynewicz	@NYM, @MIA

In five starts off the DL, Cueto has been mostly himself, fanning 23 batters in 20 2/3 innings. He’s throwing more sliders in his return, which has helped him produce more ground balls, an issue that he struggled with earlier this season. He’s walking way too many guys, which has contributed to a bloated ERA, but once he gets the control under control, he should be fine.

Before getting touched up for six runs against the Marlins in his previous outing, Davies had only given up five runs combined in his previous six starts. He doesn’t strike anyone out, but he does a good job limiting homers, and he’s currently tied with Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke (one of these things is not like the other) for the National League lead in wins.

After enjoying a lengthy streak of serviceability, Dickey’s chariot has turned back into a pumpkin over his past three starts, surrendering 16 runs in 14 1/3 innings, chipping in a measly eight strikeouts in the process. The matchups (and more importantly, the parks) are Dickey’s only saving grace this week.

Sit

Tyler Chatwood	MIA, LAD
Rookie Davis	@MIL, @CHC
Odrisamer Despaigne	@COL, ATL
Rafael Montero	ATL, @PHI
Jose Urena	@COL, ATL

If you squint, Chatwood isn’t half bad. He’s holding opponents to a .195/.300/.382 slash line, striking out a little over seven guys per nine innings with a 3.41 ERA. Wait, nope, those are just his road numbers. At home, the 27-year-old is giving up a line of .300/.395/.504 with an ERA approaching 6.00. Sadly for Chatwood fans, both starts this week are at home.

So what are we going to call Davis once this season is over?

American League

Auto-Start

Chris Sale

TOR, HOU

We’ll lead with the same caveat for Sale. Two starts would be nice, but you’re obviously rolling with the aces regardless.

Start

Mike Clevinger	MIN, CWS
Dallas Keuchel	@TEX, @BOS
Drew Pomeranz	TOR, HOU
CC Sabathia	KC, TOR
Luis Severino	TB, TOR

Potential Breakout Alert: Clevinger has thrown 118 innings in 2017 with a 3.13 ERA and a 12.4 percent swinging-strike rate. Perhaps most importantly, since returning to the rotation after a brief stint in the bullpen, Clevinger has allowed only 15 free passes in eight starts. If the command improvements are real, the 26-year-old could be just what Cleveland needs, yet another solid, young starting pitcher (yes, this is sarcasm).

To say that Keuchel’s return to the rotation hasn’t quite gone swimmingly would be akin to saying Darren Aronofsky’s latest movie, mother!, was only a little out there. The Astros ace has an ERA over 4.50 in his past 10 starts, but at this point, you’re likely going with track record, which keeps the lefty in the “Start” tier.

Pomeranz throws a ton of pitches; his 17.8 pitches per inning rank fourth-most in MLB). Luckily for him, a lot of his pitches have been really good. The southpaw has a 2.33 ERA in his past 12 starts, and has only surrendered three runs combined in his past three outings. The inflated pitch counts won’t allow Pomeranz to see too many eighth innings, but the 28-year-old has been doing enough damage early to remain valuable.

In early May, Sabathia got rocked in four consecutive starts, allowing 22 runs in 20 2/3 innings. Since then, the 37-year-old has made 18 starts, striking out nearly eight batters per nine innings with a 3.03 ERA.

Consider

Parker Bridwell	@CWS, SEA
Carson Fulmer	LAA, @CLE
Daniel Gossett	SEA, @TEX
Cole Hamels	HOU, OAK
Felix Hernandez	@OAK, @LAA
Daniel Mengden	SEA, @TEX
Brad Peacock	@TEX, @BOS
Blake Snell	@NYY, BAL
Jason Vargas	DET, ARI

Bridwell has been a nice surprise for the Halos this season, combining stretches of dominance (albeit without many strikeouts) with truly terrifying blow-up starts that could ruin your week. Sounds like a perfect “Consider” to me.

Since returning to the White Sox rotation, Fulmer has been pretty solid, giving up only two runs in 12 innings, while chipping in 14 strikeouts. Having said that, those two starts came against the Giants and the Tigers, so *shrug emoji*. The matchups aren’t nearly as good this week, but the rookie could be an interesting play if you choose to look at the glass as half Full-mer.

Of the famed Oakland Daniels, I slightly prefer Gossett, but only in a vanilla vs. vanilla bean sort of way. Having said that, Mengden has only given up two runs in his past three outings, and has old-timey mechanics to pair with his handlebar moustache, both of which are huge hits at parties.

The Astros just can’t keep Peacock out of the rotation. Many thought the righty would be the odd-man out once the rotation got healthy, but Peacock answered those questions with strikeouts. Since June 13, Peacock has given up more than three runs in a start only twice, striking out 105 batters in 86 2/3 innings with a 2.91 ERA. To use technical, insider jargon, that’s... good.

Sit

Brett Anderson	@BOS, @NYY
Andrew Cashner	HOU, OAK
Bartolo Colon	@CLE, DET
Ricky Nolasco	@CWS, SEA
Ian Kennedy	@NYY, ARI
Anibal Sanchez	@KC, @MIN
James Shields	LAA, @CLE

Two IAN KENNEDY REVENGE GAMES in one week? (#blessed)

Much to our collective shock, Sanchez has been pretty decent in his past two starts, giving up only two runs in 12 innings, kicking in 19 strikeouts for good measure. Having said that, he had been really, really bad in almost all of his previuous trips to the mound. I definitely don’t have the gall to start him, but I wouldn’t begrudge you for rolling the dice.

**Well, that wraps up the 2017 season for the Fantasy Starting Pitcher Planner. I really enjoyed writing the column this season and the feedback and discussion in the comments was a lot of fun. Hopefully you all won championships this season, and will come back next year to defend your respective crowns. Thanks for reading, you guys are the coolest.

Mark Barry is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
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