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September 18, 2017 Monday Morning Ten Pack2018 Breakout Candidates
Francisco Morales, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies (complex-level GCL)
Seranthony Dominguez, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies (High-A Clearwater)
Jesus Luzardo, LHP, Oakland Athletics (short-season Vermont)
He climbed back onto a hill for the first time since the surgery in his professional debut back in July, and promptly showed everyone that the Great Stuff was back. He’s shown it many times since, across three lower-minors levels. It’s a three-pitch mix, with the aforementioned excellent cambio and feel to spin a curveball from the left side. He’s primarily worked in brief stints to date, though he’s navigated five a couple times down the stretch. So next year will be the first season starting to build up volume for him since the operation, and likely in a full-season debut. The profile’s one that can make up some lost development time quickly, and a steady season through High-A can solidify him as one of the better left-handed pitching prospects around. —Wilson Karaman
Monte Harrison, OF, Milwaukee Brewers (High-A Carolina)
Jonathan Loaisiga, RHP, New York Yankees (short-season Staten Island)
It can be easy to overlook a 22-year-old short-season pitcher listed at 5-foot-11 and 165 pounds in a deep system, stocked with talented teenagers. Nonetheless, he features a potentially plus fastball-curveball combination with the ability to throw either pitch for strikes in any count. The fastball consistently hovers around 95 (t97) with late movement. Considering that he has only made 11 starts post-surgery, he should continue to get stronger and thus hit 97-98 more frequently going forward. While most of the nine strikeouts were off his fastball, his curveball (80-84 mph) generated several swing and misses as well. It flashed plus with hard, tight break and at times can be difficult to distinguish from a slider. The Staten Island pitchers sitting in front of me confirmed though that his breaking ball is indeed a curveball. His changeup is presently a clear third pitch yet flashed average with decent fade. Loaisiga’s injury history and height suggest a future as a reliever, but his arsenal could succeed in a big-league rotation. With hopefully significantly more innings pitched in 2018, expect him to start shooting up prospect lists. —Erich Rothmann
Brenan Hanifee, RHP, Baltimore Orioles (short-season Aberdeen)
His repertoire flashes starter potential too, as he sits 91-93, but should get to plus velo consistently as he continues to mature. The heater has consistent sinking, arm-side action that projects to miss a solid number of bats in the future. The concern lies in the offspeed stuff as the slider flashes average, but lacks consistent command and swing-and-miss action. The change is still well-below-average too, but I’m chalking up the below-average secondaries to youth at this point because the arm action is too loose and athletic to think he can’t improve them as he moves up the ladder. Pair this with the fact that Hanifee showed the ability to pound the zone and you’ve got an upside pitching prospect to keep an eye as we start to look towards 2018. —Greg Goldstein
Marcus Wilson, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks (Low-A Kane County)
Wilson was described in our Diamondback’s top 10 at the beginning of the year as a slow-burn prospect who hasn’t hit for power in his time in the minors. Since being drafted 69th-overall in 2014, the slender outfielder had never hit more than one home run in any of his three professional seasons. However, this year there have been some signs that the bat is finally catching up to the other tools. While still lean and athletic, he has added some muscle to his frame. That added strength, along with a swing path that features more leverage, has caused the power numbers to increase. It’s currently raw pull power but continued physical growth should cause more balls to leave the yard. The swing is quick with above-average bat speed, and Wilson has displayed a patient approach to go along with solid bat to ball skills. Speed, defense, and the hit tool all have the look of being plus which would give a profile of an everyday major league outfielder. He’s never going to be a slugger but if the power continues to grow next year in Visalia or Jackson, you might see the once slow-burning prospect begin to catch fire. —Nathan Graham
Gabriel Arias, SS, San Diego Padres (complex-level AZL)
Born in 2000, Arias won’t turn 18 until spring training next year. He’s a tall, lean shortstop with a 6-foot-2-or-3 frame who could draw physical comps to Carlos Correa. Defensively, he has the tools to stick at shortstop: smooth actions, explosive hands, and a hose for an arm. He could possibly add weight and lose the range to play short, but he would still profile as a plus defender at third base. Offensively, he’s a lot less natural. He has a high leg kick and deep load, resulting in a noisy, swooping swing with quite a bit of swing-and-miss. He has the flexibility and athleticism to create good separation and generate above-average bat speed, but it comes with too much extraneous movement for sustained success. I believe his hands are both quick enough and coordinated enough to be a better hitter with some mechanical changes and overall simplification of his swing. His approach at the plate appears to be geared too much towards hitting deep fly balls, though he sinks down and becomes more of a slap hitter with two strikes. There’s significant offensive upside here, but it could be a long road towards realizing much of it. He showed me a 4.26 home-to-first while attempting to beat out a double play, which doesn’t bode well for his future run grade. I’ll refrain from cementing him as a below-average runner until I get another time, but he definitely isn’t a burner. All things considered, this is a young, talented baseball player with serious physical tools. He’ll be a very interesting prospect to watch in 2018. —Matt Pullman
Taylor Widener, P, New York Yankees (Double-A Trenton)
Widener got pulled up for the Eastern League playoffs after a strong first full pro season for High-A Tampa to piggyback a rehabbing Justus Sheffield. Brought in to start the fifth, Widener tossed five no-hit innings, ultimately completing a combined no-hitter after a hit against Sheffield from the second was reversed to an error late in the game. As I hinted at above, Widener was in the low-to-mid-90s with the fastball, topping out at 96, and it was moving around pretty good. What got me, given the quality of the fastball from a guy I wasn’t too familiar with, was that Widener commanded it like a good Double-A starting prospect, not a guy making his first Double-A appearance. At times he flashed an interesting enough breaking ball—I think he was trying to throw both a slider and a curve, but honestly they ran together—and the change was more of a show-me pitch. A second, more traditional relief appearance later in the playoffs didn’t go as well, but with some polishing out I think Widener projects as an interesting mid-rotation prospect at the upside, with a more likely outcome as a good reliever. It wasn’t quite as good as Chance Adams popping up last year, but Widener does have a lesser version of the same profile. —Jarrett Seidler
Logan Allen, LHP, San Diego Padres (High-A Lake Elsinore)
Allen’s repertoire was never the question, as he boasts a plus sinker/curveball combo from the left side. The fastball sits 91-94 but features heavy sink and run, while the curveball is a big, sharp bender that checks in around 70 mph. The arsenal is rounded out by a changeup that shows consistent fade that projects to average and a fringy slider that occasionally pokes its head out.
My biggest issue with Allen was his strike throwing ability, but he shaved nearly two percent off of his walk rate in Lake Elsinore. Going back to last season, he has managed to lower his walk rate at each step up the ladder. What I see now is a prospect who is slowly regaining his control after two years of elbow issues. I see a strong arsenal geared towards generating ground balls and whiffs. I see a 20-year-old who just posted a 56 DRA- in the Cal League. You could argue that Allen already had a pretty good season in 2017, but as he enters the high minors next year, he has a chance to really garner some attention. —Emmett Rosenbaum 3 comments have been left for this article.
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Great stuff, many thanks. Is there a link to last year's edition of this article, if it appeared in this form?
It was post-Top 50 last year, rather than at the end of the season. Here's the link: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=29791