August 3, 2017

Fantasy Freestyle

Fantasy Valuations: 2017 Fourth Edition

by Mike Gianella

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“It is difficult to believe the 2017 Major League Baseball season is past the 100 game mark,” is the kind of thing people like to say in early August, even though time moves forward in the same way every year. Let’s move past this terrible segue and look at fantasy baseball valuation!

In the linked document, you will find values through games of Aug. 1 for:

• American League hitters
• American League pitchers
• National League hitters
• National League pitchers

The formulas used to derive these valuations are not based on statistical formulas from a year ago, but rather on 2017 statistics to date. Average salaries are based on the auction rosters for the CBS, LABR and Tout Wars AL- and NL-only expert leagues. The formulas are SGP-based off the auction rosters for CBS, LABR and Tout Wars.

Table 1: Top 10 AL Hitters

We don’t talk nearly enough about how great Altuve has been in fantasy. The last time a hitter besides Altuve was #1 in AL earnings was back in 2013, when Miguel Cabrera earned $42. As many expected Judge has slipped considerably, falling $6 off his pace in July. There is more unpredictability at the top of the heap among AL hitters than there has been in years, with only four of 2016’s Top 10 hitters on pace to repeat. Correa and Maybin fell off due to injury while Dickerson slipped due to a poor month.

Table 2: Top 10 NL Hitters

Hamilton’s inclusion in the Top 10 changes the complexion of the leaderboard considerably. Where you might want to avoid rostering a one-dimensional speedster in a mixed league, having one of Gordon, Hamilton, or Turner would give you a significant leg up in NL-only. Many of the names we saw on this list a month ago remain in the Top 10. Zimmerman dropped from seventh to 14^th, while Shaw fell from 10^th to 12^th. At the rate he is going, Andrew McCutchen will be on this table next month, which would have seemed inconceivable two months ago.

Table 3: Top 10 AL Pitchers

Sale was on pace to earn over $50 before his poor outing against Cleveland on Tuesday night. Overall, he maintained his value and thanks to a lack of high end performances in July he has a wider gap on the second-best pitcher than he did a month ago. Paxton is getting all the hype from the experts, but Severino is having the better season, and is flying under the radar as an -only league ace. McCullers dropped off the Top 10, falling all the way to 37^th among AL pitchers and a $15 pace.

Table 4: Top 10 NL Pitchers

Recent history repeats itself. For the second year in a row, a back injury will push Kershaw down these ranks by season’s end. This could leave Scherzer in the same position as Sale in the AL, as a dominant pitcher with no peer. The NL does have a much stronger top tier, with five pitchers on pace to earn at least $30, compared to only three in the AL. Rivero made the biggest jump from previous rankings by far and, while moving into the closer’s role did help, much of Rivero’s value is tied to his excellent ERA and WHIP.

Mike Gianella is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @MikeGianella
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