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July 19, 2017

Transaction Analysis

JD to AZ

by Wilson Karaman, Stacey Gotsulias, Mark Anderson and George Bissell


IN THIS ISSUE

American League
National League

DETROIT TIGERS
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Acquired INF-R Dawel Lugo, INF-B Sergio Alcantara, and INF-L Jose King from Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for OF-R J.D. Martinez. [7/18]

Lugo offers a decent baseline with the bat, as he’ll make quality, consistent contact on balls all around the zone. The setup and launch are rhythmic, and he’s got a quick trigger with requisite bat speed to find pitches deep in the zone. While he’s shown some signs of tightening up his command of the strike zone, he remains a highly aggressive hitter. And while he has the barrel skills to make it work pretty well, his impatience has thus far capped his ability to bring above-average raw power into games consistently.

He is, of course, still extremely young—more than two years the junior to a given Double-A teammate. But it’s also his sixth professional season stateside, and the approach has remained broadly consistent for much of his career at this point.

A former shortstop, Lugo has seen the vast majority of his reps at third base for the past couple seasons. His frame is on the thicker side by trade, though he’s made notable strides with his conditioning. While agility and range are unlikely to ever be assets to which he lays claim, he’ll showcase some physicality and body control on the move, with a plus arm to help him finish plays.

It’s a fringe-average regular profile for me, with the chance that he starts working with a new hitting coach at some point and figures out how to improve his approach and unlock more of his natural power. —Wilson Karaman

Alcantara is about as a stark a “definite shortstop” profile as you’ll find in A-ball. He displays an innate feel for reading contact, with lateral quickness and agility that significantly outpaces his fringe-average straight-line running speed and affords him plus range in either direction. The hands are soft and quick, and he shows the ability to anticipate angles and adjust on the fly coming across the bag on turns. The arm is plus, with velocity and accuracy to make plays in the hole.

The main question—and likely limiting factor—for Alcantara’s development will be whether the offensive approach translates against more advanced command and sequencing in the high minors. A switch-hitter, he’ll show patience from both sides and stay in the zone pretty well. The swing was a bit more compact and efficient from the right side in my looks, but it’s a similar stroke from both sides. And by that, it's a handsy, slashing swing out of a deep crouch that involves very little from his lower half.

Combined with a slight frame, he lacks for really any semblance of power utility from either side of the dish. His barrel gets to the ball quickly, and he’ll show quality hand-eye in staying on off-speed pitches, to where he makes a decent amount of contact. But good velocity has already proven a decent challenge in my looks, and I’m skeptical the hit tool plays higher than a 4.

The glove is such that there’s a decent chance he logs miles on a 25-man roster some day, and maybe even for many days. —Wilson Karaman

King is the ultimate wild card among the prospects in this deal. He's a premium athlete who has physical projection remaining, and aside from the general athleticism the profile is highlighted by plus-plus speed that plays well in the field and on the bases. King has some feel for the barrel and a chance to develop a contact-oriented bat with limited power. He fits better at second base due to a fringe arm, but he could be an above-average glove at the position. —Mark Anderson

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
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Acquired OF-R J.D. Martinez from Detroit Tigers in exchange for INF-R Dawel Lugo, INF-B Sergio Alcantara, and INF-L Jose King. [7/18]

On Monday night, J.D. Martinez’s own mother believed the outfielder was being traded when he was taken out of a game against the Royals in the sixth inning. That’s what happens this time of year. A player is removed from the game and, no matter the reason, the rumor mill goes into overdrive. And there were plenty of rumors and plenty of teams interested in the 29-year-old slugger, including the Royals, Red Sox, Dodgers, and Cardinals. It was just a precautionary move Monday, as he was experiencing lower back tightness. The trade wouldn’t actually happen for another 18 hours or so. Martinez, instead, was traded on Tuesday to the Diamondbacks.

Martinez is having another excellent year at the plate, batting .305/.388/.630 with a .330 TAv in 57 games after spending the first six weeks of the season on the disabled list with a foot injury. He reinvented himself as a middle-of-the-order masher in Detroit after three not-so-great seasons with Houston. He hit a career-high 38 home runs in 2015, hit 22 in 120 games last season, and has 16 in 232 plate appearances this year. He fills an obvious need for the Diamondbacks as someone who can handle lefty pitchers and the NL West has notable lefties like Clayton Kershaw, Alex Wood, and Madison Bumgarner.

OK, now let’s be real for a second: The Diamondbacks are not going to catch the Dodgers in the NL West race unless something catastrophic happens to Los Angeles, but they are currently in the lead for the first Wild Card slot. This move improves an already strong lineup and manager Torey Lovullo could make a Jake Lamb sandwich between elite righties Paul Goldschmidt and Martinez. Dating back to 2014, when Martinez first broke out in Detroit, he and Goldschmidt have two of MLB's top five OPS by right-handed hitters (Mike Trout, Giancarlo Stanton, and Martinez's now ex-teammate Miguel Cabrera have the other three).

Martinez has about $5 million left on his contract for 2017 and will be a free agent this offseason, which is why arguably the best available hitter was nabbed for such a seemingly modest return. He's considered a three-month rental and this is a win-now move for the Diamondbacks, who haven't been to the playoffs since 2011. It’s a solid move by general manager Mike Hazen and his staff, and Martinez and his bat should definitely make a huge impact for Arizona down the stretch. —Stacey Gotsulias

Fantasy Impact

J.D. Martinez

Martinez wasted no time reestablishing himself as a four-category fantasy stud after a season-opening DL stint. One of the founding fathers of the “air-ball revolution,” Martinez's .385 wOBA ranks ninth out of 270 major-league hitters with at least 1,000 plate appearances since 2014. He’s an elite fantasy outfielder.

Escaping Comerica Park’s cavernous dimensions, and landing in the fifth spot of the Diamondbacks' loaded lineup, should provide a major boost to Martinez's immediate fantasy value over the final two months. With A.J. Pollock, David Peralta, Paul Goldschmidt, and Jake Lamb setting the table, run-producing opportunities should be plentiful. There are few places better for a dynamic slugger than Chase Field. Per ESPN's park factors, the venue ranks second only to Coors Field in run production this season and only Yankee Stadium has been more favorable for home run power.

NL-only owners who missed out on Jose Quintana last weekend are the real winners in this deal. Martinez is the caliber of crossover talent that merits plunking down a maximum FAAB bid. It’s impossible to predict if there will be any additional fantasy studs coming over to the senior circuit at the trade deadline, so the best strategy is to go all-in on Martinez right now. —George Bissell

Wilson Karaman is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Wilson's other articles. You can contact Wilson by clicking here
Stacey Gotsulias is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Stacey's other articles. You can contact Stacey by clicking here
Mark Anderson is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Mark's other articles. You can contact Mark by clicking here
George Bissell is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see George's other articles. You can contact George by clicking here

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