July 12, 2017

Dynasty Prospect Rankings

The 2017 Midseason Top 50

by Bret Sayre and Ben Carsley

We’re baaaaaaaaack.

For this year’s preseason Top 101 Dynasty Prospect List, Bret and I tried something new. Rather than each coming up with our separate rankings and presenting them to you as such, we forced ourselves to come together with a combined ranking. The end result might not look too different to the readers, but we enjoyed that it balanced out our best and worst tendencies as prospect rankers, and we both felt as though it made us think more critically in the process.

We liked it so much, in fact, that we’ve used the same process for the Midseason Top 50 update. And that’s good, because midseason updates can be trickier than their offseason counterparts. Weighing relatively small samples, scouting reports and additions/subtractions to the player pool forces us into a delicate balancing act. And with top talents like Aaron Judge, Andrew Benintendi, Dansby Swanson, Cody Bellinger, Josh Bell and others all graduated, the list is definitely a little thinner than you might assume it would be. That said, it’s still jam-packed with talent.

A reminder of ground rules here. This list is designed for keep-forever dynasty leagues without salaries or contracts, and with separate farm systems. It’s based on a medium-sized league, generally around 14-16 teams, and assumes one catcher rather than two. Home parks and organizations are factored in, as well as paths to playing time, since fantasy owners do care about these things. And as far as the player pools go, we are including anyone with prospect eligibility (regardless of whether they’re in the majors or not), and this year we are including recent draftees.

Also, at the behest of several commenters who’ve weighed in on our past lists, we’ve added “Fantasy Impact ETA” to try and give you a sense as to when we think these players can be relied upon as fantasy assets--not necessarily when we think they’ll first be summoned to the majors. We’ve listed Preseason Rank, or “PS Rank,” next to each player as well so you can get a sense as to their movement.

Finally, in honor of Game of Thrones returning in a few days, we hope you like how we’ve prefaced our analysis. With all that out of the way, enjoy!

TIER 1: War of the Five Kings

1. Yoan Moncada, 2B, Chicago White Sox (PS Rank: 1)
News from the Citadel: Striking out, reaching base and showcasing power/speed
Oathkeeper: A five-tool, first-round fantasy stud
Kingslayer: Ian Kinsler with a badonk
Fantasy Impact ETA: Late 2017

2. Brendan Rodgers, SS, Colorado Rockies (PS Rank: 6)
News from the Citadel: Hitting .400 is damn impressive regardless of environment
Oathkeeper: Troy Tulowitzki without the injuries
Kingslayer: Still a freaking good hitter at Coors
Fantasy Impact ETA: 2018

3. Amed Rosario, SS, New York Mets (PS Rank: 5)
News from the Citadel: Triple-A is not a challenge for him
Oathkeeper: The good Jean Segura
Kingslayer: Reinforcing Terry Collins’ bad habits
Fantasy Impact ETA: 2018

4. Victor Robles, OF, Washington Nationals (PS Rank: 4)
News from the Citadel: Another level, but still no challenge
Oathkeeper: A five-category stud
Kingslayer: Maybe it’s only 15-homer power
Fantasy Impact ETA: 2019

5. Rafael Devers, 3B, Boston Red Sox (PS Rank: 8)
News from the Citadel: Should be headed to Fenway shortly
Oathkeeper: A top-10 third baseman until his 30s
Kingslayer: A top-15 first baseman by the time he’s 27
Fantasy Impact ETA: 2018

TIER 2: The Second Sons

6. Ronald Acuna, OF, Atlanta Braves (PS Rank: 26)
News from the Citadel: He’s raking and stealing in Double-A before his 20th birthday
Oathkeeper: A potential first-round pick
Kingslayer: Michael A. Taylor
Fantasy Impact ETA: Mid 2018

7. Eloy Jimenez, OF, Chicago Cubs (PS Rank: 12)
News from the Citadel: This counts as a thing he did
Oathkeeper: A 30-homer slugger with the average
Kingslayer: A 30-homer slugger without the average
Fantasy Impact ETA: 2019

8. Clint Frazier, OF, New York Yankees (PS Rank: 13)
News from the Citadel: Already launching walk-offs in the majors
Oathkeeper: Insane bat speed yields a .280 average and 25 homers
Kingslayer: Insane bat speed yields 20 homers
Fantasy Impact ETA: 2017

9. Gleyber Torres, SS, New York Yankees (PS Rank: 21)
News from the Citadel: His recent Tommy John surgery was a success
Oathkeeper: Xander Bogaerts, but not at shortstop
Kingslayer: Josh Harrison, but also not at shortstop
Fantasy Impact ETA: 2018

10. Franklin Barreto, SS, Oakland Athletics (PS Rank: 27)
News from the Citadel: That walk-off bomb was just the beginning
Oathkeeper: The new Eduardo Nunez
Kingslayer: Chris Owings
Fantasy Impact ETA: 2018

11. Kyle Tucker, OF, Houston Astros (PS Rank: 31)
News from the Citadel: If it looks like a Hunter Pence and walks like a Hunter Pence ...
Oathkeeper: Well, Prime Hunter Pence (without the speed)
Kingslayer: 2016 Hunter Pence and/or a lazy Hunter Pence comparison
Fantasy Impact ETA: 2019

12. Nick Senzel, 3B, Cincinnati Reds (PS Rank: 16)
News from the Citadel: The vanilla ice cream of top prospects continues to hit the spot
Oathkeeper: A top-10 third baseman
Kingslayer: A top-10 third baseman
Fantasy Impact ETA: Mid 2018

13. Nick Williams, OF, Philadelphia Phillies (PS Rank: 19)
News from the Citadel: Still doesn’t walk, which still doesn’t matter
Oathkeeper: A better Steven Souza Jr.
Kingslayer: The old Steven Souza Jr.
Fantasy Impact ETA: 2018

14. Lewis Brinson, OF, Milwaukee Brewers (PS Rank: 17)
News from the Citadel: Crushed Triple-A, struggled in the majors
Oathkeeper: A four-category monster with a tolerable average
Kingslayer: Keon Broxton, pretty much
Fantasy Impact ETA: Late 2017

TIER 3: The Small Council

15. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 3B/1B, Toronto Blue Jays (PS Rank: 61)
News from the Citadel: Straight up crushing it
Oathkeeper: Maybe he sticks at third for a while
Kingslayer: Maybe he doesn’t
Fantasy Impact ETA: 2019

16. Francisco Mejia, C, Cleveland Indians (PS Rank: 54)
News from the Citadel: He might have the best hit tool in the minors?
Oathkeeper: The man who will dethrone Buster Posey
Kingslayer: Loses catcher eligibility before he’s 30
Fantasy Impact ETA: Mid 2018

17. Austin Meadows, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates (PS Rank: 7)
News from the Citadel: Tantalizes with tools, frustrates with health
Oathkeeper: Healthy
Kingslayer: Hurt
Fantasy Impact ETA: Mid 2018

18. Alex Reyes, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals (PS Rank: 16)
News from the Citadel: Elbows are stupid
Oathkeeper: Worth the wait
Kingslayer: A cautionary tale
Fantasy Impact ETA: 2019

19. Juan Soto, OF, Washington Nationals (PS Rank: 56)
News from the Citadel: And you thought Vlad Jr. was straight up crushing it
Oathkeeper: A .300 hitting, 30-homer outfielder
Kingslayer: He’s had 86 full-season at-bats, so
Fantasy Impact ETA: 2020

20. Luis Robert, OF, Chicago White Sox (PS Rank: N/A)
News from the Citadel: Big-money outfielder showing big-money tools
Oathkeeper: A five-category OF1
Kingslayer: Yasiel Puig
Fantasy Impact ETA: 2020

TIER 4: The Last Hero’s 12 Companions

21. Francis Martes, RHP, Houston Astros (PS Rank: 32)
News from the Citadel: Proved he can miss MLB bats, both by K and by BB
Oathkeeper: Healthy Carlos Carrasco
Kingslayer: An elite reliever
Fantasy Impact ETA: 2018

22. Ozzie Albies, 2B, Atlanta Braves (PS Rank: 36)
News from the Citadel: Stupid young, in Triple-A and hitting for more power
Oathkeeper: Prime Elvis Andrus
Kingslayer: Jose Peraza
Fantasy Impact ETA: Mid 2018

23. J.P. Crawford, SS, Philadelphia Phillies (PS Rank: 9)
News from the Citadel: He’s young for Triple-A, but yikes ...
Oathkeeper: Better Orlando Arcia
Kingslayer: One of our worst misses in recent memory
Fantasy Impact ETA: 2019

24. Willy Adames, SS, Tampa Bay Rays (PS Rank: 33)
News from the Citadel: Rays fans will haaaaaaate this ranking
Oathkeeper: A well-rounded SS who does a little bit of everything
Kingslayer: An ok MI who doesn’t do enough of anything
Fantasy Impact ETA: Mid 2018

25. Ryan McMahon, 3B/2B/1B, Colorado Rockies (PS Rank: 80)
News from the Citadel: The strikeout issues look like they are in the past
Oathkeeper: A .280 hitter with 25-plus bombs at a non-1B position
Kingslayer: Adam Lind, but properly appreciated
Fantasy Impact ETA: 2018

26. Brendan McKay, 1B/LHP, Tampa Bay Rays (PS Rank: N/A)
News from the Citadel: Rays fans will haaaaaaaate this ranking
Oathkeeper: A top-10 first baseman
Kingslayer: An all-around solid SP4
Fantasy Impact ETA: 2019

27. Keston Hiura, 2B, Milwaukee Brewers (PS Rank: N/A)
News from the Citadel: Turns out his elbow is fine
Oathkeeper: Ninety percent of Robinson Cano
Kingslayer: Ninety percent of Ian Happ the outfielder
Fantasy Impact ETA: 2019

28. Bo Bichette, SS, Toronto Blue Jays (PS Rank: NR)
News from the Citadel: What he did to Low-A is illegal in some states
Oathkeeper: Where Rafael Devers ranks
Kingslayer: Where Willie Calhoun ranks
Fantasy Impact ETA: 2020

29. Michael Kopech, RHP, Chicago White Sox (PS Rank: 40)
News from the Citadel: All of the strikeouts, all of the walks
Oathkeeper: Chris Archer
Kingslayer: A really good closer
Fantasy Impact ETA: 2018

30. A.J. Puk, LHP, Oakland Athletics (PS Rank: 59)
News from the Citadel: That’s a big man
Oathkeeper: Enough strikeouts to be an SP1
Kingslayer: Not enough command to be an SP3
Fantasy Impact ETA: 2019

31. Brent Honeywell, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays (PS Rank: 45)
News from the Citadel: Just a ho-hum week for the Futures Game MVP
Oathkeeper: The best version of Alex Cobb
Kingslayer: The best version of Jeremy Hellickson
Fantasy Impact ETA: 2018

32. Ryan Mountcastle, SS, Baltimore Orioles (PS Rank: NR)
News from the Citadel: Not a shortstop, not sure it matters
Oathkeeper: Daniel Murphy without the steals
Kingslayer: Ben’s New Garin Cecchini
Fantasy Impact ETA: Late 2019

TIER 5: The Children of the Forest

33. Mitch Keller, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates (PS Rank: 63)
News from the Citadel: Healthy and making short work of High-A
Oathkeeper: A high-end fantasy SP3
Kingslayer: An average fantasy SP4/5
Fantasy Impact ETA: 2019

34. Leody Taveras, OF, Texas Rangers (PS Rank: 55)
News from the Citadel: Holding his own in full-season ball at 18
Oathkeeper: A five-category OF star
Kingslayer: More of a speedy OF4
Fantasy Impact ETA: 2020

35. Jorge Alfaro, C, Philadelphia Phillies (PS Rank: 29)
News from the Citadel: No one’s looked this bored in the Lehigh Valley since Bret took Marketing 101 in college
Oathkeeper: The 25-homer catcher who was promised
Kingslayer: The former catcher who ran
Fantasy Impact ETA: 2018

36. Jorge Mateo, SS/2B/CF, New York Yankees (PS Rank: 18)
News from the Citadel: Double-A has invigorated the forgotten Yankee prospect
Oathkeeper: Trea Turner without the batting average
Kingslayer: Joey Gathright without being able to do this
Fantasy Impact ETA: Late 2018

37. Isan Diaz, SS, Milwaukee Brewers (PS Rank: 44)
News from the Citadel: The stat line isn’t as pretty as last year, but the bat is still true
Oathkeeper: Rougned Odor with more OBP
Kingslayer: A non-descript 20-homer hitter somewhere
Fantasy Impact ETA: 2019

38. Walker Buehler, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers (PS Rank: HM)
News from the Citadel: Crushing Double-A ... when healthy
Oathkeeper: Lance McCullers Jr.
Kingslayer: Yeah, what could go wrong with a Dodgers pitcher
Fantasy Impact ETA: Late 2018

39. Sean Newcomb, LHP, Atlanta Braves (PS Rank: 58)
News from the Citadel: He’s not a reliever!
Oathkeeper: Eduardo Rodriguez in a pitcher’s park
Kingslayer: He still might be a reliever
Fantasy Impact ETA: Right now

TIER 6: The Knights of Summer

40. Corey Ray, OF, Milwaukee Brewers (PS Rank: 25)
News from the Citadel: Turns out, A-ball is harder than college ball
Oathkeeper: A speed-heavy OF2
Kingslayer: Not enough contact skill for the speed to be impactful
Fantasy Impact ETA: 2019

41. Zack Collins, C, Chicago White Sox (PS Rank: 39)
News from the Citadel: Progress on defense, which is half the battle
Oathkeeper: Carlos Santana at catcher
Kingslayer: Carlos Santana at first base
Fantasy Impact ETA: 2019

42. Scott Kingery, 2B, Philadelphia Phillies (PS Rank: NR)
News from the Citadel: Umm...the power showed up
Oathkeeper: A true five-category second baseman
Kingslayer: Brian Roberts but with less speed
Fantasy Impact ETA: 2018

43. Willie Calhoun, 2B/OF, Los Angeles Dodgers (PS Rank: 76)
News from the Citadel: No matter the level, the man can hit
Oathkeeper: It’d be cool if Adam Duvall had 2B eligibility, no?
Kingslayer: He might be as bad at 2B as Adam Duvall
Fantasy Impact ETA: 2018

44. Fernando Tatis Jr., SS, San Diego Padres (PS Rank: NR)
News from the Citadel: The power/speed/age trifecta is always fun
Oathkeeper: A 20/20 shortstop
Kingslayer: Even his dad hit two grand slams in one inning
Fantasy Impact ETA: 2020

45. Royce Lewis, SS, Minnesota Twins (PS Rank: N/A)
News from the Citadel: The surprise #1 pick in the draft
Oathkeeper: Joe Mauer
Kingslayer: Tim Belcher
Fantasy Impact ETA: 2021

46. Derek Fisher, OF, Houston Astros (PS Rank: 88)
News from the Citadel: He’s not impressed by Triple-A arms
Oathkeeper: Is this ... is this another Steven Souza comp?
Kingslayer: Is this ... is this another Michael A. Taylor comp?
Fantasy Impact ETA: Late 2017

47. Chance Sisco, C, Baltimore Orioles (PS Rank: 62)
News from the Citadel: Still getting on base, still devoid of pop
Oathkeeper: A three-category contributor behind the plate
Kingslayer: The C.J. Cron of guys who have to move off catcher
Fantasy Impact ETA: 2019

48. Kyle Lewis, OF, Seattle Mariners (PS Rank: 49)
News from the Citadel: Kyle? He’s not even a maester.
Oathkeeper: A 30-homer outfielder who can help out elsewhere
Kingslayer: A Mariners prospect
Fantasy Impact ETA: Late 2019

49. Alex Verdugo, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers (PS Rank: 53)
News from the Citadel: Keeps on hitting, but not for power
Oathkeeper: David Peralta with more playing time
Kingslayer: Fancy Jesse Winker
Fantasy Impact ETA: Mid 2018

50. Lucas Giolito, RHP, Chicago White Sox (PS Rank: 11)
News from the Citadel: Father. Smith.
Oathkeeper: Warrior. Mother.
Kingslayer: Maiden. Crone.
Fantasy Impact ETA: Stranger.

Bret’s 51: Josh Naylor, 1B, San Diego Padres (PS Rank: NR)
News from the Citadel: He hasn’t stabbed anyone this year
Oathkeeper: It’s lazy, but a 30-homer version of Prince Fielder
Kingslayer: That’s probably too kind to Stone Garrett
Fantasy Impact ETA: 2020

Ben’s 51: Bobby Bradley, 1B, Cleveland Indians (PS Rank: 95)
News from the Citadel: Striking out less but still hitting dongers
Oathkeeper: A Logan Morrison who shuts up
Kingslayer: Look what just happened to Chris Carter ...
Fantasy Impact ETA: 2019

The Brotherhood Without Banners (Honorable Mention): Anthony Alford, OF, TOR; Kolby Allard, LHP, ATL; Yadier Alvarez, RHP, LAD; Yusniel Diaz, OF, LAD; Lucas Erceg, 3B, MIL; Mackenzie Gore, LHP, SD; Hunter Greene, RHP/SS, CIN; Jason Groome, LHP, BOS; Josh Hader, LHP, MIL; Alec Hansen, RHP, CHW; Adam Haseley, OF, PHI; Jahmai Jones, OF, LAA; Carter Kieboom, SS, WAS; Triston McKenzie, RHP, CLE; Mickey Moniak, OF, PHI; Blake Rutherford, OF, NYY; Sixto Sanchez, RHP, PHI; Jesse Winker, OF, CIN; Kyle Wright, RHP, ATL

Bret Sayre is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @BretSayreBP
Click here to see Bret's other articles. You can contact Bret by clicking here
Ben Carsley is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @bencarsley
Click here to see Ben's other articles. You can contact Ben by clicking here