June 19, 2017

Fantasy Freestyle

The Evolution and Decline of Francisco Lindor

by George Bissell

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“If Francisco Lindor were your shortstop, he would be perfect.” —Emma Baccellieri, Baseball Prospectus 2017 Annual

Hey Frankie. I know this is unexpected, but we need to talk for a minute. You’ve told me a million times that you don’t care about my fantasy team, but I’m not crazy about the changes in your batted-ball profile. In a fantasy landscape bereft of .300 hitters possessing both power and speed, you’ve been an oasis of fantasy goodness. We’ve had some great times. The home runs are fantastic, don’t get me wrong, but there are other shortstops who hit for power. Yes, I’m talking about Carlos Correa. Let’s cut to the chase: your batting average is killing me. Plus, I really like Chris Taylor.

Perhaps no player has undergone a more dramatic transformation this season than Francisco Lindor. Whether intentional or not, the 23-year-old has experienced one of the largest increases in fly-ball rate of any hitter from a year ago. He’s hitting for more power, but it’s come at the expense of his formerly elite batting average, which has the potential to torpedo his fantasy value. Life comes at you fast.

Last month, FanGraphs author Jeff Sullivan concluded a piece regarding Lindor’s ongoing offensive metamorphosis by saying,

“I don’t think that Francisco Lindor is blossoming into a power hitter. To me, that connotes a certain profile, with more whiffs and more jaw-dropping dingers. I think that Lindor is blossoming into a better hitter, a hitter with more power than he used to have. He’s on the Mookie Betts path, making the absolute most of what he is, given his own limitations. I don’t think it would be fair to suggest that Lindor’s becoming another Mike Trout. Rather, he could settle for being the next-best thing.”

At the time Sullivan wrote that piece (May 2), it wasn’t a crazy statement at all. It was justified. Especially considering that Lindor had slugged seven home runs in the first 25 games of the season. Since that post, Cleveland’s franchise cornerstone has hit .232/.292/.419 with six home runs and a pair of steals in 171 plate appearances. Those numbers do not include an 0-for-5 performance Sunday against a dreadful Minnesota pitching staff. Granted, these are arbitrary endpoints, but they illustrate how Lindor’s transition to an emphasis on air balls has caused his on-base skills to crater.

Francisco Lindor offensive comparison (2015-2017)

If you obtained a transcript of my recent text messages to other BP fantasy staffers (especially fellow Lindor enthusiast Mark Barry), a disturbing number of the messaged would highlight one specific element of Lindor’s recent performance, a growing propensity to pop up. Once again, the numbers don’t lie. Per FanGraphs batted-ball data, Lindor has hit nearly as many infield pop flies (five in just 284 PA) this season as he did in the previous two years (18 in 1,122 PA) combined. It’s staggering. The changes in his batted-ball profile paint a pretty good picture of his transformation.

Francisco Lindor batted-ball comparison (2015-2017)

The precipitous BABIP decline indicates that unless he gets back to the line-drive and ground-ball approach that defined his first seasons, he’s extremely unlikely to challenge for a .300 average again. Now, is it fair to complain about Lindor’s performance? Don’t we have bigger fish to fry? Sure, from a dynasty standpoint, there’s no reason to be alarmed. However, it’s worth noting that Lindor graded out as merely the seventh-ranked AL-only shortstop in my colleague Mike Gianella’s latest in-season fantasy valuations (updated through games of June 10). For the sake of comparison, Lindor checks in as the 11th-best mixed league shortstop on the ESPN player rater.

It’s possible Lindor truly is evolving into a vastly superior hitter overall (as Sullivan and others have suggested), and this recent sample of lackluster performance will be merely a blip on the radar when we reflect on his 2017 campaign. Without forecasting the long-term implications on his fantasy value, it’s clear that Lindor’s shift away from elite contributions in batting average and stolen bases lower his realistic floor for the immediate future. If it all comes together for him at the plate, Lindor’s offensive upside could potentially rival that of the other elites in the game, but there’s no debate that he’s enduring an extremely rough adjustment period right now.

Like a fidget spinner, there’s a lot going on with Lindor’s batted-ball profile, and it remains unclear if he’s making progress as a hitter, or potentially devolving into a less-valuable fantasy commodity long-term. Regardless of whether the balls are juiced or not, the league-wide proliferation of home runs has diminished the fantasy value of an individual home run. There might not be any SLG on the ground, but it’s likely that Lindor’s only path back to elite fantasy status is there. Sometimes hitting for more power is a bad thing.

George Bissell is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @GeorgeBissell
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