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June 9, 2017
Eyewitness Accounts
2017 Draft Prospects
by Jeff Long
Jacob (J.B.) Bukauskas
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Born: 10/11/1996 (Age: 20) |
Bats: Right |
Throws: Right |
Height: 5' 11" |
Weight: 200 |
Short, solid muscular build; three-quarter slot, inconsistent mechanics, significant head whack; velocity generated by whip in upper body, quick to the plate, occasionally falls off to first-base side; doesn’t use his lower half, arm-strength delivery, elite arm speed |
Jeff Long |
06/06/2017 |
Unaffiliated |
5/26/2017 |
50/High |
45; No. 5 Starter/Swingman |
2019 |
No |
FA |
50 |
70 |
91-96 |
98 |
High-90s offering plays down at present due to lack of movement, inconsistent command; 94-96 early, velocity dropped off after 50 pitches, better life at 91-93 in later innings, needs command and movement to play up to the velo |
SL |
40 |
50 |
81-88 |
90 |
Hard slider plays well off fastball, command below-average, lost it to his glove side multiple times; 86-88 (t90) early, better shape and movement at 81-83 later in the game, more bite and vertical action at lower velocity |
CH |
30 |
40 |
86-88 |
88 |
Shares velocity band with breaking ball; ,ell below-average command, struggled to turn over, lost to his arm side several times; abandoned it in middle innings |
Bukauskas has incredible physical tools, but his inability to harness them results in inconsistent performance. He showed some of the tools that have pushed him into top-10 consideration – his fastball topped out at 98 twice, and both secondaries flashed excellent movement. He struggled to command all three pitches, however, and fought to find consistent mechanics early on.
He displayed superior command and better movement on his breaking ball in particular with lower velocity deeper in the start. All five strikeouts came after his 65th pitch, with a breaking ball that looks more like a slurve than a power slider. If a team can get Bukauskas to engage his lower half through his delivery, there’s a chance he could maintain his higher velocity with the command he flashed at 92-94 mph.
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Brendan McKay
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Born: 12/18/1995 (Age: 21) |
Bats: Left |
Throws: Left |
Height: 6' 2" |
Weight: 220 |
Solid frame, more athletic than he appears at first glance; high three-quarter slot, simple, repeatable mechanics, fluid delivery, quick to the plate, occasionally falls off to the third base side; decent leg drive, above-average arm speed |
Jeff Long |
06/06/2017 |
Unaffiliated |
5/25/2017 |
70/Moderate |
60; No. 3 Starter |
2019 |
No |
FA |
50 |
60 |
91-93 |
95 |
Low-90s offering plays up due to feel for the pitch, able to move it around the zone at will, very advanced command, projection for improvement if he focuses on pitching, holds velo well |
FC |
40 |
50 |
88-90 |
91 |
Solid glove-side cutting action, induces weak contact; not a swing-and-miss pitch, shows potential for improvement, potential to be an average pitch |
CU |
45 |
60 |
78-83 |
83 |
Two versions, harder one with 10-4 action, slower variant with 12-6 break and better depth; flashes solid command of both versions, feel to manipulate, room for improvement in consistency |
CH |
50 |
60 |
85-87 |
88 |
Hard change flashes plus, might be better than the breaking ball(s); quality command of the pitch; small velo separation drives weak contact, generates some movement, commands it just off the zone as a chaser, potential plus utility |
McKay came into the 2017 season as one of the top pitchers in the draft class, and he has met those lofty expectations, striking out north of 12 batters an inning as Louisville's ace. He doesn’t have raw stuff that’ll blow opposing hitters away, but the arsenal is very good and he commands it with advanced precision to outsmart hitters. He's been worked hard in college, so there are some flags there, but his floor is very high with room for plenty of projection thanks to the command profile and baseline stuff. As a top 3 potential draft selection, McKay provides security with a chance to be a top-of-the-rotation starter with additional refinement.
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Brendan McKay
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Born: 12/18/1995 (Age: 21) |
Bats: Left |
Throws: Left |
Height: 6' 2" |
Weight: 220 |
Primary Position: 1B |
Secondary Position: RF |
Sturdy frame; more athletic than he gets credit for. |
Jeff Long |
06/06/2017 |
5/9/2017, 5/25/2017, 5/26/2017 |
Unaffiliated |
2020 |
Moderate |
70 |
55; Above-Average Regular |
No |
McKay showcases elite bat-to-ball skills, with an unexpected increase in in-game power this season. McKay’s hit tool can carry him through the minors; the only concern is whether it’ll play at first base where the demands on the bat are higher. There’s the potential for a real impact position player here, the type of player who’s an All-Star multiple times over the course of his career.
If you believe there’s potential for McKay to play the outfield long term, as I do, it makes his potential profile as a position player even more attractive.
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Logan Warmoth
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Born: 09/06/1995 (Age: 21) |
Bats: Right |
Throws: Right |
Height: 6' 0" |
Weight: 184 |
Primary Position: SS |
Secondary Position: 2B |
Athletic build; lean; room for growth and to fill out his frame. |
Jeff Long |
06/06/2017 |
5/25/2017, 5/26/2017, 5/27/2017 |
Unaffiliated |
2020 |
Moderate |
55 |
45; Second-Division Regular |
No |
Warmoth is a high-floor middle-infielder who seems to only hit hard line drives. He showed good patience at the plate and was robbed of three straight line drive base hits into left-center by a terrific stop by the shortstop.
What Warmoth lacks in ceiling, he makes up for with a high floor. He should be able to stick at shortstop, and hit well enough to not be a liability there. He won’t be a great defensive shortstop at the major league level, but he should play good enough defense and hit well enough to be a solid regular.
|
Brian Miller
|
Born: 08/20/1995 (Age: 21) |
Bats: Left |
Throws: Right |
Height: 6' 0" |
Weight: 177 |
Primary Position: CF |
Secondary Position: RF |
Slight build, physical projection remaining, room to fill out |
Jeff Long |
06/06/2017 |
5/25 - 5/27/2017 |
Unaffiliated |
2020 |
High |
60 |
45: Second-Division Regular |
No |
Miller was impressive in ACC Tournament play, collecting a number of hits and a home run while displaying excellent pitch recognition and plate discipline. This season Miller led the Tar Heels in batting average while walking more than he struck out. Miller makes center field look easy, taking good routes to the ball and controlling his body through difficult catches look easy. He has plenty of speed, and it plays on the base paths and in the field.
The biggest red flag on Miller's profile is his lack of raw power. He’ll likely hit for below-average power at the next level, with more doubles and triples driving his slugging percentage than homers. The hit tool and defense will have to carry him through the minor leagues.
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Drew Ellis
|
Born: 12/01/1995 (Age: 21) |
Bats: Right |
Throws: Right |
Height: 6' 2" |
Weight: 192 |
Primary Position: 3B |
Secondary Position: 1B |
Tall and athletic, some projection left as he fills out |
Jeff Long |
06/06/2017 |
5/9, 5/25-5/26/2017 |
Unaffiliated |
2021 |
High |
50 |
40; Corner bat on the bench |
No |
Ellis is a perfect example of a player whose value hinges on his hit tool. He projects as a borderline defender with an okay glove at third at the next level, and while the arm can play on the left side, there will be some accuracy issues along the way. Ellis has terrific raw power, but the question is whether or not he’ll hit enough to get to that power in games. His long swing will likely give some teams pause.
If Ellis proves that he can recognize and lay off secondaries, he can have a future as a low-average, 20-plus homer average regular at third.
|
Devin Hairston
|
Born: 04/07/1995 (Age: 22) |
Bats: Right |
Throws: Right |
Height: 5' 7" |
Weight: 157 |
Primary Position: SS |
Secondary Position: 2B |
Small frame, stocky and athletic, minimal projection left |
Jeff Long |
06/06/2017 |
5/9, 5/25-5/26/2017 |
Unaffiliated |
2021 |
High |
50 |
40; Below-Average Player |
No |
Hairston is a gritty player, the kind who gets mad when he doesn’t throw a runner out after tracking down a ball he had no right getting to. Despite his small stature, Hairston brings a big presence to the field. He swings hard and plays harder, sometimes to his detriment.
His swing can get too much loft in it, resulting in fly balls rather than base hits. Hairston can be a streaky hitter, launching line drives into left field with repetition before going on a run of fly balls that are caught for outs. If Hairston can hone his approach at the next level and stick at shortstop ,there’s a chance he could be a solid regular who plays above his tools.
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Jeff Long is an author of Baseball Prospectus.
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6 comments have been left for this article.
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This is great!
The Bukauskas report is particularly interesting to me because I missed him this year, and there are people who think of his SL as the best in the class. It’s interesting to see a report from a not great day, since I mostly hear how he could pitch in an MLB bullpen tomorrow.
I like the hit grade for McKay a lot, and I like that you are light on Warmoth’s arm. I think that I’ve seen it as a 55 or 60 somewhere for Warmoth, which seems ridiculous.
Warmoth had a couple of throws that left me wanting, but both were on the same day. I would buy a 50 arm on him ... 60 might be stretching it, but others have seen him more than I have.
Sometimes I think that there is an assumption in the scouting community that there has to be a certain number of players who fit into certain buckets in every draft. Of course, this is a fallacy, but Warmoth seems like a good example. I think his arm specifically gets inflated because he kind of needs it to fit into the college shortstop bucket. (He is not a lock to be a shortstop, in my opinion, even if he had a 60 arm.) It’s also hard to get an appropriate read, since he plays behind Bukauskas, Dalatri, and Baum. He literally could only be making one valuable throw per game. I have seen him do it from a few angles, which is a point in his favor, and why I would put a 50 on it, but its closer to a 45 than a 55 for me.
I guess my point is that I like what you did with these evaluations. Thanks again.
Agreed completely. And I appreciate the kind words!