June 7, 2017

Fantasy Freestyle

I Believe In Andrelton Simmons

by Eric Roseberry

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For years, baseball fans have been in awe of Andrelton Simmons’ defensive ability at shortstop. However, for fantasy purposes, there never were many reasons to pay attention to him given his production at the plate. Hardly anyone came into this season expecting Simmons to be an option for their fantasy roster. Baseball Prospectus didn't even list Simmons on its initial “Fantasy Tiered Rankings: Shortstop,” and he went undrafted in most leagues.

As we sit here in the first week of June, something interesting has been happening with Simmons. He’s been a fringe top-15 shortstop, and he’s slowly raising his fantasy profile. Simmons is providing owners with positive value, if minimal, in every standard fantasy category.

Even with this production, Simmons remains available in plenty of leagues. His ownership rate sits at 35.9 percent at ESPN. It’s a little higher at CBS, where he’s owned in 45 percent of leagues. He’s most available at Yahoo where he’s owned by only 17 percent of rosters.

What’s led to this increased production from Simmons at the plate? Is it time for owners to take his potential value more seriously? There are a few pieces of evidence that suggest you should consider adding Simmons to your roster for the rest of the season.

He’s Stealing More Bases

Before the season, fantasy analysts regularly discussed how important stolen bases are in the current climate. It’s understandable if you weren’t looking at Simmons as a solid source of steals in 2017. He did steal a career-high 10 bases in 2016, but from 2012-2015 his combined total was just 16.

However, Simmons has been running more. He already has six steals, and barring an injury he’ll set a new career high. His current total has him just inside the top-30 of stolen-base leaders, and he should finish with 15-20. That alone could add some nice value to your fantasy roster.

Recent developments in the Angels lineup could also provide a boost in this category. As of a week ago, Simmons has been hitting leadoff. He hasn’t performed well in the roll as of late, but the Angels don’t have many other options for that spot. In the short-term, this should help his SB and R totals. If you’re in need of steals, then now is the time to grab Simmons.

He’s Pulling for Power

Much has been written about the adjustments players are making at the plate to maximize power. It appears that Simmons is one of the players making these types of changes. He’s already connected on six home runs this season, which is more than he hit in 2015 or 2016. Simmons should finish with the second-highest home run total of his career (he hit 17 in 2013 for Atlanta), and that gives him an intriguing speed and power combination.

What’s led to this uptick in Simmons’ power numbers? It’s easy to forget that he’s only 27-years-old. It wouldn’t be surprising to see his power naturally increase over the next few seasons. However, there are a few changes to Simmons’ approach at the plate that are also worth discussing.

Simmons' pull percentage is at a four-year high (41.7 percent). That’s the highest pull rate he’s accumulated since ‘13 (his career high in HR). His hard-hit rate is up nearly 8 percent, and these two factors taken together help explain part of the reason he's hitting more homers.

Additionally, Simmons is driving inside pitches like he has at no other point in his career. The first image below notes Simmons career slugging percentage on balls in different parts of the zone:

The second image is his slugging percentage from 2017. The most noticeable difference between the two is his results on those inside pitches:

Given this reality, it shouldn’t surprise anyone that these locations in his profile account for most his home runs this season. The next charts compare Simmons’ career HR on BIP, along with the same metric from 2017.

Four of his six home runs this season have come on inside pitches:

Simmons is a Low-Risk Option

Simmons’ fantasy ceiling isn’t going to be anywhere near the top shortstops. However, if you’re looking for a player likely to be available, then Simmons brings lower risk than the other options. Given his low strikeout rate (9.8 percent) and high contact rate (88 percent), he’s not going to provide owners with a lot of empty nights due to high strikeout totals.

At the very least, Simmons is regularly going to put the ball in play. This fact at least gives him the opportunity to make positive things happen, and if his hard-hit rate stays up those chances increase. Maybe he won’t continue to hit home runs at this pace, but he has the potential to provide owners with solid production in batting average, stolen bases and runs. Simmons isn’t going to carry your fantasy roster to a title, but he can add positive value. That’s all some owners need to push their team over the top.