May 22, 2017

The Buyer's Guide

Justin Smoak

by Eric Roseberry

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The Buyer’s Guide is a weekly column designed to help fantasy owners assess a player who sees an increased level of interest during a given week. This column will focus on players who generally have lower than 40 percent ownership rates across various leagues.

It’s possible you’re in a position where you’re looking for a first baseman to plug into your fantasy lineup. Freddie Freeman owners are in that camp. There’s also a small list of players at the position who should either shortly return from injuries or are dealing with nagging aches and pains (Eric Thames, Greg Bird and Yonder Alonso). If you find yourself in the market for a first baseman, is Justin Smoak a player you should look to invest in?

Several fantasy owners have already answered “yes” to that question. Smoak’s ownership percentage jumped from 6.8 to 42 percent in ESPN leagues this week. In CBS leagues, Smoak went from 13 percent owned to 49 percent. Over at Yahoo, Smoak was the 12^th-most added player in the latest “Transaction Trends,” and his ownership rate sits at 43 percent.

Why all of this interest in Smoak? He’s already hit double-digit home runs this season, and he’s in the top-11 for first basemen by HR, R, RBI, and BA. Since May 11, Smoak’s production has been among the best at the position—.367/.500/.900 with 5 HR, 10 R, and 12 RBI. That’s the kind of production that will cause fantasy owners to take notice.

Are there reasons to explain Smoak’s early season success? If so, is he worth adding to your fantasy roster? We’ll try and answer that question in the latest Buyer’s Guide.

The Good

There are a lot of things to like regarding Smoak’s production at the plate this season. The different categories of his slash line (.279/.342/.550) are all well above his career averages (.226/.310/.400). Most fantasy owners might automatically expect that an elevated BABIP would be the main culprit in this scenario. His .290 BABIP is high when compared to his career mark (.264), but it’s not far off from his .295 full-season BABIP last year. For sake of comparison, Smoak hit just .217 a season ago.

One of the major reasons for this increase in production is a spike in Smoak’s contact rate. He’s making contact 94.3 percent of the time in the zone, which is 12 percent higher than his rate a year ago. His overall contact rate currently sits just above 80 percent. That rate of contact would be a career high for Smoak. Not surprisingly, the increased rate of contact has helped him cut his strikeout rate by 12-13 percent. If he’s able to keep that mark at 20 percent, it also would be a career best. Tristan Cockcroft of ESPN recently noted Smoak’s desire to focus more on contact this season.

Smoak’s success against left-handed pitching also has been a reason for his increased production. For his career, Smoak is hitting .230/.297/.383 against lefties. This season, those numbers have jumped to .400/.472/.833. Joshua Howsam of BP Toronto recently did a deep dive on Smoak’s changing approach at the plate, and he suggests that maybe fans shouldn’t be so surprised with Smoak’s success in this area.

There are a few other factors that have positively contributed to Smoak’s recent run. His hard-hit rate is up about 5 percent this season, and he’s cut his swinging-strike rate to a career low. When you begin to put these puzzle pieces together you start to get a compelling picture of a batter who’s made real progress at the plate.

The Bad

The concern many will have with Smoak is the same concern they’d have with any player hitting well above his career averages. Smoak’s track record suggests that he won’t be able to keep this up. No one expects him to produce for a full season like he has over the past week and a half. However, could fantasy owners hope that Smoak would hit .260 this season instead of .220-.230? PECOTA projects Smoak to hit .237 the rest of the way, and if you invest in him you need to be ready for the possibility that he could be a drain on your roster in this category.

Buyer’s Guide: Buy (if you need a 1B)

If you find yourself in the position where you need a long-term replacement at first (Freeman), or you need someone who can fill in from time to time, then Smoak is probably your best option available (if he’s still available). There are concrete reasons that suggest he’s taken a step forward at the plate. Also, you know he’s going to see regular playing time in Toronto. If/when the lineup gets healthy, it should only boost his opportunities to produce in a few other categories.

Will some of Smoak’s rate stats come down over the next few weeks? It’s very likely that they will. However, it’s starting to look like Smoak is now simply a better hitter than fantasy owners were expecting. Now is the time to invest if you’re looking for production at 1B or CI this season.