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May 4, 2017 Cheese in the KitchenA Darwinian Critique of Starting-Pitcher Height
“Man selects only for his own good: Nature only for that of the being which she tends.” The question of short starting pitchers is one that has always interested me, ever since Kevin Goldstein (#RIP) asked about it broadly on these pages way back in 2008. Does a pitcher’s height really matter in regard to his ability to get hitters out, particularly through multiple turns of a lineup? Is being tall an evolutionary predisposition for successful starting pitching? First and foremost, it’s probably helpful to confirm that starting pitchers are, in fact, a taller breed. And they are! Unequivocally and consistently. Bearing in mind that the average adult man in the United States stands just under 70 inches tall, here are the average heights of qualified starting pitchers in each of the past five years:
Compare this with an average reliever, who over the same span stood an average of 74.36 inches—it’s not a ton of variance, but it exists, and it exists consistently, year in and out: an average relief pitcher is shorter than his starting counterpart. So, then, what gives? Why is that? And why are pitchers of all stripes taller than the average bear? I though back about that KG (#RIP) piece, and a recurring argument in the comments stuck out. Here’s the most succinct version of it:
Interesting! Intrigued, I posed some open-ended questions about pitcher height to the rest of the prospect team on our Slack. Jeffrey Paternostro independently raised this very same theory, floating that “there is probably something to the idea that we select for pitchers even earlier than the pro ranks.” Pitchers in youth baseball, he went on to explain, tend to be the most athletic, coordinated players just by virtue of the physical demands of the act. So the shorter ones are more likely to move off to a premium position on the defensive spectrum, where, in turn, they’re more likely to gain their footholds that springboard them into the pro ranks. “If you’re a tall guy who throws hard,” he noted, “it’s right field or first base” for you when you’re not on the mound, and “if you have actual draft hopes, first base or a corner outfield is not ideal” (see Pratto, Nick in the current draft class). Then again, the preference for taller starting pitchers may be bigger than any of these individual factors. “This isn't just a baseball thing,” argued Mark Anderson. “Taller is generally a societal preference in most arenas, and that's been born out through evolution and the progression of civilizations. As much as there is some inherent bias for taller pitchers in baseball, [it’s unclear] if the preference occurs at any greater rate than in the rest of humanity.” Tabling the societal implications for another time (preferably with more whiskey handy), there are also the theories of plane and hitter perception at play here. There was agreement on the prospect team that evaluators tend to privilege plane as an asset for starting pitching prospects. The way we talk about it in Eyewitness Accounts tends to carry inherently positive implications. We know that “downhill plane” does indeed exist as a thing, because angles exist. What is less clear, however, is whether steeper angles really do produce a net advantage for taller pitchers, or at least the ones with the tallest release points. The data here is tepid. Carson Cistulli ran a quick-and-dirty study of ground-ball rates as they correlate to pitcher height back in 2012, and he found out that, well, they really don’t. I had Harry Pavlidis crunch the numbers for the subsequent and most-recent five-year range for good measure, and based off 15 combined years of data we can pretty safely say that there’s nothing to see here: As a class, tall pitchers are no better at generating ground-balls than shorter pitchers. The effective velocity argument, however, is still an interesting one. Thanks to all sorts of fun new toys, we now can do wondrous things in terms of measuring the difference between real and perceived velocity. We’ve known for a while now that extension to a point of release out in front of the pitching rubber can have a direct impact on the speed of a pitch as the batter sees it. We’ve seen how this effect plays out, and it’s not pretty for hitters. The closer a pitcher’s hand is to the plate at the point of release, the less time the hitter will have to make up his mind about whether or not to swing. And, at least in theory, taller pitchers with longer limbs can extend farther out from the rubber to deliver their pitches. The problem with this as it relates to broad-based generalizations is that, as with most things we generalize about, the causes and effects of perceived velocity differ from pitcher to pitcher. “Effective and perceived velocity is case-by-case,” warned Steve Givarz. Taller pitches “can ride down the mound better in theory, but so many of them have poor extension.” This is a key point: just because a pitch is thrown by a tall guy does not mean that a batter can automatically gird his loins for outsized perceived velocity. So where does all of this leave us with regard to pitcher height and efficacy? Perhaps most importantly, it leaves us with the specter of unnatural selection afoot. Back in 2010, Glenn P. Greenberg published a deliciously in-depth study in the Fall Baseball Research Journal for SABR about pitcher height and likelihood of effectiveness. The study is a worthwhile cover-to-cover read, but he found that, despite the best efforts of the scouting and front office communities, there just wasn’t any evidence that shorter pitchers made for worse or less durable starting pitchers than taller guys. Kyle Boddy went even deeper on this subject, arguing this past summer that the tendency for evaluators to conflate height with durability is further problematic from a kinematic standpoint. “From a purely mechanical look at pitching,” he concluded, “the taller pitcher not only has the potential to have worse command problems due to the length of the forearm (not to mention the humerus), but also has a higher multiplier for torque and therefore stress on the structures of the human body.” “Stuff,” Steve declared, presumably in his finest Goldblumian tenor, “finds a way.” Marcus Stroman can attest to that. But it sure seems like the surviving pool of professional pitchers isn’t necessarily the fittest, and within that structure there remains an undue tax on the evaluation of shorter pitchers. So, armed (eh?) now with our realizations about what may just be a faulty general bias against short pitching prospects, let’s turn our attention to some arms who may get unduly dinged for their vertical challenges and therefore make for solid value targets in dynasty formats. Francis Martes (RHP)—Houston Astros (Triple-A Fresno) Martes is perhaps an exception to the value component of this discussion, rated as he typically is among the elite pitching prospects. But as a hurler whose listed height of 6-foot-1 might be on the…optimistic side, and whose round, compact frame has drawn some derision as a challenge to his prospective durability, he fits the bill as a guy who probably draws a shade too much skepticism given his athleticism and body control. He throws what remains one of the best curveballs I’ve seen live, and for my money is as no-bones-about-it a frontline pitching prospect as you’ll find. For a second straight year he’s come out of the gate relatively slowly, with some early command issues leading to an ugly, even-up K:BB rate. He had his start skipped this week on account of a minor abdominal strain, and the combination could just provide you with your last window of opportunity to acquire him for a marginal discount before he storms the Houston gates later this summer. Carson Fulmer (RHP)—Chicago White Sox (Triple-A Charlotte) Fulmer’s undersized frame and high-octane delivery were the subject of immense pre-draft scrutiny in 2015, when the stuff and performance suggested a potential top-overall pick, but those concerns weighed heavily in ultimately bumping him down the ladder a couple rungs to the No. 8 pick. It’s been a mixed bag for Fulmer since signing, as he fast-tracked all of the way to a big-league debut last year despite a mediocre run of production in the high minors. The questions about his landing spot have as much to do with his tempo and violence on the back end of the delivery as they do his stature, though narratives certainly don’t help his cause. The walk rate is down thus far at Triple A, but so is the strikeout rate. The interplay between those two over the next couple of months should tell us how much potential for second-half value there’s going to be here, and re-drafters would be wise to take note. Justus Sheffield (LHP)—New York Yankees (Double-A Trenton) Chaz Fiorino just wrote up Sheffield in a recent Notes From the Field, so I’ll refer you to that for the most current goods on the youngest pitcher in the Eastern League. He’s another shorter pitcher who does well to offset his height with extension, and athletic lefties with heaters into the mid-90s tend to find big-league work, so despite whatever warts (just and unjust alike), there’s a higher-probability of some form of return on investment in medium-depth leagues. Andrew Moore (RHP)—Seattle Mariners (Double-A Arkansas) Moore’s been dinged for his size since his days of dominating for Oregon State, and the scrutiny only intensified after Seattle popped him in the competitive balance round in 2015. He throws fringy spin to boot, so the margin for error here is not the biggest. Fortunately for Moore, he’s been able to survive and thrive thanks to outstanding command of a fastball that gets on guys quickly thanks to his tall, out-front release point and high spin rate. An excellent changeup plays off the same line and arm speed, and his up-tempo pace has produced outstanding results at every professional stop, including nearly 140 Double-A innings now. He’s certainly not the sexiest pitching prospect to target even in medium-depth leagues, but in leagues with 16-plus teams his future kind of steady back-end production should hold plenty of appeal. Sixto Sanchez (RHP)—Philadelphia Phillies (Low-A Lakewood) I’m contractually obligated to lower the tone of my voice when speaking Sixto’s name, and don’t think for a second that Paternostro’s ears didn’t just spike when he heard even the muted tones. Sanchez is 18 and a whopping four starts into his full-season career, yet there are already signs of in-progress breakout here, which Jarrett Seidler touched on in an excellent piece a couple of weeks ago. The 20-year-old Dominican does his work with premium arm speed that helps him generate plus-plus velocity, albeit with some requisite shorter-guy effort. The athleticism and, in turn, command profile here is what really stands out for such a precocious arm with such big stuff. If you’re looking for a helium candidate in the early going, Sixto’s a fine candidate—and one who might come a little cheaper right now than he otherwise should as a smaller-framed hurler. Freddy Peralta (RHP)—Milwaukee Brewers (High-A Carolina) Standing 5-foot-11, Peralta is an interesting case, as in spite of a low three-quarter, crossfire delivery he has managed to generate the best out-front extension of any “undersized” (read: less than 6-foot-2) starter in all of minor league baseball this year. The release point helps a fastball with already nasty arm-side run in the low-90s play up that much further, and it gives cover to secondaries that, while they flash utility, still have a ways to go with their consistency. After struggling in his first taste of High A last summer, the 20-year-old’s first five starts this spring have yielded excellent results, with 35 whiffs and a .185 average-against across 23 innings. His size and delivery play into conventional wisdom assumptions about a bullpen future, but there’s a legitimate three-pitch starter’s kit here. Marcos Diplan (RHP)—Milwaukee Brewers (High-A Carolina) If you’re sensing a theme here about the Brewers’ High-A rotation, you’re not alone—and you can toss a third rotation-mate, Jordan Yamamoto, onto the pile of shorter righties with the highest extension rates in the minors. Diplan is perhaps the most heralded of the three, able as he is to bump 94 with a slider that’ll flash plus. Craig vetoed his inclusion in our Milwaukee Top 10 list this past winter, but it was a close call, and given that Diplan will pitch all of 2017 as a 20-year-old in High A he’ll have ample opportunity to hold his own and force the issue by this time next year. Vladimir Gutierrez (RHP)—Cincinnati Reds (High-A Daytona) I touched on Gutierrez in a ”Minor League Update” a week ago, noting that the Reds’ seven-figure investment had looked the part thus far in his stateside debut. He’s got some Tiante in him, with a closed-off front side, through his leg kick, followed by a massive stride that gets him farther downhill than his modest 6-foot frame should be expected to get. There’s danger of over-extension and unintended elevation from his motion, but while he has indeed yielded some hits with loose command in the zone thus far, his control’s been solid and he’s been missing bats. Keep an eye on this one. J.B. Bukauskas (RHP)—University of North Carolina Bukauskas is today where Carson Fulmer was two years ago, as a dominant major-conference ace who has done just about all he can do in his draft spring, but who might slip down below another college arm or two on draft boards thanks in large part to his maxed-out 5-foot-11 frame. Regardless, he’ll be one of the first pitchers in this draft class—if not the first—taken in summertime dynasty drafts, insofar as any other leagues besides my dorky home league have one of those. Logan Allen (LHP)—University High School (FL) Allen is, per our own Steve Givarz, one of the two best prep left-handers in Florida, which puts him high up on the short list of prep left-handers in the country. At 5-foot-11 and without a ton of physical projection beyond that, he’s a quintessentially dinged-for-being-short guy. Steve wrote him up about a month ago, and he’ll warrant deep-league attention as an perhaps unheralded pick-up opportunity for those in leagues without player universe restrictions. Floral arrangements of appreciation to Rob McQuown, Ben Lindbergh, and Justin Perline for data assists.
Wilson Karaman is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @vocaljavelins
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TDGX Transactions: Week 6
I don't know about your experience, but in my youth coaches put arms at short and 3B. I even played SS as a lefty because I was the kid that could make an on-target throw to first reliably (pitcher was taken already). I think that in my day coaches thought a kid making the throw to second or home to record an out was something of a fantasy.