Circle Change: Buster ... (04/05)
Fantasy Freestyle: Fix... (04/05)
the archives are now free.
3 comments have been left for this article. BP Comment Quick Links
| |
|
|
April 6, 2017 Fantasy FreestyleThe PFM and The Model Portfolio
Every March, at least a few readers ask me “Why don’t you just use the PFM instead of your bids, Mike?” Over the years, I have answered this question a few different ways. But today I thought I’d take a different approach. Inspired by a reader question last month, I decided to take the Player Forecast Manager's valuations for a 15-team mixed league and apply them to Baseball Prospectus’ My Model Portfolio exercise from March. As a reminder, this is what our authors did in that series. In the “My Model Portfolio” series, the fantasy staff will create its own team within a $260 auction budget using Mike Gianella’s latest mixed-league Bid Limits for 2017. The scoring is 5x5 standard roto. The roster being constructed includes: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, 5 OF, 2 UTIL, and 9 P. The Process The only change I made to this exercise is that I added a second catcher to the team and removed the second utility player, since my bids are designed to mirror the Tout Wars mixed-auction format. At the end of the season, I want to test this team not against the model portfolio teams but rather the mixed Tout Wars teams. The Offense
This is a fairly risk-averse team. Where my bid limits are somewhat cautious with Joseph and Travis, the PFM believes that they’ll be solid contributors. Calhoun and Ellsbury are not the most exciting players, but the PFM thinks that they will at least contribute at the levels they did over the last few years. The Pitching
You can’t argue against purchasing Clayton Kershaw. While my bid limit sits at $42, it is admittedly a compromise with at least three separate goals: trying to spread money across a pitching staff, building in some risk because he is a pitcher, and also giving deference to Clayton Kershaw. I have no qualms with spending $50 or more on him in a mixed format. The PFM spits out mostly veterans, which isn’t surprising. A former AL Cy Young winner, a reliable-yet-aging workhorse, and a solid arm who had one poor year with the White Sox back up Kershaw at $10 apiece. This is a very strong base for a pitching staff. With a pitching staff like this, my strategy typically would be to bottom out with one dollar starters and spend $77 on the entire staff. The Prediction This is the section of the model portfolio where our staff came up with predictions for their teams. For a league that doesn’t play out, going with a balanced team is a solid approach. Something the PFM cannot do that a human can is look for one-dollar fliers that the PFM puts below replacement level. Someone is going to get this year’s Aledmys Diaz—we just don’t know who that is yet. I will revisit this team at the end of the regular season. Like any “test” of the PFM, it is far from perfect, but this is the goal of the PFM: to build a hypothetical team that is a successful fantasy franchise.
Mike Gianella is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @MikeGianella
|
Thanks Mike. This highlights key issues with the PFM. After several years of using it as a tool, I finally gave up. The values are always skewed. And unless you want a team full of closers, speedsters, and low-end players, you will do well to follow Mike G's values vs. the PFM's. Mike's values are more grounded in market reality.
I find it useful to be guided by both. When discrepancies come up in bid values, then that's where as an owner I can make my own decisions. PFM is usually breakout averse, so if I see Mike G has a higher bid I'll do some research to see if I too believe that player isn't a candidate for regression. If PFM has the higher bid, I'll try to figure out if I want to bullish as well or if I'm just not that big of a fan of a Tommy Joseph or Devin Travis.
However, when it comes to the star players PFM definitely doesn't fit my league's market. It's more of a relative ranking at that point and I can pick what I want to spend and who I want to target.