April 4, 2017

Closer Report

Week 1

by Matt Collins

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Welcome back to another season of the Closer Report. If you’ve been reading here for the past couple of years, you’ll recognize me. This is the third-consecutive season that I’ll be handling this column, which every other writer on staff views as a punishment. Generally, I pick three or four situations a week to take a deep-ish dive on, and three or four more for quick hits. Of course, we’ve only had two days of baseball and not much news has come out just yet. So, instead, I'll focus on 10 situations of interest to start the season, and I’ll take a brief look at each of those today.

Additionally, I have a Closer Grid that I do my best to update relatively quickly. When I make a change, I’ll highlight in yellow. The third column might not seem as much obvious use to fantasy players; rather, it is for relievers that I generally like. Some could close games this year, and some could be of interest to dynasty players who want to keep an eye on young relievers. Mostly, though, it’s just pitchers who I think are fun. Anyway, with all of the housekeeping out of the way, let’s get to the good stuff.

Nationals

My biggest miss of draft season in regard to closer was almost certainly the Nationals situation. All spring, I didn’t understand why Shawn Kelley wasn’t being drafted higher. He’s clearly the best reliever in that bullpen, and Dusty Baker is a fairly traditional manager. Kelley getting the closer gig was a slam dunk in my eyes. Instead, they named Blake Treinen to that role. Now, I’m not cutting Kelley right away, because I think Treinen could have a fairly short leash. He’s a really good reliever, but since it took Baker so long to even name a closer it leads me to believe he also won’t hesitate to make a change. Additionally, Kelley should provide good value with his ratios in the meantime. I wouldn’t say I’m expecting Treinen to lose the job soon, but it’s realistic enough to hang onto Kelley at a time where there’s not much reliever value on the waiver wire.

Rockies

While Kelley was my biggest miss, it wasn’t my only one. I also was banking on Adam Ottavino taking the closer gig in Colorado. I know the Rockies made a fairly high-profile splash in signing Greg Holland, and he’s not that far removed from being one of the premiere relievers in baseball. However, he did miss all of last year, and Ottavino looked outstanding when he returned from his own long-term injury midway through last season. Holland was solid in spring and I think the Rockies will give him a little bit of a longer leash given their commitment to him this winter. I like Ottavino a lot, but I’m more likely to drop him before Kelley (and yes, I do own both in one league). Some of it is because of the leash, but it also is just a product of calling Coors Field home. I suspect that Ottavino will be the closer at some point, but if another closer option emerges early in the year I won’t wait around for the Rockies.

Blue Jays

Right before the season started, the Blue Jays announced that Roberto Osuna would start on the 10-day disabled list. This was surprising, considering that he pitched toward the end of camp. This likely moves Jason Grilli to the top of their depth chart, although he struggled in the opener Monday, and that could open the door for Joe Biagini. Don’t get too excited about either one, though, because Osuna is expected to be back as soon as he’s eligible to return.

Mets

We all knew that Jeurys Familia was going to be suspended to start the season, but we weren’t sure for how long. It came down last week that he’d miss New York's first 15 games, rather than the 30 that some speculated. This is a bit of a hit to those who drafted Addison Reed for a month’s worth of saves. He’ll still help with ratios, but Reed is not nearly as valuable as some were led to believe.

Angels

On Monday, manager Mike Scioscia told the presumed favorite for the Angels closer role, Cam Bedrosian, that they'd be rolling with a committee approach for the ninth inning. This was a bit surprising, considering that Huston Street is hurt and Bedrosian is clearly the best remaining option. One could be tempted to jump after Andrew Bailey on waivers, because he’s the next-most likely to get saves for L.A. I'd hold off, though. Bedrosian is an outstanding pitcher and the Angels recognize that. He’ll get the majority of the chances early on and I suspect he’ll eventually win the job outright. Even if Bedrosian loses the job when Street returns, the latter is always an injury risk. If anything, I’d use this opportunity to buy low on Bedrosian.

Reds

There’s not much good about the Reds heading into the season, but I’m pretty fascinated by the back of their bullpen. Raisel Iglesias is the most popular fantasy target on the staff, and it makes sense. He’s the most talented. However, it wouldn’t surprise me if they decide he’s better off in a multi-inning, Andrew Miller-esque role. The most likely way this happens, in my eyes, is if Michael Lorenzen steps up. I’m not saying I’d add him right now, because there’s not a ton of value just yet. But the upside is there, as he showed last year. If he can up his strikeout rate a bit, I think he could take the closer gig, as guys like Drew Storen and Tony Cingrani fade, and Iglesias moves into a more impactful role. Iglesias is my favorite pitcher on this roster, but by midseason I think Lorenzen will be the best for fantasy purposes.

Athletics

The most mysterious closer situation in baseball is in Oakland. It’s not that they’re officially going with a committee, it’s that they haven’t said anything about the role. Without any information, I’d just assume Ryan Madson still has the job. He took a big step back last year, though, and is entering his age-36 season. I don’t have a ton of trust in him, and believe it’s only a matter of time until Sean Doolittle takes the job. My only concern with Doolittle is that he could be traded if/when Oakland falls out of it again, which means he’d only have a couple of months—tops—to get saves.

Diamondbacks

Fernando Rodney is a popular pick to lose his role first, and for good reason. While he shows flashes of greatness, he’s incredibly erratic. That’s not the best look for a closer. With that being said, the Diamondbacks don’t have anyone who figures to challenge him immediately. Randall Delgado is likely second in the pecking order, and he had a 113 DRA- last year. I, too, believe that Rodney will eventually lose this job, but someone else will have to step up first, and it’s not clear who that’ll be or when they’ll do it.

Cubs

The defending champs have an unambiguous closer situation. The ninth inning belongs to Wade Davis. With that being said, Hector Rondon is my favorite set-up option that no one seems to talk about. He’ll get you strikeouts, keep his WHIP down and his home run issues last year were probably a fluke. At worst, he’s a near-elite non-closer. There also is the injury risk associated with Davis, which would obviously open up a spot for Rondon. I think I’m more wary of Davis than most, but either way Rondon deserves to be treated more like Nate Jones and less like Joaquin Benoit (who immediately follows Rondon in NFBC ADP).

Matt Collins is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @MattRyCollins
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