March 31, 2017

Fantasy Auction Values

Fifth Edition, 2017

by Mike Gianella

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Here it is, the fifth and final bid limit update. Opening Day is Sunday (!) and at long last all that hard work and preparation will come to fruition with a kick ass auction this coming weekend. Updates below are either because of injury and playing time changes or because the results of the Tout Wars auctions this weekend made me reconsider a bid.

Changes of two dollars in either direction are listed below for players with significant value. Mixed league bids will reflect the same valuation change unless otherwise noted. Players whose prices have been updated because of the Tout Wars auction results will be updated in the AL and NL-only sections only.

AMERICAN LEAGUE
C.J. Cron $12 (previous $10)
Luis Valbuena $4 (previous $6)
Valbuena’s injury opens additional playing time up for Cron early in the season. I suspect this was not a true platoon even if Valbuena had started the season in full health.

Matt Holliday $10 (previous $8)
Holliday is having a good spring. He should have a little more value than I was initially projecting.

Carlos Rodon $9 (previous $13)
Rodon’s injury doesn’t sound serious, but pitching injuries make me wary.

Drew Smyly $9 (previous $11)
See Carlos Rodon.

Collin McHugh $9 (previous $11)
Also hurt. His injury does not seem serious but, again, pitching injuries.

Jharel Cotton $9 (previous $7)
Cotton is having a solid spring, and the smart money seems to like him. I want to draft him so I can make a joke at my auction from a 13-year old movie.

Raul Mondesi $9 (previous $7)
Won the second base job. The speed makes him worth more than a low-end flier in AL-only.

Danny Valencia $9 (previous $6)
Dan Vogelbach $4 (previous $10)
Vogelbach’s demotion paves the way for additional at bats for Valencia in April and perhaps beyond depending on how Vogelbach does in the minors.

Delino DeShields $8 (previous $2)
Jurickson Profar $8 (previous $6)
If DeShields gets as little as 300 plate appearances, there is plenty of deep league value because of his steals. Profar might not be an everyday player, but he looks healthy this spring and this price might still be a bargain.

Derek Norris $5 (previous NO BID)
Signed with the Rays.

Kennys Vargas $4 (previous $9)
Byung-Ho Park $4 (previous $1)
Robbie Grossman $3 (previous $1)
The Twins optioned Park yesterday, but in leagues where you can bid on minor leaguers at auction, he should have a bid. Vargas will start the season on the DL. Grossman is going to be the Opening Day DH.

Lonnie Chisenhall $4 (previous $7)
Starting the season on the DL.

Jacob May $4 (previous NO BID)
Charlie Tilson $2 (previous $4)
Cody Asche $2 (previous $4).

All three of these players are likely to turn a profit in AL-only at these prices. You don’t want to pay par for any of them. Several AL-only players are going to earn between $6-10 and cost a buck.

TOUT WARS Adjustments
Corey Dickerson $15 (previous $13)
Kendrys Morales $15 (previous $13)
Michael Brantley $10 (previous $13)
Hyun-Soo Kim $7 (previous $9)
Norichika Aoki $5 (previous $7)

NATIONAL LEAGUE
Eduardo Nunez $18 (previous $21)
Nunez is supposed to be fine and ready to go on Opening Day, but shoulder injuries make me nervous, and the fact that he didn’t play the field for a good portion of this spring also makes me nervous. Even if he starts the season as the Giants every day third baseman, I suspect that Nunez will miss time at some point during the season.

Jeurys Familia $18 (previous $15)
Major League Baseball handed down a 15-game suspension to Familia under MLB’s domestic violence policy. This was lower than the 30-game suspension many were expecting.

Tony Watson $14 (previous $16)
I’m not as nervous about Watson as some of my peers seemed to be at Tout Wars (where I got Watson for $10) but he isn’t nearly as steady as the top options, so I am moving him down a couple of ticks to reflect this. His spring numbers stink, but most of this is because of one horrible outing.

Raisel Iglesias $10 (previous $8)
Drew Storen $2 (previous $4)
Iglesias will start Opening Day on the Reds’ roster and not on the 10-day DL (this sounds weird).

Blake Treinen $10 (previous $2). Mixed: $8
Koda Glover $3 (previous $9). Mixed: NO BID
Shawn Kelly $2 (previous $7). Mixed: NO BID

Feel free to give Glover and/or Treinen more of your auction dollars if you want, but given that Dusty Baker just gave the job to Treinen it is likely that Treinen holds onto the job for a while. My guess is that Treinen closes for at least half the year, with Glover getting the opportunities mid-year if he performs in a set-up role. But who knows? No one predicted Treinen would get the job, including me.

David Freese $8 (previous $6)
Jung-ho Kang $3 (previous $8)
Freese is the Pirates starting third baseman for the foreseeable future, and possibly all season. It doesn’t look good for Kang right now, although he is obviously a great bargain if he makes it to the United States at all in 2017.

Andrew Susac $3 (previous $5)
He’ll start the season on the disabled list. I dig the potential, but it is difficult to recommend a career backup catcher who is starting the season hurt at more than a $2-3 bid.

TOUT WARS Adjustments
Eric Thames $18 (previous $16)
Javier Baez $17 (previous $15)
Greg Holland $7 (previous $9)



Mike Gianella is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @MikeGianella
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