March 27, 2017

My Model Portfolio

Not Cutting Corners

by Greg Wellemeyer

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Roster

POSITION	PLAYER	PRICE
C	Yadier Molina	5
1B	Joey Votto	36
2B	Daniel Murphy	22
SS	Jose Peraza	12
3B	Josh Donaldson	28
CI	Justin Turner	17
MI	Cesar Hernandez	3
OF	Christian Yelich	21
OF	Kyle Schwarber	17
OF	Dexter Fowler	8
OF	Ender Inciarte	4
OF	Michael Conforto	1
UT	Greg Bird	3
UT	CJ Cron	1
TOTAL $		178

POSITION	PLAYER	PRICE
P	Noah Syndergaard	26
P	Chris Archer	20
P	Aaron Sanchez	11
P	Marcus Stroman	11
P	Jon Gray	4
P	Daniel Norris	4
P	Ivan Nova	2
P	Nate Jones	3
P	Felipe Rivero	1
TOTAL		82

Player Notes

C – Yadier Molina ($5): In years past I’ve paid the premium for Posey. Now that the top is more crowded, I’m back to bargain shopping at catcher.

1B – Joey Votto ($36): Found myself with a pile of money to spend on the corners after addressing other positions and decided to pay up for well-rounded, stable skills.

2B – Daniel Murphy ($22): Big believer in the version of Murphy we’ve seen since mid-2015. If that guy shows up again, this is an easy profit.

SS – Jose Peraza ($12): Earned $12 in less than half a season in 2016.

3B – Josh Donaldson ($28): Too much price disparity between Donaldson at $28 and the Arenado/Bryant/Machado trio at $39-40.

CI – Justin Turner ($17): Owns prime real estate in the Dodgers batting order, slugged .491 in each of the past three seasons, and you can tie that power output to a mechanical change. I don’t question whether he’ll perform as long as he can stay healthy.

MI – Cesar Hernandez ($3): Hit .313, stole eight bases, and scored 38 runs after becoming Philly’s full-time leadoff hitter in late July. Could steal 25+ with better efficiency, is 4-for-4 this spring for whatever that’s worth.

OF – Christian Yelich ($21): I fully buy last year’s breakout and think there’s still more room for growth if he can continue to shift his batted-ball mix away from grounders.

OF – Kyle Schwarber ($17): Could put up massive counting stats if he’s the Cubs primary leadoff hitter, even if he’s limited against lefties.

OF – Dexter Fowler ($8): Underrated, steady production. Will pile up runs from atop the Cardinals lineup.

OF – Ender Inciarte ($4): Earned $14 in 131 games last season, nothing in the profile that suggests he can’t repeat.

OF – Michael Conforto ($1): I’m not sure when or where or how the playing time is gonna come but I’d wager a very large sum of money that Conforto earns more than a dollar.

UTIL – Greg Bird ($3): Ideal combination of skill set and home park, spring performance suggests the power is back to pre-injury level.

UTIL – C.J. Cron ($1): Cheating a little here since Valbuena sustained an injury after Mike released the bid limits. Even so, it was hard to envision the Angels limiting one of their best controllable hitters to give at-bats to a 31-year-old free agent.

P – Noah Syndergaard ($26): Best combination of price and upside among the aces. Probably the most risk too.

P – Chris Archer ($20): Elite skills were still present in 2016 despite surface-level run prevention numbers that suggest otherwise. Fixed walk problem mid-season, can be a back end SP1 if he gets the homers under control.

P – Aaron Sanchez ($11): I don’t think Sanchez win the AL ERA crown again, but I don’t see much reason to fade his 2016 numbers heavily. He earned $21 last season.

P – Marcus Stroman ($11): I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Stroman was this year’s Sanchez, a ratio stabilizer who provides a helpful strikeout total because of innings volume rather than per inning excellence.

P – Jon Gray ($4): Earned twice this much last season with a 4.61 ERA. Inexplicably ran up a 4.91 ERA on the road, which won’t happen again.

P – Daniel Norris ($4): Last month of 2016 points towards a long-awaited breakout, can earn this back even if he hits the 15-day DL a time or two.

P – Ivan Nova ($2): Don’t completely trust that he’s the guy we saw after the trade but willing to pay $2 to find out.

P – Nate Jones ($3), Felipe Rivero ($1): I’m not a heavy investor in relievers, but I’m not usually a punter either. I didn’t like the values on low-end closers this year, so I opted to speculate instead. It’s no secret that the White Sox will look to move Robertson and that Jones is next in line. Watson is also a pending free agent for a club that could be looking to re-tool by mid-summer. Rivero, the Pirates’ primary return for Mark Melancon last summer, is plenty capable as a replacement.

Greg Wellemeyer is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @gregwellemeyer
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