March 27, 2017

My Model Portfolio

Trying to Find a Balance

by Matt Collins

the archives are now free. All Baseball Prospectus Premium and Fantasy articles more than a year old are now free as a thank you to the entire Internet for making our work possible. Not a subscriber? Get exclusive content like this delivered hot to your inbox every weekday. Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get instant access to the best baseball content on the web.

Subscribe for $4.95 per month Recurring subscription - cancel anytime. Subscribe for $39.95 for one year a 33% savings over the monthly price! Purchase a $39.95 gift subscription a 33% savings over the monthly price! Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

The Process

Every year, I think this project is going to be so much easier than it actually is. You would think I’d have learned by now, but I have not because I’m an idiot. That happened again this year, although it was a little easier because I didn’t pin myself to such specific dollar splits between hitting and pitching. Ideally, I wanted a 180/80 split, but if I went over in either direction I wasn’t too concerned.

On the hitting side, I was looking for a balance between all five categories. Of course, it’s much harder to predict some categories than others. With that in mind, I wanted to place the most emphasis on power and speed and fill in some other spots with high-AVG players.

For pitching, I had two names to lead my starting and relief staffs, and then I would build from there. We’ll see who they are below, but I found that their values were conducive to this strategy. After that, I figured I’d get one more high-end SP and fill the rotation out with cheap arms. On the relief side, I was planning for a high-end set-up man along with one of the low-tier closers that no one else seems to like.

Hitters

POS	PLAYER	BID
C	Jonathan Lucroy	20
1B	Hanley Ramirez	19
2B	Dee Gordon	20
3B	Jose Ramirez	15
SS	Tim Anderson	11
CI	Greg Bird	3
MI	Neil Walker	9
OF	George Springer	26
OF	Yoenis Cespedes	25
OF	Adam Eaton	15
OF	Andrew Benintendi	13
OF	Domingo Santana	4
U	Victor Martinez	3
U	Cesar Hernandez	3
	Total	186

As I said above, I wasn’t as concerned with finding an even 180/80 split this year, and ended up going $6 over that budget. I was fine with that, because I’m really happy with how my lineup turned out. I got a few of my favorites targets this year in George Springer and Dee Gordon. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if we’re talking about both of them as first-round picks in drafts next spring.

Gordon in particular will be a huge boost to my stolen base totals. To give myself even more help in that area I went with Tim Anderson. I’ve gone back and forth on the White Sox shortstop all spring, because I’m not entirely sold on his bat, but I figure they’ll be aggressive enough with their young building block that he’ll get his steals even if his OBP isn’t up to snuff. I should get around 20 more with Jose Ramirez, and each of Andrew Benintendi, Adam Eaton, and George Springer should give me season-ending totals in the teens. My last addition to the roster was Cesar Hernandez, who likely won’t repeat last year’s overall production but should keep most of the steals.

I don’t think I’m as deep in the power department as I’d like to be or as I am in steals, but I still have some big bats who should give me a boost. Hanley Ramirez had a power breakout of sorts in 2016, and even without David Ortiz in the lineup he should be able to repeat that. I’m a believer in Greg Bird’s power and think he’ll be able to take advantage of Yankee Stadium and other AL East parks even if he doesn’t help at all in AVG. In the outfield, Springer and Yoenis Cespedes could each give me at least 30 home runs and Domingo Santana can give me 20 with the upside for even more. Victor Martinez is sort of a wildcard at his age, but I think I can expect something close to 20 dingers from him this year, and the same can be said of Neil Walker.

Then, it was just about filling it out with some AVG and hoping the runs and RBI will come. I was planning to go cheap at catcher, but I needed some help in this category and other than a down 2015 Jonathan Lucroy has been good for something close to a .300 AVG. While Gordon’s main category is steals, he’s another big contributor here, as is Ramirez. Towards the end of my roster, Eaton, Benintendi, Martinez, and Hernandez can all be above average in this category.

At the end of the day, I think I filled my needs at the three major categories and with any luck I can have a strong, five-category offense.

Pitchers

POS	PLAYER	BID
P	Stephen Strasburg	20
P	Jacob deGrom	17
P	Ken Giles	17
P	Dellin Betances	8
P	Brandon Maurer	5
P	Jon Gray	4
P	Jharel Cotton	1
P	Blake Snell	1
P	Steven Wright	1
	Total	74

I said at the top that I had two names in mind as my top starter and top reliever. Those names, clearly, are Stephen Strasburg and Ken Giles. The former is a guy I just cannot quit. Every year he ends up being the most enticing SP1 on the board for me, and every year I end up at least mildly disappointed. Eventually, though, he’ll put together than top-three SP season, and I won’t miss it. As for Giles, I think he’s the fourth best closer on the board this year and have ended up with him in just about every league. I was hoping he’d be a little cheaper than $17, but this is still a fine price.

To fill out my relief corps, I went with Dellin Betances and Brandon Maurer. It seems to me that people are more and more willing to go after the elite set-up arms in roto this year, but we haven’t quite reached the point of that bubble bursting just yet. Eventually, it will swing too far, but with Betances still in single digits we haven’t reached that point. As for Maurer, I think he is among the more underrated cheap arms among RPs. It’s easy to look at his career 7.6 K/9 and wonder how he’ll survive in a high-leverage role, but he showed last year he can air it out with over a strikeout per inning in short stints. Even over his entire career he has over 9 K/9 as a reliever. My biggest concern with Maurer is that the Padres will trade him, but even then he’ll be a solid set-up man with strong ratios.

As for the rest of the rotation, I needed one more high-end arm before going cheap. That was Jacob deGrom, who I won’t be surprised to see in Cy Young conversations this fall. He’s certainly looked great this spring and I foresee that small drop in strikeouts reversing itself this year. Jon Gray was my first cheap starter, and while Coors Field scares me, the strikeouts will still be there if he can stay on the mound. Jharel Cotton and Blake Snell are upside plays who could be among the highest risers if everything goes according to plan in 2017. Then, there’s Steven Wright, who despite throwing an inherently sporadic pitch is my safety net. He’s not going to dominate like he did in the first half last year, but he’ll pick up the innings and the wins to go along with a solid ERA and enough strikeouts to keep me in it.

Matt Collins is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @MattRyCollins
Click here to see Matt's other articles. You can contact Matt by clicking here