March 24, 2017
Fantasy Auction Values
Fourth Edition, 2017
by Mike Gianella
Below is my fourth bid limit update. As we get closer to Opening Day, the amount of individual bid updates will increase. This update is tied entirely to news and information about Spring Training. Next week’s update is the fifth and final bid limit update and will be chock full of changes based on breaking news as well as on what I saw at the Tout Wars expert auctions, which take place this coming weekend.
Changes of two dollars in either direction will be listed below for players with significant value. Mixed league bids will reflect the same valuation change unless otherwise noted.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Koda Glover $9 (previous $2) (mixed from no bid to $5)
Shawn Kelley $6 (previous $10) (mixed -$9)
There are three closer price shifts this week. The biggest one comes in Washington, where it sounds like Glover is the favored candidate to pitch in the ninth to open the year. Truth be told, I don’t know if I want to go past six dollars for either pitcher but part of the rationale of these bid limits is that I am making call, not merely waffling about an uncertain situation. If your league pays more for saves than the expert leagues do, I recommend pushing your extra money toward one of the top three or four relievers and not toward Glover/Kelley or one of the other uncertain bullpens in the National League.
Raisel Iglesias $8 (previous $10). (mixed no change)
Drew Storen $3 (previous $1) (not added to mixed)
Closer update number two (tee hee, number two) comes out of Cincinnati, where an MRI turned up a bone bruise for Iglesias. This is good news, but it does make his Opening Day availability questionable. I moved Storen up two dollars as a placeholder, but if you prefer Michael Lorenzen, feel free to make him your Iglesias back-up instead.
Greg Holland $9 (previous $2). (mixed, no bid to $6)
Adam Ottavino $3 (previous $9) (mixed -2)
Of the three closer job battles profiled here, this the bullpen I am most certain about. Holland has the contract. If he has the health he should have the job.
Yasmani Grandal $17 (previous $15)
After compiling my bids for Tout Wars, I noticed how thin the catching pool is in the National League. I have six catchers in NL-only with a bid limit of $10 or more, and this includes Cameron Rupp, who I don’t exactly trust at this price. Grandal could easily mash 30 home runs if he stays healthy, and even if he doesn’t, scarcity pushes his price up in this update.
David Dahl $12 (previous $15)
Perhaps I’m overreacting to Dahl’s injury, but the reports out of Rockies’ camp continue to sound ominous. Given the multiple options in the Rockies’ outfield and in NL-only outfields as well, I prefer to let someone take this gamble in redraft leagues.
Denard Span $8 (previous $11)
There are few options in Giants’ camp to replace Span if he goes south, but I’m reluctant to pay the full freight for an oft-injured, aging hitter having a bad spring.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
J.D. Martinez $22 (previous $27)
This projection assumes Martinez misses about a month. Martinez is scheduled for CT scan later today, so this update will seem mostly reasonable or completely incorrect by the end of today.
Danny Salazar $16 (previous $14)
Except for yesterday’s outing against Colorado, Salazar has been terrific this spring. If he’s healthy, he is a candidate for 200 strikeouts.
Francisco Rodriguez $12 (previous $14)
This adjustment is not based on new information, but rather is a market update based on Rodriguez’s skills compared to the rest of the closer pool. He has job security, but should be treated like a lower end saves option in AL-only, and not a mid-tier option like my previous bid limit may have implied.
Yoan Moncada $12 (previous $10)
He won’t be up on Opening Day, but Moncada’s impressive Spring and the lack of thrilling options in front of him push his price up a couple of bucks.
Greg Bird $12 (previous $7) (Mixed, added at $3)
Chris Carter $6 (previous $9)
Bird was named the starter in New York at first base, and gets a big bump. While Carter could easily push past this projection, I try to avoid paying par for part-time players, even in AL-only.
Cam Bedrosian $11 (previous $8) (Mixed +5)
My faith in Bedrosian is growing daily. Now that I’ve said this, watch Mike Scioscia tab Andrew Bailey as the closer.
Didi Gregorius $10 (previous $12) (Mixed -1)
Didi will miss about a month of the regular season due to a right shoulder injury. I did not give Tyler Wade a bid, in case you were wondering, but it is safe to bid two or three-dollars on Wade in AL-only this weekend.
Sonny Gray $9 (previous $11) (Mixed -1)
This is an injury update I probably should have made in the last update. The recent reports on Gray’s lat have been positive, but his injury history doesn’t make me want to push him into double digits.
Ryan Madson $7 (previous $9) (Mixed -1)
The Athletics are talking about the dreaded “closer by committee”. Santiago Casilla is the pitcher most likely to benefit is the A’s take this route, but Ryan Dull, Sean Doolittle or even John Axford could see some saves as well.
Mike Gianella is an author of Baseball Prospectus.
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Fantasy Auction Values... (03/17)
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Playoff Prospectus: PECOTA Odds and ALCS Gam...
Still A Susac Believer ?
What about Manny Pina ?
Just a Spring Star ?
It's a fairly low end bid for him, so while I do believe he'll play at some point this year, I'm not going to push him too far.
Pina profiles primarily as a backup. The batting average shouldn't hurt but I can't see him hitting more than 10-12 home runs even if he gets all the at bats behind the plate.