March 23, 2017

Fantasy Freestyle

Reviewing the 2016 Model Portfolios

by Greg Wellemeyer

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Our positional coverage is all wrapped up and draft season is drawing to a close as Opening Day nears. One series we’ll be rolling out starting next week is My Model Portfolio, wherein our staff members will each pick a roster using Mike Gianella’s final bid limits, which will be published tomorrow.

Before we get there, though, how about a little accountability on last year’s picks? I’m judging these purely based on how much difference there was between Mike’s preseason bid limits and his postseason retrospective valuations. There is no consideration for roster balance or categorical strength, this is purely an evaluation of whose draft day roster created the most raw profit over the course of the season.

9^th Place: Jeff Quinton, -$65 Profit

POSITION	PLAYER	PRICE	EARNINGS	PROFIT
C	Kyle Schwarber	23	-8	-31
1B	Chris Davis	27	11	-16
2B	Brandon Phillips	7	17	10
3B	Todd Frazier	22	17	-5
SS	Troy Tulowitzki	21	9	-12
CI	Matt Adams	1	3	2
MI	Chris Owings	1	13	12
OF	Christian Yelich	16	21	5
OF	Ben Revere	16	1	-15
OF	Brett Gardner	14	11	-3
OF	Stephen Piscotty	8	17	9
OF	Delino DeShields	7	1	-6
UT	David Ortiz	15	28	13
UT	Kendrys Morales	8	14	6
TOTAL		186	155	-31

POSITION	PLAYER	PRICE	EARNINGS	PROFIT
P	Chris Archer	16	14	-2
P	Cole Hamels	13	17	4
P	Marcus Stroman	11	7	-4
P	Steven Matz	10	11	1
P	Patrick Corbin	5	-17	-22
P	Gio Gonzalez	4	6	2
P	Andrew Cashner	2	-16	-18
P	Juan Nicasio	2	5	3
P	Dellin Betances	9	11	2
TOTAL		74	38	-34

What Worked: “Regarding the UT spot, we have discussed at length the reasons why we overrate having options and thusly underrate players that restrict options—such as DH-only players like Ortiz and Morales—so in a game where options are not taken away (like a draft or auction) I will happily take option reducing players if I think they are being discounted in the least.”

What Didn’t: “I liked chances of many of the $8-$16 outfielders to return $20-plus value more so than I liked the expected outcomes of the more expensive (or less expensive) outfielders once I factored in cost. This is especially true for the “speed” options, such as Revere, Gardner, and DeShields.”

The Verdict: Schwarber’s negative $31 profit reveals the flaw in this exercise right out of the gate, as Jeff would have replaced him as soon as the ACL tore and saved himself a good chunk of that loss. Even so, this team would have been done in by double-digit losses from several of its heaviest draft day investments.

8^th Place: Matt Collins. -$40 Profit

POSITION	PLAYER	PRICE	EARNINGS	PROFIT
C	Travis D’Arnaud	16	-1	-17
1B	Joey Votto	27	29	2
2B	Ian Kinsler	17	26	9
SS	Ketel Marte	4	4	0
3B	Justin Turner	5	17	12
CI	Wil Myers	8	26	18
MI	Cory Spangenberg	1	-3	-4
OF	Lorenzo Cain	27	14	-13
OF	Justin Upton	24	15	-9
OF	Gregory Polanco	18	17	-1
OF	Shin-Soo Choo	15	1	-14
OF	Ender Inciarte	9	14	5
U	Delino DeShields	7	1	-6
U	Chris Carter	4	12	8
TOTAL		182	172	-10

POSITION	PLAYER	PRICE	EARNINGS	PROFIT
P	Stephen Strasburg	23	20	-3
P	Garrett Richards	12	1	-11
P	Drew Smyly	8	4	-4
P	Jose Quintana	6	20	14
P	Wei-Yin Chen	4	1	-3
P	Jose Berrios	1	-25	-26
P	Zach Britton	15	25	10
P	Sean Doolittle	8	3	-5
P	Keone Kela	1	-1	-2
TOTAL		78	48	-30

What Worked: “On my pitching staff, I’m looking to lead my bullpen with the cheapest among Ken Giles, Zach Britton, and Cody Allen... Britton ended up being the cheapest. Building a relief corps around a pitcher with a double-digit K/9 and a historic groundball rate is a good start.”

What Didn’t: “In the outfield, I wanted to start with one of the power/speed guys, and Cain was a dollar cheaper than Starling Marte and Charlie Blackmon.”

The Verdict: Nice to see Collins, who writes our Closer Report, nail his bullpen anchor. Injuries (Cain, Choo, D’Arnaud, Richards) sunk this squad, to say nothing of the $26 Berrios took away thanks an 8.02 ERA and 1.87 WHIP in 58.1 major league innings, less volume and far worse performance than anyone expected.

7^th Place: Wilson Karaman, $-22 Profit

POSITION	PLAYER	PRICE	EARNINGS	PROFIT
C	J.T. Realmuto	7	15	8
1B	Adrian Gonzalez	18	14	-4
2B	Rougned Odor	15	22	7
3B	Maikel Franco	17	11	-6
SS	Brad Miller	5	12	7
MI	Cory Spangenberg	1	-3	-4
CI	Adrian Beltre	15	22	7
OF	Bryce Harper	42	18	-24
OF	Mookie Betts	33	39	6
OF	Stephen Piscotty	8	17	9
OF	Joc Pederson	7	10	3
OF	Delino DeShields	7	1	-6
U	Lucas Duda	15	0	-15
U	Byron Buxton	11	3	-8
TOTAL		201	181	-20

POSITION	PLAYER	PRICE	EARNINGS	PROFIT
P	Danny Salazar	14	9	-5
P	Hisashi Iwakuma	9	9	0
P	Jeff Samardzija	7	14	7
P	Wei-Yin Chen	4	1	-3
P	Anthony DeSclafani	2	9	7
P	Eduardo Rodriguez	1	1	0
P	Jonathan Papelbon	12	2	-10
P	Sean Doolittle	8	3	-5
P	Jeremy Jeffress	2	9	7
TOTAL		59	57	-2

What Worked: “Piscotty’s just a solid hitter in the making, with the ability to post a fine average and rack up decent counting stat totals in three of the four remaining categories. It’s weird to call a second-year hitter safe, but he has the skill set of a player who can return low-teens dollar value with a full season of at-bats even if he doesn’t hit the upper ends of his projection range.”

What Didn’t: “Sweet Bryce, do it for me twice. Harper showed the world what he’s capable of last year, and anything close to a repeat performance by the reigning NL MVP would get me started down a proper trail toward the crown.”

The Verdict: Tough to measure up when the guy you drop the most coin on earns less than half of it back. That, along with an injury to Duda, an extended stint in Triple-A for Buxton, and having Jonathan Papelbon on his team combined to wash out several nice calls that resulted in gains of $6-9.

6^th Place: J.P. Breen, -$3 Profit

POSITION	PLAYER	PRICE	EARNINGS	PROFIT
C	Yan Gomes	12	-10	-22
1B	Chris Carter	4	12	8
2B	Dee Gordon	32	12	-20
3B	Nolan Arenado	31	30	-1
SS	Ketel Marte	4	4	0
CI	Danny Valencia	2	11	9
MI	Devon Travis	2	11	9
OF	Charlie Blackmon	28	32	4
OF	Mookie Betts	33	39	6
OF	Denard Span	6	11	5
OF	Adam Eaton	16	17	1
OF	Stephen Piscotty	8	17	9
UT	David Peralta	13	0	-13
UT	Jonathan Schoop	6	14	8
TOTAL		197	200	3

POSITION	PLAYER	PRICE	EARNINGS	PROFIT
P	Noah Syndergaard	18	26	8
P	Craig Kimbrel	18	11	-7
P	Carlos Carrasco	16	15	-1
P	Patrick Corbin	5	-17	-22
P	Clay Buchholz	2	1	-1
P	Robbie Ray	1	2	1
P	Matt Moore	1	10	9
P	Nathan Eovaldi	1	2	1
P	Vincent Velasquez	1	7	6
TOTAL		63	57	-6

What Worked: “Much like Adam Lind last year, the Milwaukee Brewers offer great power potential for fringe everyday first basemen. Fantasy owners shouldn’t undersell the fact that Carter’s new club should be able to overlook his obvious flaws and give him 500-plus plate appearances.”

What Didn’t: “Too many people are overlooking Gomes due to an injury-riddled campaign. The dude can hit and should threaten the elusive 20-home-run mark at the catcher position.”

The Verdict: J.P. did an awesome job identifying values at the back-end of his roster. He spent $10 on his seven cheapest players, and they combined to earn $44 of value. Unfortunately for J.P., four other players combined for $77 of loss because of injury (Peralta), suspension (Gordon) , and disastrous performance (Gomes, Corbin).

5^th Place: Greg Wellemeyer, $-1 Profit

POSITION	PLAYER	PRICE	EARNINGS	PROFIT
C	Buster Posey	27	16	-11
1B	Eric Hosmer	20	16	-4
2B	Ben Zobrist	6	15	9
SS	Xander Bogaerts	21	25	4
3B	Maikel Franco	17	11	-6
CI	Pedro Alvarez	5	5	0
MI	Francisco Lindor	17	25	8
OF	Justin Upton	24	15	-9
OF	Gregory Polanco	18	17	-1
OF	Stephen Piscotty	8	17	9
OF	Delino Deshields	7	1	-6
OF	Marcell Ozuna	4	12	8
UT	C.J. Cron	3	9	6
UT	Jake Lamb	1	15	14
TOTAL		178	199	21

POSITION	PLAYER	PRICE	EARNINGS	PROFIT
P	Corey Kluber	19	29	10
P	Noah Syndergaard	18	26	8
P	Dallas Keuchel	18	5	-13
P	Patrick Corbin	5	-17	-22
P	Erasmo Ramirez	1	4	3
P	Nathan Eovaldi	1	2	1
P	Dellin Betances	9	11	2
P	Jake McGee	8	0	-8
P	Arodys Vizcaino	3	0	-3
TOTAL		82	60	-22

What Worked: “I was down to a buck after signing everyone else up and Lamb was my favorite of the $1 options. He earned $3 in his rookie season despite missing time and playing through an injury. There’s more power coming and he won’t be a zero elsewhere.”

What Didn’t: “This feels a little like cheating because the speed guys always come out higher on pure valuation than the market is willing to pay on draft day. Still, I like DeShields as one of only a small handful of players that could swipe 40.”

The Verdict: I had one of the better offensive units among the nine participants despite below-average seasons from Posey and Upton, my two most expensive players. My pitching, on the other hand, was one of the worst collections in the group. Kluber and Thor both delivered SP1 earnings at SP2 prices, but the rest of my picks were simply poor choices.

4^th Place: Bret Sayre, $1 Profit

POSITION	PLAYER	PRICE	EARNINGS	PROFIT
C	Welington Castillo	5	6	1
1B	Pedro Alvarez	5	5	0
2B	Anthony Rendon	20	18	-2
SS	Jung-ho Kang	7	7	0
3B	Danny Valencia	2	11	9
CI	Chris Carter	4	12	8
MI	Ketel Marte	4	4	0
OF	Bryce Harper	42	18	-24
OF	Starling Marte	28	30	2
OF	George Springer	27	18	-9
OF	Hanley Ramirez	15	22	7
OF	Denard Span	6	11	5
DH	David Ortiz	15	28	13
DH	Leonys Martin	3	14	11
TOTAL		183	204	21

POSITION	PLAYER	PRICE	EARNINGS	PROFIT
P	Noah Syndergaard	18	26	8
P	Cole Hamels	13	17	4
P	Shelby Miller	8	-23	-31
P	Patrick Corbin	5	-17	-22
P	Joe Ross	4	6	2
P	Ervin Santana	1	11	10
P	Matt Moore	1	10	9
P	Zach Britton	15	25	10
P	Jonathan Papelbon	12	2	-10
TOTAL		77	57	-20

What Worked: “I’m absolutely fine being the one everyone thinks is too high on Ramirez. The outfield didn’t work out, but he hit when his shoulder was healthy (as he pretty much always has), and his shoulder is healthy now.”

What Didn’t: “Miller’s DRA (3.14) from 2015 suggests that his strong season was not a mirage, and despite not having the top-flight strikeout numbers some thought he would, he remains a solid SP3 in most formats. Corbin would be higher if there wasn’t the concern over an innings limit in his first full season back from Tommy John. Without any restriction, he’d be a $15 pitcher for me, easily.”

The Verdict: Overcoming a $53 bath on the Diamondbacks pair and a similarly disastrous minus-$24 from your priciest buy is a hell of an accomplishment. You can chalk it up to a pile of $7-13 returns, nearly all of which came from underpriced veterans doing what they do rather than youngsters realizing their upside.

3^rd Place: George Bissell, $39 Profit

POSITION	PLAYER	PRICE	EARNINGS	PROFIT
C	Blake Swihart	9	-4	-13
1B	Albert Pujols	15	18	3
2B	Addison Russell	13	9	-4
SS	Francisco Lindor	17	25	8
3B	Kyle Seager	19	18	-1
CI	Danny Valencia	2	11	9
MI	Logan Forsythe	5	11	6
OF	Mookie Betts	33	39	6
OF	J.D. Martinez	26	16	-10
OF	Billy Hamilton	17	24	7
OF	Corey Dickerson	14	6	-8
OF	Ben Zobrist	6	15	9
UTIL	Alex Rodriguez	5	-1	-6
UTIL	Javier Baez	1	12	11
TOTAL		182	199	17

POSITION	PLAYER	PRICE	EARNINGS	PROFIT
P	Carlos Carrasco	16	15	-1
P	Adam Wainwright	16	4	-12
P	Cole Hamels	13	17	4
P	Marcus Stroman	11	7	-4
P	Dellin Betances	9	11	2
P	Jose Quintana	6	20	14
P	John Lackey	4	21	17
P	Eduardo Rodriguez	1	1	0
P	R.A. Dickey	1	3	2
TOTAL		77	99	22

What Worked: “While Lindor is being touted as an obvious regression candidate in the power department (which is completely fair given his career minor-league numbers), a shortstop that can hit double-digit home runs, eclipse 20 stolen bases and hit at least .280 is an extremely valuable commodity. From where I stand, he’s a bargain at $17.”

What Didn’t: “At his apex, which could still potentially be years away, Blake Swihart has the upside to become the top catcher in fantasy baseball not named Buster Posey or Kyle Schwarber. He showed glimpses of his lofty offensive ceiling in the second half of last season, hitting .303/.353/.452 over 168 post-All-Star break plate appearances. He’s one of only a handful of catchers with legitimate fantasy upside and at the very least he won’t be a drag on my roster’s batting average.”

The Verdict: Good on George (and others) for touting Quintana last preseason. In retrospect, it’s embarrassing that only three of us took him at $6 and five of us (me included) spent $5 on Corbin, who had a shorter track record and was objectively worse, not to still mention still working his way back from TJ. Guess we needed to see Quintana throw almost 1,000 innings before believing. I had to go back and look at Lackey’s stat line when I saw he earned $21. I assumed he must’ve won 18 games or so, but no, he won 11. I guess that’s what a 3.35 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, and 180 strikeouts over nearly 190 innings is worth?

2^nd Place: J.J. Jansons, $45 Profit

POSITION	PLAYER	PRICE	EARNINGS	PROFIT
C	Wilson Ramos	5	16	11
1B	Paul Goldschmidt	44	33	-11
2B	Starlin Castro	6	12	6
SS	Carlos Correa	36	18	-18
3B	Manny Machado	40	23	-17
CI	Danny Valencia	2	11	9
MI	Marcus Semien	6	12	6
OF	Adam Eaton	16	17	1
OF	Ender Inciarte	9	14	5
OF	Stephen Piscotty	8	17	9
OF	Odubel Herrera	5	21	16
OF	Matt Holliday	5	5	0
DH	Mark Trumbo	9	20	11
DH	C.J. Cron	3	9	6
TOTAL		194	228	34

POSITION	PLAYER	PRICE	EARNINGS	PROFIT
P	Chris Archer	17	14	-3
P	Carlos Carrasco	16	15	-1
P	Raisel Iglesias	7	9	2
P	Jose Quintana	6	20	14
P	Yordano Ventura	6	2	-4
P	Patrick Corbin	5	-17	-22
P	Anthony DeSclafani	2	9	7
P	Alex Colome	5	16	11
P	Jeremy Jeffress	2	9	7
TOTAL		66	77	11

What Worked: “I decided to scour the reliever market for cheap saves, which is one of my (least) favorite things to do in general. I settled on Alex Colome for $5 as I think he has a strong chance to be the primary closer for the entirety of the season, even after Brad Boxberger returns and presumably continues to walk everybody in sight.”

What Didn’t: “With Goldschmidt, Correa, and Machado anchoring the offense, what could go wrong? Seriously though, this team obviously needs the three superstars to stay healthy and produce to have any chance.”

The Verdict: I included that last quote because it’s kind of amazing that J.J.’s team performed as well as it did on aggregate with its three core superstars bringing back negative $46. They were J.J.’s only three offensive players to come back in the red, as he was able to at least break even at every other position. The pitching staff had a similar theme, overcoming a big loss on Corbin with balance and a couple opportunistic bullpen selections.

1^st Place: Scooter Hotz, $80 Profit

POSITION	PLAYER	PRICE	EARNINGS	PROFIT
C	Yasmani Grandal	13	6	-7
1B	Brandon Belt	14	12	-2
2B	Ben Zobrist	6	15	9
SS	Jean Segura	9	34	25
3B	Maikel Franco	17	11	-6
MI	Jonathan Schoop	6	14	8
CI	Daniel Murphy	11	30	19
OF	George Springer	27	18	-9
OF	Carlos Gomez	25	7	-18
OF	Justin Upton	24	15	-9
OF	David Peralta	13	0	-13
OF	Kevin Kiermaier	5	10	5
UT	Hanley Ramirez	15	22	7
UT	Mike Napoli	1	15	14
TOTAL		186	209	23

POSITION	PLAYER	PRICE	EARNINGS	PROFIT
P	Matt Moore	1	10	9
P	Corey Kluber	19	29	10
P	Noah Syndergaard	18	26	8
P	Chris Archer	17	14	-3
P	Wei-Yin Chen	4	1	-3
P	John Lackey	4	21	17
P	Aaron Nola	5	3	-2
P	Roberto Osuna	4	18	14
P	Jeremy Jeffress	2	9	7
TOTAL		74	131	57

What Worked: “On the pitching side, I just wanted to find value in whatever shape it took. Judging from the values I’ve been seeing, that would probably mean no pitchers for $25+ and several pitchers in the high teens or low twenties.”

What Didn’t: “Five of my fifteen hitters are projected by the PFM for double-digit totals in both HR and SB (Springer, Upton, Gomez, Ramirez, Murphy). Three more hitters missed double-digit projections in both HR and SB by only one or two stolen bases (Zobrist, Belt, Peralta).”

The Verdict: Segura and Murphy were the two most profitable players among the nine entries and Scooter’s was the only roster with either, much less both. It was his pitching staff that brought the title home, though. This was the only unit that didn’t have a double-digit drag. He found two SP1 at SP2 prices, got a little lucky with two bullpen arms for whom there was role uncertainty when Mike released his values, and got steady production in between, Also, Lackey. I still don’t’ really get it. Congrats, Scooter.

Greg Wellemeyer is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @gregwellemeyer
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