BP Comment Quick Links
March 22, 2017 Looking Back on TomorrowBaltimore Orioles
Between now and Opening Day, we'll be previewing each team with a focus on answering the question: "How will this team be remembered?" For the full archive of each 2017 team preview, click here. PECOTA Orioles Projections No, Orioles fans, this is not the article that concedes that the the 2017 iteration of the Charm City squad will have finally, once and for all, murdered PECOTA (in the warehouse, with a baseball bat). No, PECOTA would have died a gruesome death years ago if that were going to happen, likely at the hands of a riotous Royals crowd (in the fountains, with poison-laced BBQ sauce).
For as much recent success as the Orioles have garnered, they’re generally remembered more for things that haven’t happened than for things that have. Case(s) in point:
That last one is what really stands out, recency bias aside. Despite top-end draft picks spent on high-octane arms, the Orioles have reaped relatively few rewards. If you take all the arms they’ve drafted in the first five rounds over the last 10 years, here is how they shake out:
Only Givens, Bundy, Wright, Gausman, Tarpley, Hess, and the extremely recent draft picks avoided a non-negative fate above, and Tarpley was traded to the Pirates. That’s a brutal track record any way you slice it. And finding meaningful seasons from an Orioles-developed starter is a case study in the phrase “few and far between.” Kevin Gausman registered a 3.4 WARP season for the O’s in 2016, and the previous starting pitcher they developed to do so for them was ... wait for it ... Erik Bedard and his 7.5-win monster 2007 season.
But beyond the lack of development in terms of their own prospects, the Orioles have struggled to find dynamic pitching performances from any of their starting pitchers, whether they’ve developed them or not. The free agent market has featured more “miss” than the O’s starters can generate with their pitches, with Ubaldo Jimenez and Yovani Gallardo providing meager returns and Wade Miley struggling after being acquired via trade. Wei-Yin Chen stands out for his adequacy (if this is even possible), but one mid-rotation starter won’t cover these multitude of sins, and even their overseas success is mitigated by the presence of Tsuyoshi Wada. The list below name-checks every Orioles starter, developed in-house or not, to produce a three-win-or-better season since 2007:
That’s
With Kevin Gausman and a healthy Dylan Bundy on the roster, the O’s have two high-octane arms that could anchor the front of a rotation. Gausman is most of the way there, and likely the better bet of the two guys to do it. The former fourth overall pick has long searched for a competent breaking ball to pair with his potent fastball and devastating split-change, and he just might have found it in the curveball that he threw 13 percent of the time last year. In July of 2016 he told Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun that he was becoming more comfortable with his breaking ball, in part by not defining it as a slider or curve:
Despite the strong 2016 season, Gausman grades out rather poorly in terms of his called strike probability and CSAA. If he can take a step forward in his command and control—not unreasonable for someone with his athleticism—and crack the 200-inning plateau, it’s not hard to see Gausman producing a five-win season, something only 12 pitchers accomplished in 2016.
The other former fourth overall pick is more of a flier to accomplish this feat, but let’s not discount his pedigree. Much was made about Bundy’s velocity tapering off after a strong conversion to the rotation, but he still managed over 94 miles per hour on his fastball in August and September, as he was pushed past 100 innings despite tallying a mere 22 innings in 2015. It’s possible the exhaustion of an extended season played a significant part in Bundy’s home run woes, given that he surrendered half of the 18 homers he allowed on the season over the course of his final eight starts.
It’s easy to see the Orioles taking it easy on Bundy following how hard they rode him last year, but they might not have that luxury in the highly competitive AL East. If he throws 150-plus innings of high-end baseball, he could well be in shouting distance of a five-win season. Clayton Kershaw managed 5.5 wins in 149 innings, after all, and pretty much anyone can replicate a Kershaw season. If he can tamp down on his home runs allowed, it would be a big first step toward attaining that ceiling. As much of a lark as it might be to think Bundy could reach such heights, we shouldn’t put it past a pitcher of his raw talent to pitch at a front-end clip, for as long as the O’s will let him go.
While there are no sure things in this world, the Orioles haven’t been better poised to receive a front of the rotation-type performance from one (or two) of their starters in recent memory. If it comes to fruition, we won’t forget it.
Craig Goldstein is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @cdgoldstein
7 comments have been left for this article.
|
That's 10 years of arm futility Craig, not 5.
I don't believe I said five anywhere? If so, could you be more specific and I'll amend it. Cheers!
Looks like one of my fellow editors beat me to your comment and changed it before I could review. Thanks for letting us know.